Analytical Articles

The failure of the CSTO to intervene in Kyrgyzstan last June to stop ethnic violence that followed the ouster of President Bakiyev in April demonstrated the breakdown of the existing regional security institutions in Central Asia. As a result, the overhaul of the regional security system, of which Russia is a linchpin, is likely to become an important issue for discussion between Central Asian states, particularly between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. While it is too early to outline the contours of the new security arrangements, it is clear that Central Asian states will aim at reducing regional security dependence on Russia and favor closer cooperation with the West.

Two months after the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) held its first head-of-state level summit in a decade in Astana, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbaev has used his newly granted powers to set the next presidential election for early April, surprising all potential opposition political formations. In view of his general popularity throughout the country, the only question remaining would appear to be the size of his eventual winning margin. Still, the elections may provide much-needed experience and exposure for a younger generation of Kazakhstani politicians.

On February 19, three Russian tourists were killed in the mountainous Elbrus area of Kabardino-Balkaria by local Islamist insurgents, with two others escaping with serious injuries. Since Fall 2010, a series of audacious attacks have been carried out by insurgents, claiming the lives of the republic’s mufti Anas Pshikhachev, the prominent Kabardey ethnologist Arsen Tsipinov, and a number of police officers and state officials. These recent events have contributed to making Kabardino-Balkaria one of the major hotspots of the North Caucasian insurgency, along with Dagestan.

In the past month, the Azerbaijani Government has launched a massive anti-corruption campaign, raising eyebrows both among ordinary people and international observers. The question on everyone’s mind is whether this campaign is a long-term policy or a temporary measure to prevent Middle-East type social unrest, as the opposition claims. Although it is too early to say, some signs indicate that these efforts may have a more sustainable nature, thus raising hopes for an improvement in the business and development climate in the country.

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s visit to China on February 21-23 was his fifteenth since Kazakhstan’s independence. Yet few have observed that Kazakhstan’s relations with China, resting on expanding energy collaboration since the 1990s, are today evolving to reflect rapidly growing cooperation in areas as diverse as manufacturing, shipbuilding, transport, technology, and trade. It is in these areas that Nazarbayev has secured monumental deals during his visit to the “Middle Kingdom”, and it is development of these sectors that, with a balanced approach, could consolidate rather than weaken the sovereignty of Kazakhstan in the long run.

The three-party government coalition of Armenia has adopted a rather unexpected document whereby its member parties express their support for the nomination of current President Serzh Sargsyan two years before his expected reelection bid. They also declare their intention to help each other during the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2012. This can be regarded as very strong support for Sargsyan and his team, which they will certainly need. Considering the considerable political power of the coalition, the declaration promises to maintain its rule well beyond the upcoming elections.

On February 4, the North Caucasian jihadist website Kavkaz-Tsentr published a video featuring the “Islamic Emirate of Caucasus” (IEC) rebel leader, Doku Umarov, in which he said a special operation would be carried out in Moscow. He threatened to “make this year a year of blood and tears” for Russians. Umarov said he had arrived at a base of the Riyadus Salikhiyn brigade before a mujahid was sent on a mission to Russia. Umarov appeared to be sitting beside Amir Khamzat, the chief of Riyadus Salikhiyn, and another person identified as “Mujahid Saifullah,” who was assigned to carry out an unspecified attack in response to the Russian government's actions in the North Caucasus.

Events in Egypt and Tunisia have already triggered apprehensive reactions from Central Asian governments and Azerbaijan.  These authoritarian governments, like Egypt, try to portray their domestic oppositions as Islamist while suppressing human rights and political opposition.  But the issues in Azerbaijan are somewhat different than those in Central Asia. Azerbaijan’s human rights problem is directly tied to the Iranian context.  Azerbaijan’s admittedly defective human rights situation is directly connected not only to Iranian policy but also to Iran’s own much more serious human rights violations.

On January 17, 2011, Kyrgyz authorities arrested several jihadists who had either been engaged in terrorist actions or planned to do so. The group was known as Jaysh al-Mahdi and its members were engaged in killing members of the local law enforcement, robbing U.S. citizens and attacking Jewish targets. They also planned an attack on the U.S. base in Manas. Most of the members of the group were ethnic Kyrgyz. These events indicate the continuous spread of jihadism to an area where it has not previously been recorded and the increasing interaction between jihadist forces throughout Eurasia.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has pursued a narrow approach toward Afghanistan that focuses on countering narcotics trafficking from that country and little else. The SCO also engages in little concrete activity regarding Afghanistan besides issuing declarations. The SCO could more effectively achieve its goals in Afghanistan if the SCO focused on developing that country’s legal economy and improving its basic economic infrastructure, including that related to transportation. Measures to promote this goal could include financing joint projects in Afghanistan, reducing barriers to SCO trade with that country, and otherwise helping integrate Afghanistan into the rest of Central Asia.