Analytical Articles

In mid-March 2012, the Russian Migration Service announced a halt to the previously introduced simplified procedures for granting Russian citizenship to Kyrgyz labor migrants.  On April 23, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev dismissed his special representative to Kyrgyzstan and denounced the post. The moves came after President Atambaev demanded that the Kremlin pays its arrears for renting military bases on Kyrgyz soil and threatened to close the Russian airbase in Kant. 

The ongoing trials of those indicted for crimes related to labor strikes in the western Kazakhstan city of Zhanaozen appear unlikely to answer questions about the country’s domestic security policy, or prevent repeat incidents. While President Nazarbayev has declared that the striking workers were acting within their rights, and his ambassador to the U.S. insists that the trials will vindicate Kazakhstan’s progress towards the rule of law, the proceedings appear to demonstrate otherwise. Prosecutors have cast a wide net that entangles striking workers, local activists, opposition politicians, and vague foreign instigators in the plot to destabilize social order in the country.

The high profile military exhibition KADEX 2012, held in Astana on May 3-6 underlines a number of security issues intensifying Kazakhstan’s search for foreign defense industry partners. The trend to buy abroad to fill gaps in the modern weapons and equipment inventory is coupled with a desire among the political-military leadership to fundamentally transform the ability of the domestic defense industry to manufacture the hardware and systems needed to conduct future military operations. This will gradually reduce reliance upon foreign, including Russian built, military hardware and is in response to a significant shift in the country’s threat perception contained in the new Military Doctrine signed by President Nursultan Nazarbayev in October 2011.

Bilateral relations between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have deteriorated significantly. In April 2012, Tajikistan’s Embassy in Moscow issued a harsh diplomatic demarche against Uzbekistan, blaming the country for attempting to establish a blockade of Tajikistan. Tashkent responded that it has no such intention. Given the long-lasting fragile relationship between these two Central Asian countries, chiefly over the construction of the Rogun Hydropower Station in Tajikistan, the recent demarche has the potential to cause severe geopolitical implications to the detriment of both countries. While it is frequently suggested that the deadlock can only be resolved through international mediation, solutions should preferably be found between the antagonists themselves.

On May 22-26, 2012, the Eurovision song contest will be held in Baku, following Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2011 contest. Suggestions by gay rights activists that a gay pride parade will be held in Baku during the contest have disturbed the Islamic government of Iran. Over the last weeks, several Friday prayer preachers, official Iranian broadcasts and conservative newspapers have reflected the objections of the Iranian government, stating that the competition is “immoral” and “anti Islamic.” Iran’s present behavior stands in stark contrast to its indifference toward the participation of Muslim countries in previous Eurovision song contests. Also, gay pride parades have been organized in Turkey since 2003 without Iranian objections.

The elections of the 5th National Assembly of Armenia held on May 6 ended in a landslide victory for the ruling Republican Party (RP) and its coalition partner, the Prosperous Armenia (PA) party. Of nine political parties participating, six entered Parliament including the radical opposition bloc led by the country's first President, Levon Ter-Petrossian. Many reports have been made available about election violations but these have seemingly not influenced the overall results. The fate of the future government is also yet unknown. These elections were the cleanest held in independent Armenia so far and resulted in a consolidated position for the RP in the next parliament.

In early April, Azerbaijani authorities carried out a massive crackdown on presumed Jihadi cells in the northern areas of Azerbaijan (Qakh, Zaqatala, Sheki, and Qusar districts) along with Baku and the republic’s two largest cities after the capital city, Ganja and Sumgait. According to official sources, Ministry for National Security troops detained up to 20 members of the infamous Jihadist group “Forest Brothers.” The operation raises questions about the growing appeal of Jihadist ideology in especially Azerbaijan’s north, as well as the forceful measures applied by the authorities to tackle the problem. 

Following an attack on February 28, 2012 at a market in Yecheng, near China’s border with Tajikistan, the Chairman of the Xinjiang Regional Government said that extremists in East Turkistan and terrorists in neighboring states have one-thousand and one links. On April 6, China’s Ministry for Public Security posted on its website profiles of six Uighur terror suspects who operate in “South Asia” with the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM). The Ministry said it “hopes foreign law enforcement agencies will help arrest the six men and hand them to Chinese authorities.” China saved some face for its all-weather friend by not naming “Pakistan” directly, but China is increasingly concerned about militants in Pakistani territory.

Heated disputes over the allocation of energy and water have been the defining feature of relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan over much of the last decade. Although the distrust between the two countries has deep historical roots, the present tensions revolve primarily around the Rogun Dam project. So far, both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have been unwilling to discuss solutions that would be acceptable to both countries. Yet, without a compromise over Rogun, it is highly unlikely that the strained relations between the two neighboring states will go back to normal. Is compromise over the dam project possible?

In an interview with Russian state television, Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev chided the West for trying to influence other countries through mass and new media, echoing positions long held by the Kremlin. The aging Kazakh leader appeared reasonably healthy and articulate on the issues. But his comments may challenge his long-held multi-vector foreign policy, which sought to advance Kazakhstan’s national interests by balancing those of the West, Russia, and China. With Afghanistan’s future in doubt and domestic stability becoming a question for the first time, Nazarbayev is more openly tying Kazakhstan’s future to Russia.