Analytical Articles

As Kyrgyzstan approaches the two-year mark of the April 2010 revolution, its future socio-economic prospects have gone from bad to worse. Anti-foreign investment rhetoric since the parliamentary and presidential elections has encouraged an unprecedented level of instability in the business environment for multinational companies. Foreign development assistance will decline significantly following the 2014 NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan and the 2015 Millennium Development Goals target date, especially given the financial austerity measures demanded by the domestic politics of leading donor countries. Taken together, decreasing foreign investor interest paired with decreasing foreign aid will come to a head in 2015 with serious budget deficits, unemployment and consequently real socio-economic challenges for the country.

Pakistan’s energy resources are increasingly receding and consumption rising. The only solution to this problem is to import gas. The Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline provides the most viable option but international compulsions, especially pressure from Washington and sanctions on Iran, makes it problematic. So far, Islamabad remains firm in its position and is committed to the IP pipeline. Is Islamabad’s recent response to U.S. messages simply posturing in line with the recent state of Islamabad-Washington relations or a realistic assessment of the available options and choices?

The parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan held on January 15, 2012, were criticized by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and other western observers as having failed to “meet fundamental principles of democratic elections.” Yet, the criticism had less to do with the conduct of the elections than with the lack of democratic culture in Kazakhstani politics and society, albeit not stated directly. Rather than holding its elections and political system to the standards of mature democracies, the OSCE should encourage political reforms in Kazakhstan – and other post-Soviet states – by developing a set of measurements that would capture the degree of change from the old traditions and practices.

The Azerbaijani and Turkish governments have endorsed the construction of a Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TAGP, also called TANAP after its initials in Turkish) for carrying natural gas from deposits in the Caspian Sea offshore to European customers. This new project is not part of the European Union’s Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) project, but its advantages are such that, with the backing of Baku and Ankara, knowledgeable observers estimate it to have moved quickly to the “front of the pack” among competing Euro-Caspian natural gas pipeline projects.

From the vantage point of 1991, Kazakhstan has to have made the most unexpected progress of any of the former Soviet Republics. The country has achieved the most dynamic economy, its diplomacy has managed to not only balance but also co-opt nearby great powers, and the country looks free from major external or even internal security threats. The main uncertainties relate to how the country will manage its looming presidential succession and whether Kazakhstan will follow other strong national economies and develop a more pluralistic political system.

The collapse of the USSR intensified the already existing ethnic rivalries between Central Asian ethnicities, which had now formed sovereign states. Tensions are exacerbated by competition for water and other resources and have in some cases made possible military conflict between these states.  Uzbekistan’s conflict with Tajikistan is a telling example, since it has reinforced Tashkent’s desire for regional dominance and underscored the limitations to the role of great powers in the region. Developments over the last few years suggest that conflicts in Central Asia may develop between the regional states themselves as especially control over water is playing an increasingly important role in the geopolitical rivalry.

In January, Azerbaijani authorities made a series of announcements stating they had revealed a plot by three Azerbaijani citizens to assassinate leading members of Azerbaijan’s Jewish community and a prominent Israeli official. Of even higher significance were Baku’s allegations of Hezbollah and Iran being the masterminds of the prepared assassinations. The circumstances around the event signify Azerbaijan’s increasingly difficult relationship with Iran and highlight both the country’s vulnerability to Iranian leverage and its strategic significance as a conduit for intelligence and potential military operations against Iran.

On January 25, NATO-led German forces handed over to Afghan forces control of Badakhshan Province and Balkh Province, bordering Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. By 2014, all 130,000 soldiers in the International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) are scheduled to depart Afghanistan and the U.S. will end its combat mission. On December 29, 2011, U.S. forces evacuated their bases in Panjshir Province, north of Kabul. As U.S. and ISAF forces reduce their footprint in Northern Afghanistan, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) is reclaiming its former bases in the region. Not only will the IMU help the Taliban to reassert authority in Northern Afghanistan; it will also be in prime position to launch operations into Central Asia.

In June 2011, President Obama announced the withdrawal of 10,000 troops from Afghanistan. Another 23,000 are scheduled to pull out by next summer, and all American troops will return home by 2014. Although the U.S. has a clear intention to end the war, some pessimistic voices warn that it will be a critical blow to U.S. security and a retreat in the war on terror. However, a sober analysis shows that the U.S. still has a range of strategic options that would protect major U.S. interests in post-American Afghanistan and minimize the negative consequences of the withdrawal.

Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus recently agreed on a Customs Union and Russia has proclaimed its ambition to create a more integrated political body – the Eurasian Union – in the future. Russia, the largest of the countries involved, has promised that the Union would be based on absolute equality. However, Russia’s approach to Tajikistan – a potential participant of the Union – have put Russian intentions into doubt and have apparently made the other prospective members the Union consider other options to prevent Russia’s absolute domination in the post-Soviet space. Some post-Soviet states have flatly rejected the idea of the Union.