Analytical Articles

The crisis in the Middle East and North Africa, last December’s OSCE summit in Kazakhstan, the civil strife in Kyrgyzstan, and the escalating fighting in Afghanistan have combined to produce a resurgence of thinking about U.S. policy toward Central Asia. The key uncertainty now is whether, given all the captivating developments elsewhere and the resource-constrained U.S. government, the new thinking will result in new actions. While recent developments in the Middle East could fuel much-needed reform in Central Asian states, such changes will need continuous encouragement from Western governments to have a lasting impact.

Kazakhstan’s President, Nursultan Narzarbayev, has set elections for April 3, 2011. As part of his reelection program, a clear plan for a “People’s IPO” was announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos last month. The initial public offering will sell shares on the Kazakh Stock Exchange (KSE) from holdings of the “Samruk-Kazyna” Sovereign Wealth Fund. The IPO’s objectives are to boost the KSE’s institutional capacity amid a growing wave of global stock market mergers and increase economic participation by Kazakh citizens. While Arab leaders redistribute sovereign wealth funds to quell unrest, Narzarbayev’s strong political position drives forward-looking economic development policies.  

The further delay of final investment decisions on the Nabucco and South Stream natural gas pipeline projects does not diminish the significance of the current calendar year for them or for associated projects in southeastern Europe. The prolongation of the timeframe only creates the need for the pipelines’ respective proponents to organize further tactical moves while elaborating auxiliary strategies. The competition between Nabucco and South Stream is raised to a higher level even as the European Union declares that the two projects’ relative commercial merit is as important as their contrasting geopolitical implications. Each project consortium and its members individually seek to adapt to, and simultaneously to shape, the evolving geo-economic environment.

An analysis of the higher education system in Azerbaijan offers clear indications of an impending social and economic challenge due to the inequitable access to higher education between urban and rural populations. A substantial part of the disparity in access to higher education in Azerbaijan stems from the large gap in the quality of education between regions as well as types of secondary schools. A comparison of university admission rates among the different groups in question is usually taken as a fairly good proxy for most aspects of equity in access to higher education. Such analysis of cross-sectional data for Azerbaijan reveals a huge disparity in higher education admission rates between urban and rural areas.

The presidential election season in Kazakhstan started with several puzzling events. In late 2010 –early 2011 a ‘group of private individuals’ came up with the idea to extend Nursultan Nazarbayev’s presidency until 2020 through a referendum rather than through open and competitive elections. However, in an unexpected twist the Constitutional Council declared the referendum unconstitutional despite the fact that about 5 million signatures were collected and both chambers of Kazakhstan’s legislature — the Senate and the Majilis — approved it. This decision led to an official announcement that early presidential elections will be held on April 3, 2011, though they are not due until 2012.

Nationalist feelings have been on the rise in Kyrgyzstan since the ethnic conflict in June 2010. Amid visible and hidden tensions among the ethnic majority and ethnic minorities, the Kyrgyz government has promised to release a special document that would outline a plan on building inter-ethnic peace. This document, scheduled to appear in mid-March, is, however, unlikely to tackle the often hidden ethno-nationalism among ruling political elites. A more complex approach is necessary that would emphasize the importance of citizenship ahead of ethnic identity and openly challenge ethno-nationalist feelings. The country’s political leadership must realize that only a civic model of nation-building will allow for a parliamentary system to strengthen in Kyrgyzstan.

The failure of the CSTO to intervene in Kyrgyzstan last June to stop ethnic violence that followed the ouster of President Bakiyev in April demonstrated the breakdown of the existing regional security institutions in Central Asia. As a result, the overhaul of the regional security system, of which Russia is a linchpin, is likely to become an important issue for discussion between Central Asian states, particularly between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. While it is too early to outline the contours of the new security arrangements, it is clear that Central Asian states will aim at reducing regional security dependence on Russia and favor closer cooperation with the West.

Two months after the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) held its first head-of-state level summit in a decade in Astana, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbaev has used his newly granted powers to set the next presidential election for early April, surprising all potential opposition political formations. In view of his general popularity throughout the country, the only question remaining would appear to be the size of his eventual winning margin. Still, the elections may provide much-needed experience and exposure for a younger generation of Kazakhstani politicians.

On February 19, three Russian tourists were killed in the mountainous Elbrus area of Kabardino-Balkaria by local Islamist insurgents, with two others escaping with serious injuries. Since Fall 2010, a series of audacious attacks have been carried out by insurgents, claiming the lives of the republic’s mufti Anas Pshikhachev, the prominent Kabardey ethnologist Arsen Tsipinov, and a number of police officers and state officials. These recent events have contributed to making Kabardino-Balkaria one of the major hotspots of the North Caucasian insurgency, along with Dagestan.

In the past month, the Azerbaijani Government has launched a massive anti-corruption campaign, raising eyebrows both among ordinary people and international observers. The question on everyone’s mind is whether this campaign is a long-term policy or a temporary measure to prevent Middle-East type social unrest, as the opposition claims. Although it is too early to say, some signs indicate that these efforts may have a more sustainable nature, thus raising hopes for an improvement in the business and development climate in the country.