Analytical Articles

Russia is skillfully capitalizing on the sensitive pre-election period in Georgia. President Vladimir Putin is trying to obtain substantial concessions from President Eduard Shevardnadze of Georgia, without promising much in return. A recently concluded deal by RAO UES on purchase of electricity generation and distribution assets, and current attempts by Gazprom to take over the natural gas pipeline and distribution networks in Georgia, may have significant political consequences not only for Georgia, but also for the entire region and U.S. interests there. The primary measure to mitigate this risk is to increase Western security guarantees and engagement through NATO structures.

Military reform in Uzbekistan is aimed at creating a small, mobile and well-equipped army, to deal effectively with any external threats to national security, the main threat stemming from terrorism. The U.S. and Uzbekistan signed a ‘strategic partnership’ agreement in 2002, solidifying the relationship between the two states. The course of military reform has placed Uzbekistan’s armed forces ahead of regional neighbors and will nevertheless require further commitment and international support, possibly testing the strength of the U.S.—Uzbek partnership, if it is to achieve the transformation that is envisaged by the leadership in Tashkent.

By all accounts the U.S.-Turkish alliance is under severe strain if not in danger of coming apart. At present, it is likely that Turkey’s post-conflict policies regarding Iraq will conflict with American policy there, and that this will also cause grave discord among the two allies in other critical theaters like the Caucasus, with possibly profound repercussions there. Those repercussions are particularly important with regard to Azerbaijan since it is clear that regime change there is imminent and could likely be accompanied by severe instability that jeopardizes both American and Turkish interests which are sizable and in Turkey’s case, arguably vital.

On August 4, ailing Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev’s son Ilham was appointed prime minister, thus paving the way for his ultimate election to the presidency. Although the move was long expected, it was received as a shock by many in the country. Opposition parties immediately labeled the appointment as “illegal” and a “seizure of power”, but seemed completely unprepared for the event. Given the weakness of the opposition, the main challenge to Ilham Aliyev’s position may sooner come from within the ruling elite itself. For now, the ruling Party remains united on the surface, but Ilham Aliyev’s ability to maintain control over the party, prevent an internal coup, and avoid foreign interference will determine his political future.

On July 16 a Kyrgyz civilian was shot dead by Uzbek border guards on the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border near the town of Karasuu of Kyrgyzstan’s Osh province. This is not the first event of this kind between signatories of an “Eternal Friendship” agreement of 1996, but the latest in a long line of incidents. The death of 21-year old Adyljan Urkinbaev highlights the increasing difficulties that local people have been facing from growing isolation and tightening border regimes. While a peaceful resolution of the situation is desperately needed, no cooperative efforts on the part of Bishkek and Tashkent can be seen. In a state of increasing border-related tensions at the local level, the latent tension may easily turn into an open conflict.

The American and British invasion of Iraq triggered a noticeable increase in the number of attacks on the U.S.-led coalition forces and their Afghan allies in Afghanistan. Though the Taliban and other anti-US groups were involved in such attacks even before the occupation of Iraq, their campaign has assumed urgency in recent months. The US military officials have conceded that the number of attacks against their troops doubled in the spring of 2003 and became more sophisticated. Regrouped and willing to take risks, Taliban military commanders are now threatening to extend their theatre of operations from their strongholds in southern, southwestern and eastern provinces to northern Afghanistan.

On July 9, a 500-strong mob armed with a truckload of stones, sticks and weapons, attacked and ransacked the Pakistani embassy in Kabul and destroyed almost everything they could get hold of. Afghan Interior Minister Ali Ahmed Jalai traveled to Islamabad to hold “structured talks” with his Pakistani counterparts on the recent escalation in hostility between the two countries. This effort might prove fruitless if the distrust that is there between the two remains. For now, officials of both countries have tried to downplay the incident, but tensions remain high though neither country can afford an escalated conflict.

Both China and Russia have separatist movements in territories that are majority Muslim, China’s Xinjiang and Russia’s Chechnya. Chechnya has been through two brutal wars and suffered numerous acts of terrorism. The character of the Uyghur resistance in Xinjiang has become more violent since 1997, and the rise of militant radicalism in Chechnya offers the Chinese government an important lesson about its policies in Xinjiang.

In 2003, the United States and the European organizations stepped up pressure on three South Caucasus countries to uphold democratic norms. Unprecedented and open diplomatic pressure, backed up by the conditionality of financial assistance will affect the actions of the governments and increases opposition influence on the eve of elections in Azerbaijan and, especially, Georgia. The consensus that seems to be emerging internationally is that the fragile stability achieved by the incumbent regimes in the South Caucasus is unsustainable, and thus counterproductive for the wider Middle East peace policy.

China’s plans to develop its arid northwestern region continue unabated, and entails the exploitation of water resources which could have a significant impact on Xinjiang and on relations with its Central Asian neighbors, especially Kazakhstan. The region’s high water demand stems in large part from increased cotton farming and development of energy resources. However, these development goals may not be environmentally sustainable and could well lead to unrest among the region’s ethnic population. Beijing has relied on the diversion of rivers that neighboring countries, especially Kazakhstan, depend on. Poor management of the region’s water resources could have a negative long term impact both on the stability of Xinjiang and relations between China and Central Asia.