Analytical Articles

In the aftermath of the Iraqi war, leaders and countries in the Caspian littoral are competing to obtain maximum geopolitical and economic advantage by attracting investors through lower bureaucratic barriers and reduced political risk. The Iraq war has generated rethinking on the part of regional governments, who now have to adapt to a more competitive situation. Iran’s stance is still ambiguous with contradicting hard and soft lines, while some Balkan operators are beginning to involve in the pipeline discussion.

Speaking at a Washington event, the former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Ross Wilson underlined the Host Government Agreements (HGA) concluded between energy companies and governments of the transit countries for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline (BTC) as an outstanding example of regional cooperation and the most positive development during his recently concluded tenure in Baku. However, the BTC pipeline has come under increasing fire on specious grounds advocated by human rights and environmental groups, endangering an infrastructural project that is widely supported by the population in the region, and is set to benefit the economy of the Caucasus positively.

The alleged coup attempt against President Saparmurat Niyazov in November 2002 unleashed a new wave of repression within Turkmenistan, ultimately resulting in hundreds of arrests, draconian restrictions on both internal and foreign travel for Turkmen citizens and the revocation of a dual citizenship agreement with Russia. Although widely believed to have been staged by the President\'s own security forces, new information revealed by one of Niyazov\'s most prominent rivals indicates that the attack was a failed coup attempt organized and carried out by former foreign minister Boris Shikhmuradov and his fellow oppositionists. Regardless of who was responsible for the attack, Niyazov has managed to bounce back from the incident, seizing the opportunity to incarcerate some of his major opponents and to atomize Shikhmuradov\'s People\'s Democratic Movement of Turkmenistan.

Despite President George W. Bush’s and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reassurances of strong mutual friendship during the celebration of the 300th anniversary of the founding of St. Petersburg in early June, the U.S. presence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia remains a major issue in the often-tense relationship between the U.S. and Russia. Russian political elites acknowledge that the presence of Western oil companies in Central Asia and the South Caucasus and the U.S. war against terrorism have attracted long-term American political and military presence there.

China is increasingly becoming a dominant actor in trade and investments all across Central Asia. This is the case not only in steel and energy, but also in areas dominated by small and medium size enterprises. As Central Asia is increasingly relying on China for trade, interdependence grows – China’s western provinces become increasingly reliant on Central Asia as well. Moreover, increasing Chinese investments is displacing Russia’s dominant role in the Central Asian economies. China aims of a 50-fold increase in trade in ten years may be utopian, but it nevertheless is set to become the dominant economic actor in the region.

The resignation of Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Imangali Tasmagambetov on 11 June, followed by the swift parliamentary approval given to the appointment of Daniyal Akhmetov, the Governor of Pavlodar, as his successor on 13 June might, at first glance, appear merely to indicate the willingness of the country’s executive and legislature to move quickly to seek resolution of the long-running dispute over land privatisation. However, the events of the last week in Astana also have the potential to impact beyond the agrarian sector, to the broader national policy-making process, and could even possibly reshape the fabric of Kazakhstan’s political system itself.

Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov praised Turkmenistan\'s relations with Uzbekistan in mid-May less than six months after the Uzbek ambassador was declared persona non grata. He was subsequently forced to leave Ashgabad as he was accused of involvement in a November 2002 assassination attempt against Niyazov. The Turkmen authorities described the assassination attempt as a failed coup. As evident in Niyazov\'s remark, the sudden change of attitude towards Uzbekistan indicates Ashgabad\'s efforts to break its mainly self-imposed isolation. Abrupt changes in its policies, such as its May decision to withdraw from the dual-citizenship agreement with Russia, have worsened this situation.

For the last 10 years, President of Turkmenistan Saparmurad Niyazov became famous, among other extraordinary actions, by the announcement of a number of gas pipeline projects in every possible direction, which never materialized. After being subdued to Russian dominance because of a foreign-orchestrated assassination attempt, the Turkmen president came up with another pipeline project: Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-Russia, in addition to already existing and operating 5 pipelines in the Northern direction. This raises questions as to the implications for Turkmenistan, but also regarding the developing international environment in Central Asia.

The Islamic radical party Hizb-ut-Tahrir has recently been issuing aggressive new statements throughout southern Kazakhstan, calling for jihad against the U.S. and Britain. In a clear attempt to make political gains from regional uneasiness about the recent war in Iraq, this propaganda offensive points to a deviation from the party\'s usual targets of criticism; secular regional governments and the state of Israel. While such propaganda is unlikely to find a receptive audience in Kazakhstan, the Kazakh government of Nursultan Nazarbayev will have to act wisely in stemming the potential influence of a party which has proved elsewhere to be capable of thriving amid rigid controls by the state.

On May 28 and 29, the Heads of State of the Member Nations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) met in Moscow to transform the SCO from a mere talk shop to a \"full-fledged\" international organization. While it remains to be seen how long these new commitments will last, the SCO has received a new infusion of life that should allow it to develop rapidly in the short-term. Still many questions remain about the true intentions of the individual SCO members and what role the organization will play in the rapidly changing strategic environment of Central Asia and the balance-of-power diplomacy of China, Russia, and the United States.