Analytical Articles

There are growing indications that the ongoing transformation of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) from a more narrowly focused collective security organization into a body capable of meeting a much wider set of modern threats is trying to fill potential voids in Central Asian security after the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014. As the CSTO positions itself as the main multilateral vehicle for the Central Asian states to bolster regional security it appears to focus on several key areas: border security, developing rapid reaction and peacekeeping capabilities, reforming its legal mechanisms to act across a wider range of mission types and promoting its image as a genuinely strong political-military alliance.

In May, Turkmenistan’s President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov publicly reviewed the construction plans for a new architectural complex to be built in the capital Ashkhabad commemorating the Turkmen national heroes of the war against Nazism in 1941-1945 and the victims of the devastating Ashkhabad earthquake of 1948. The president’s endorsement came only two weeks following the nationwide celebrations of the Day of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, referred to by Turkmenistan's media for the first time omitting the Soviet epithet “Great Patriotic.” Both moves indicate a further shift away of Turkmenistan from the historical meta-narratives of the Turkmenbashi era entering after Berdimuhamedov’s reelection a new “Epoch of Might and Happiness.”

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has shown interest in Central Asia through its statement on the riots in Xinjiang in 2009 and its demand in 2012 for the release of a female Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) and German Taliban Mujahideen (GTM) financier incarcerated in Germany. AQIM and IJU both aim to create a global Islamic Caliphate and share enemies, such as the U.S., Germany, France, the U.K. and China. With the migration of jihadists from the Afghanistan-Pakistan theatre to hotspots in Somalia and AQIM’s new terrain in Azawad (Mali), coordination will increase between terrorist groups in Africa and Central Asia. The cross-regional networks are already in place and Germany appears to be a hub.

The presidents of Ukraine and Belarus, Viktor Yanukovych and Alexander Lukashenko, both visited Turkmenistan in April 2012. Whereas Ukraine is staunchly opposed to Moscow’s planned Eurasian Union and Belarus is part of a Union State with Russia, both countries are in fact interested in reducing their dependence on Russian gas, which Moscow uses not only for economic but also geopolitical domination. Turkmenistan’s government is in search for new means to deliver its gas to Europe directly rather than through Russia, and has proven responsive to the requests of its fellow post-Soviet states. However, it remains unlikely that Turkmen gas will reach European markets in the near future and China increasingly emerges as a primary alternative.

On June 4 to 6, an intensive shootout occurred on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border in the Gazakh-Tavush area that claimed the lives of five Azerbaijani and three Armenian soldiers. This could be termed just another skirmish in a series of low intensity fighting that costs hundreds of lives on both sides of the conflict. Yet the high death toll and the geographic occurrence of the recent incident far away from the Karabakh front lines evoked debates about the prospects of renewed war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Is the risk of war becoming imminent in this part of the South Caucasus?

On May 15, the presidents of the member countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) met in Moscow to discuss further initiatives aimed at building the organization’s peacekeeping potential. Kazakhstan’s role in the CSTO, its views on security in Central Asia and how Astana perceives the threats facing the region are among the numerous aspects addressed in the 2011 Military Doctrine. This security document is an essential element in assessing Kazakhstan’s defense agenda in the near term and beyond the NATO drawdown in Afghanistan.

At the end of May, Kazakhstan hosted two important economic events – the 25th Council of Foreign Investors meeting and the Fifth Astana Economic Forum. On these two occasions, the country’s president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, announced upcoming changes in public policy with regard to foreign companies working on Kazakhstan’s lucrative energy market and formulated several proposals concerning the state of the world economy. However, apart from purely economic thoughts, the Kazakh leader also addressed a political message reflecting his preoccupation with the recent wave of instability in certain authoritarian countries.

Kabul greatly needs to strengthen governance at all levels and to think about sustainable development, with the NATO summit in Chicago having clarified the date of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. In an attempt to contribute to public policy capacity building and long-term stabilization of the country, several governments from around the world have offered various forms of assistance in training and re-training the national cadres of professional and effective civil service officials. Among these, the government of Kazakhstan has designed a special program in which the doors of this country’s most prestigious universities are opened to about 1,000 graduate students from Afghanistan, to study under Kazakh governmental scholarships.

The U.S. and Afghanistan continue to refine their relationship while managing the deepening fears of abandonment in Kabul and unease in Washington about being entrapped in an unwinnable war. The peace talks with the Taliban have stalled, with the parties treating the negotiations as an extension of their conflict through verbal means. The U.S. and its NATO allies and partners now need to fulfill their commitments to support the Afghan government while also sustaining pressure on Kabul and its neighbors to make more progress in addressing the underlying socioeconomic, political, and other drivers of the insurgency.

Kavkaz Center, the major publication of the North Caucasian resistance, has always provided positive evaluations of any anti-Kremlin activities. For example, the clashes between protestors in Moscow and riot police on 7 May, the day of Putin’s inauguration, led Kavkaz Center to present the protestors as heroic fighters. In February 2012, the emir of the North Caucasian Emirate, Doku Umarov, made a statement where he termed the anti-Putin demonstrations a manifestation of the discontent of considerable segments of the Russian population with the regime, implying that the Russian masses and North Caucasian fighters have a common enemy. Consequently, Umarov stated that he ordered his fighters to stop attacking Russian civilians.