Analytical Articles

As the U.S. and NATO prepare to leave Afghanistan Washington, Brussels, Moscow, Beijing, New Delhi, Iran, Ankara, Tehran, and Islamabad are all competing to enhance their influence in Central Asia. Kyrgyzstan, a weak state whose government just collapsed, exemplifies the process by which the struggle for influence occurs. While Washington is currently negotiating the status of its base at Manas after 2014 and Turkey is the second largest investor in Kyrgyzstan, it is very clear that the real rivalry in Kyrgyzstan is occurring between Russia and China.

As Georgia approaches Election Day on October 1, much attention is paid by international Georgia-watchers to whether these elections will signify a step forward in the consolidation of Georgia’s political system. Indeed, practically all elections held since the Rose Revolution in 2003 have been considered litmus tests of Georgia’s democracy in one way or another. Yet these parliamentary elections, given their function as a scene-setter for the presidential elections scheduled for October 2013, arguably have an unprecedented significance in that they are potentially the first step toward Georgia’s first constitutional and orderly transfer of political power since independence.

On August 1, 2012, Chechnya’s President Ramzan Kadyrov announced that troops of the Chechen MVD and the Chechen administrative FSB had carried out a special operation in the neighboring republic of Ingushetia on July 29. Chechen troops killed two and wounded one member of the North Caucasian insurgency, suspected of conducting an attack on Tsentoroy, the center of the Kadyrov clan. Ingush president Yunus-Bek Yevkurov dismissed Kadyrov’s version and proclaimed that the casualties were caused by an accidental explosion in the village of Galashki near Chechnya’s border, in effect accusing Kadyrov of lying and exacerbating the already severe animosity between the two leaders.

The release of graphic videos of grave prisoner abuse in Georgia’s penitentiary system could not come at a worse time for the ruling party, less than two weeks before the October 1 parliamentary elections. The episode, inadvertently, is highly indicative of both the strengths and weaknesses of Georgia’s political system. On the one hand, it is aggravating that this type of abuse could go on without high-level intervention in spite of repeated criticism from domestic and foreign watchdogs alike. On the other hand, the government’s reaction is, encouragingly, that which could be expected from a democratic than an authoritarian state.

In light of the announced withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan by 2014, one expert made the adequate observation that “the Central Asian states are left confused, but not surprised.” The one issue causing the most confusion is the role of the Taliban movement in shaping the political landscape of Afghanistan after 2014. There are currently more questions than answers regarding this issue, which should be clarified to provide the Central Asian states with clues about how to deal with the movement when foreign troops leave the country.

Triggered by the murder of a senior security official, a conflict has recently erupted between government forces and former warlords in eastern Tajikistan. Although many different factors might have played into the government’s decision to order the military operation, at its core the intrusion aimed at completing the regime’s long-term agenda of eradicating former opposition commanders. By ordering the military operation in GBAO, the central government has demonstrated that it will no longer permit former opposition commanders or any other groups or individuals to rival the power of state organs in the country.

Kyrgyzstan’s new government has referred to corruption as the country’s most pressing problem, indicating the need to prioritize anti-corruption reforms. A new Anti-Corruption Agency has been established within the State Committee for National Security to lead the work. Criminal cases were recently initiated against two members of parliament as well as a minister, raising the question of whether a serious fight against corruption has finally begun in the country. Whether these moves constitute the beginning of a new era in Kyrgyzstan’s political system remains an open question given the fact that corruption is firmly entrenched in the country’s system of governance and can only be curtailed through a comprehensive overhaul of this system.

In August 2012, the Oliy Majlis (OM) – Uzbekistan’s parliament – adopted the new Concept on Foreign Policy Activity of the Republic of Uzbekistan. This document, albeit important and necessary per se, has its strengths, weaknesses and uncertainties. These are reflected in the concepts of “no base,” “no blocks,” and “national interest” respectively. The new foreign policy approach taken by Uzbekistan, which seemingly advocates a higher degree of international nonalignment, may nevertheless clash with the strategies of other Central Asian states and raises questions about future military basing and cooperation across the region.