Analytical Articles

On May 22-26, 2012, the Eurovision song contest will be held in Baku, following Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2011 contest. Suggestions by gay rights activists that a gay pride parade will be held in Baku during the contest have disturbed the Islamic government of Iran. Over the last weeks, several Friday prayer preachers, official Iranian broadcasts and conservative newspapers have reflected the objections of the Iranian government, stating that the competition is “immoral” and “anti Islamic.” Iran’s present behavior stands in stark contrast to its indifference toward the participation of Muslim countries in previous Eurovision song contests. Also, gay pride parades have been organized in Turkey since 2003 without Iranian objections.

The elections of the 5th National Assembly of Armenia held on May 6 ended in a landslide victory for the ruling Republican Party (RP) and its coalition partner, the Prosperous Armenia (PA) party. Of nine political parties participating, six entered Parliament including the radical opposition bloc led by the country's first President, Levon Ter-Petrossian. Many reports have been made available about election violations but these have seemingly not influenced the overall results. The fate of the future government is also yet unknown. These elections were the cleanest held in independent Armenia so far and resulted in a consolidated position for the RP in the next parliament.

In early April, Azerbaijani authorities carried out a massive crackdown on presumed Jihadi cells in the northern areas of Azerbaijan (Qakh, Zaqatala, Sheki, and Qusar districts) along with Baku and the republic’s two largest cities after the capital city, Ganja and Sumgait. According to official sources, Ministry for National Security troops detained up to 20 members of the infamous Jihadist group “Forest Brothers.” The operation raises questions about the growing appeal of Jihadist ideology in especially Azerbaijan’s north, as well as the forceful measures applied by the authorities to tackle the problem. 

Following an attack on February 28, 2012 at a market in Yecheng, near China’s border with Tajikistan, the Chairman of the Xinjiang Regional Government said that extremists in East Turkistan and terrorists in neighboring states have one-thousand and one links. On April 6, China’s Ministry for Public Security posted on its website profiles of six Uighur terror suspects who operate in “South Asia” with the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM). The Ministry said it “hopes foreign law enforcement agencies will help arrest the six men and hand them to Chinese authorities.” China saved some face for its all-weather friend by not naming “Pakistan” directly, but China is increasingly concerned about militants in Pakistani territory.

Heated disputes over the allocation of energy and water have been the defining feature of relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan over much of the last decade. Although the distrust between the two countries has deep historical roots, the present tensions revolve primarily around the Rogun Dam project. So far, both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have been unwilling to discuss solutions that would be acceptable to both countries. Yet, without a compromise over Rogun, it is highly unlikely that the strained relations between the two neighboring states will go back to normal. Is compromise over the dam project possible?

In an interview with Russian state television, Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev chided the West for trying to influence other countries through mass and new media, echoing positions long held by the Kremlin. The aging Kazakh leader appeared reasonably healthy and articulate on the issues. But his comments may challenge his long-held multi-vector foreign policy, which sought to advance Kazakhstan’s national interests by balancing those of the West, Russia, and China. With Afghanistan’s future in doubt and domestic stability becoming a question for the first time, Nazarbayev is more openly tying Kazakhstan’s future to Russia.

Next month’s NATO heads-of-state summit in Chicago will likely devote considerable attention to the alliance’s troubled military campaign in Afghanistan. In the eyes of many observers, a NATO failure to consolidate peace in Afghanistan would call into question the organization’s perceived status as the world’s most effective military alliance precisely at a time when NATO leaders are eager to demonstrate its potential contributions to global security with an Asian-focused Washington. Yet, challenges abound, including the prospects for negotiating a peace agreement with the Taliban after years of ineffective counterinsurgency tactics.

Tensions between Iran and the West were exacerbated even further by Israel’s sale of sophisticated weapons to Baku in February this year. The regional states hold differing views on the crisis depending on their interests and geopolitical outlook. In Russia’s case, the objectives are clear. On the one hand, Russia is not interested in a full-fledged war which would hold unpredictable consequences for all parties involved, including Russia itself. On the other hand, it is in Moscow’s interest to keep the area unsafe and unstable as this will improve Moscow’s chances of monopolizing the supply of gas to Europe.

In October 2001, “Operation Enduring Freedom” was launched in Afghanistan as a U.S. retaliation act against Al-Qaida and the Taliban for the 9/11 attacks. Since then, this primary goal of the mission has transformed from sole retaliation to nation- and state- building in this war-torn country. A third aspect of the overall Afghan campaign has recently gained increased interest, namely the role of regional countries in the reconstruction of Afghanistan and regional security problems that will emerge after the withdrawal of international forces from this country by 2014.

A sharp cut in the production forecast of Kyrgyzstan’s lone large industrial enterprise could spell disaster for the country’s finances. A labor strike by workers at the mine in February led to an immediate freeze on production, which led to the company revising its 2012 production forecast from around 600,000 to around 400,000 ounces. The announcement led to an immediate downward revision of Kyrgyzstan’s industrial output and GDP for the first quarter of 2011 by 2 percent. But the government’s growing reliance on indirect taxation for revenues means Bishkek can expect ever greater fallout when the operations of Kumtor are disrupted.