Analytical Articles

While Islamic fundamentalism exist to a greater or lesser extent in every Central Asian country, these threats are greatest in Tajikistan. Regardless of whether radicalized Islam in Tajikistan is considered a consequence of the civil war including the marginalization of former allies of President Rakhmon and members of the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan (IRP), poverty exacerbated by corruption driving people to seek justice through religion, or a crumbling regime losing control at the “top” and “bottom” of its society, the new pattern of violence indicates serious challenges for Tajikistan. Unless the government finds ways to improve its intelligence and security forces, the unrest will likely continue and worsen.

The relationship between the U.S. and Russia has been increasingly tense over the last ten years. Still, the fear of instability in Afghanistan and Central Asia has brought them together. Articles have appeared in the Russian press, which have emphasized the importance of cooperation between the U.S. and Russia. Some concrete actions also point to a recognized need for cooperation. For example, Russia provided 20 helicopters to Afghanistan and an open corridor for U.S. cargo. Still, both sides remain suspicious of each other’s intentions and full-fledged cooperation is unlikely to develop.

In August-September 2010 Russia announced that it had stationed S-300 missiles in Abkhazia since 2008, thereby admitting that it had deliberately broken the agreement with the EU that ended the Georgian war.  Moreover, this is part of Russia’s larger comprehensive military buildup there that has led to five military bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, also in violation of the 2008 accords.  Moscow has also moved decisively to establish itself as the unchallenged gendarme of the Caucasus by extend the lease on the Gyumri military in Armenia while selling Azerbaijan S-300 air defense missiles The important element is the impunity with which Russia has violated its commitments, primarily due to Washington’s failure to react. 

In recent months, violence has increased significantly in the Republic of Dagestan, the most populous autonomous republic of Russia’s North Caucasus with its 2.5 million inhabitants. On September 4, the republic’s minister for national affairs, Bekmurza Bekmurzayev, was assassinated. The next day, the Russian military base at Buynaksk was attacked by a suicide bomber, claiming the lives of four federal soldiers. Shootings, bombings and police raids against the strongholds of Islamist insurgents occur on a daily basis and have become an integral part of the political landscape of this mountainous republic. Yet what are the causes, current situation and prospects of the insurgency in Dagestan?  

In spite of its current messiness, Kyrgyzstan’s revolution provides an illustrative example for those who claim that Internet freedom leads to political freedom.  They find in Kyrgyzstan, as they did in Iran, a wired population and a political revolution, and assume that one causes the other. There is only tentative evidence of this claim, but there is more substantial evidence of the reverse causal relationship; that is, political freedom causing Internet freedom in the Turkic world.

Rosa Otunbaeva’s initiative to invite the OSCE Police Advisory Group to take part in post-conflict rehabilitation in Kyrgyzstan has led to wide discussions. Supporters of bringing in the Advisory Group believe that it will help stabilize the situation and ease public distrust in the national police. The opponents insist that the Advisory Group will interfere with Kyrgyzstan’s domestic affairs, which could in turn escalate the conflict and reinforce separatist movements in Kyrgyzstan’s South. Under pressure from both sides, Otunbaeva openly declared that she will consider inviting the mission only after the parliamentary elections on October 10.

On September 14, Presidents Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia, Traian Basescu of Romania and Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary gave new impetus to the realization of a revolutionary liquid natural gas (LNG) project. The high level attention to the project, named AGRI (Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romania Interconnector) is likely to attract other states to join. Experts say AGRI may be the most promising route for delivering LNG from the Caspian to Europe. It would connect existing and planned natural gas grids in Eastern Europe via Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and possibly Austria, as well as via an existing interconnector in Hungary.    

Since August 2010, a rumor is spreading that the Azerbaijani State oil company, SOCAR, would be about to bid for the North-South pipeline, which ships Russian gas from Mozdok to Yerevan through Georgia. Such a move would give Baku control over 10-15 percent of the pipeline that delivers 80 percent of the Armenian gas imports, hence giving it new leverage over Yerevan. It especially sheds light into the new strategy of Azerbaijan regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. While the shootouts have been increasing lately, Baku intends to use gas development to exert more pressure over Armenia.

Within 24 hours, two prominent think tanks on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean released alternative strategies for conducting the war in the Afghanistan. The reports issued by the Afghanistan Study Group (ASG) in Washington and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London both call for a dramatic scaling back of the coalition’s war goals and military efforts in Afghanistan. They shared the basic underlying position that the means being spent on the war have exceeded the value of the objectives being sought. Yet, while the two reports raise important points, implementing their recommendations would be premature.

During the global economic slowdown, commodity prices have both soared and plummeted.  As gold’s value recently reached all-time highs, journalists discussed gold-bar-dispensing ATM’s in Abu Dhabi, and investment experts proffered dire warnings of a crash. Industrial commodities, in contrast, suffered deep contractions in demand. Just as individual investors faced increased risk, the government of Kazakhstan saw its tax revenue stream swing with the vicissitudes of the world’s commodity markets. To enhance stability in the private and public sectors, new transfer pricing regulations were introduced in July. The goals were to increase transparency, smooth out price fluctuations, and conform to accepted international standards.