Analytical Articles

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates' visit to Azerbaijan seems to have succeeded in its likely purpose to exercise damage control. The free fall in U.S.-Azerbaijani relations, which had been ongoing for over a year, seems to have been arrested. Rebuilding trust and re-establishing America's role in Azerbaijan and the wider region will nevertheless require continued and sustained measures.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has thus far played a surprisingly small role in the Kyrgyz crisis despite Kyrgyzstan’s being one of the core members of that institution. The CSTO has done little more than issue alarming warnings about developments in Kyrgyzstan, allowing the OSCE to play a lead role in mediating the power struggle. Yet, while circumstances in Kyrgyzstan did not allow the CSTO to make use of its recently formed Collective Operational Reaction Force, it would be incorrect to presume that the organization could not assume a more prominent role if a crisis erupt in another member state.

On May 30, Georgian citizens went to the polls to vote in local elections. At stake were issues well beyond the socio-economic problems debated during pre-election campaigning. Apart from being an ordeal for the ruling United National Movement, already strained by war and street protests, the local elections served as a critical test of the fairness of Georgia’s electoral framework and, ultimately, for the country’s prospects of overcoming political polarisation. In the end, the ruling party came out of the elections strengthened. More importantly, initial signs indicate that Georgia may be revitalizing the democratic ideals espoused by the “rose revolutionaries”.

From Latin America to the Middle East, Africa to Europe, China’s web of economic expansion has engulfed all corners of the globe. Today, there is hardly any place in the world that does not trade with China. The South Caucasus is no exception. China’s economic and political presence in the region, while less substantial and inconspicuous compared to that of other actors, is no less visionary in its quest for expanded trade, energy resources and transportation corridors. Exploring the limits and prospects of Beijing’s growing engagement with the South Caucasus is therefore pertinent.

The appointment on May 24 of Matthew Bryza to be the U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan not only offers an opportunity to overcome the recent chill in relations between the U.S. and Azerbaijan. It also offers a chance to reduce the possibility of a renewed war in Nagorno-Karabakh. As demonstrated by the 2008 Russo-Georgian war, so-called frozen conflicts can quickly become hot ones and Nagorno-Karabakh is no exception. There is now an opportunity for the U.S. to add its hitherto missing weight to the resolution of the interlinked issues of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armeno-Turkish normalization.

When Yunas-Bek Yevkurov replaced Murat Zyazikov as president of Ingushetia in 2008 most citizens of the troubled republic were greatly relieved. Yevkurov arrived as a determined bridge-builder, a man of consensus who was expected to appeal to the disaffected citizenry of Ingushetia. He quickly won praise for pledging to put a stop to the much-maligned practice whereby young men were routinely abducted by unidentified members of the security forces. Of late, however, Yevkurov has seemingly revised his attitude toward Ingushetia’s kidnapping phenomenon – and his reached some startling conclusions.

The April 2010 visit of Maulana Fazl-ur-Rahman, head of Pakistani Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), to China at the invitation of the Communist Party of China (CPC), was yet another move on Beijing’s part to tackle the challenge of terrorism emanating from Islamic fundamentalists. Starting from September 11, 2001, China has expanded its cooperation with Pakistan on counterterrorism through a wide range of activities, including engagement with the religious political parties of the country. This would certainly help China in handling its separatist problem in Xinjiang.

Following the popular revolt that brought an end to President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s regime in Kyrgyzstan in April 2010, Tajikistan’s government termed the crisis an “internal affair” of Kyrgyzstan and limited its official comments to the events confronting its southern neighbor. Despite the official silence, events in Kyrgyzstan have generated considerable debate among Tajik analysts and opposition leaders over whether the Kyrgyz scenario is possible in Tajikistan. Although there are ample similarities between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan when it comes to political and socioeconomic settings, most argue that a Kyrgyz scenario is impossible in Tajikistan due to major differences between the two countries in foreign and domestic politics, and in post-independence experiences.

On April 26, 2010, the constitutional working group published a draft constitution for the Kyrgyz Republic, and the head of the interim government announced that the new constitution would be finalized on May 19. These developments have deeply divided the public, local experts and politicians. One group welcomes the decision, stating that the new constitution is a step toward stabilizing the political situation in the country. The other group questions the legitimacy of the working group in the absence of the dissolved Constitutional Court and Parliament, and also the lack of contributions from major parties and political groups, arguing that there should be no shortcuts in the introduction of this fundamental document.

A visible increase has taken place in contacts between members of the North Caucasian elite and Israel. Ramzan Kadyrov’s recent overtures to Israel, in which he acted as an independent ruler, rather than as a governor of the Russian Federation, should demonstrate that Moscow has little power over his actions. By closing its eyes to such activities on part of the North Caucasian elite, or even possibly encouraging them, the Kremlin wants to increase its contacts with Israel. An even more important reason is the persistent instability in North Caucasus, where Moscow is still unable to find any alternative to Kadyrov.