Analytical Articles

On April 1 the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that it lacked jurisdiction with regard to a claim filed by Georgia in August 2008, concerning acts of cleansing and discrimination of ethnic Georgians before and during the Georgia-Russia war. The Court’s unusually strong emphasis on procedural requirements, along with divided views among its members, suggests that the Court had difficulties tackling the political dimensions of the case. The ICJ nonetheless dismissed Russia’s argument that no dispute exists between Georgia and Russia –opening up to future deliberations on the merits of the case and confirming Tbilisi’s arguments that Russia is a conflict party rather than a peace broker in the region.

Since independence, Kazakhstan has actively experimented with education reforms in order to train its own specialists for the country’s rapidly expending economy. With the establishment of the Nazarbayev University and the introduction of several legislative measures giving it a special independent status, Kazakhstan's government intends to create a globally competitive higher education institution. Opinions on the project are divided. Some believe that the establishment of a new education institution where internationally and locally recruited faculty would teach most of the subjects in English and supervise world-class research projects is a leap forward for Kazakhstan's education system. Others are quite skeptical, claiming it would be better to spend more money and time reforming the existing university system.

Russian authorities have recently announced that around 70,000 persons of various professional backgrounds will serve during the 2014 Winter Olympic Games in Sochi, a Northwest Caucasian seaport city with a population of 350,000 in the Krasnodar province. Within this number, an army of 25,000 volunteers, predominantly young men and women coming from all over Russia, will be established. This and other factors, coupled with the increased activities of the Western wing of the self-proclaimed Caucasus Emirate raise a range of security concerns ahead of the upcoming Olympics.

Over the last several months, the commodities trading giant Glencore has been hinting at a possible IPO – the most anticipated since Goldman Sachs went public in 1999. The company is one of the largest private firms in the world, with an estimated annual turnover of US$ 48 billion. But beyond trading, Glencore also owns and operates significant mining assets in politically “risky” environments, including Kazakhstan. Glencore’s talent in political risk management relies on its ability to recognize national and regional government interests and to construct a company around those interests that ensures the firm can operate in the country with minimal friction.

The crisis in the Middle East and North Africa, last December’s OSCE summit in Kazakhstan, the civil strife in Kyrgyzstan, and the escalating fighting in Afghanistan have combined to produce a resurgence of thinking about U.S. policy toward Central Asia. The key uncertainty now is whether, given all the captivating developments elsewhere and the resource-constrained U.S. government, the new thinking will result in new actions. While recent developments in the Middle East could fuel much-needed reform in Central Asian states, such changes will need continuous encouragement from Western governments to have a lasting impact.

Kazakhstan’s President, Nursultan Narzarbayev, has set elections for April 3, 2011. As part of his reelection program, a clear plan for a “People’s IPO” was announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos last month. The initial public offering will sell shares on the Kazakh Stock Exchange (KSE) from holdings of the “Samruk-Kazyna” Sovereign Wealth Fund. The IPO’s objectives are to boost the KSE’s institutional capacity amid a growing wave of global stock market mergers and increase economic participation by Kazakh citizens. While Arab leaders redistribute sovereign wealth funds to quell unrest, Narzarbayev’s strong political position drives forward-looking economic development policies.  

The further delay of final investment decisions on the Nabucco and South Stream natural gas pipeline projects does not diminish the significance of the current calendar year for them or for associated projects in southeastern Europe. The prolongation of the timeframe only creates the need for the pipelines’ respective proponents to organize further tactical moves while elaborating auxiliary strategies. The competition between Nabucco and South Stream is raised to a higher level even as the European Union declares that the two projects’ relative commercial merit is as important as their contrasting geopolitical implications. Each project consortium and its members individually seek to adapt to, and simultaneously to shape, the evolving geo-economic environment.

An analysis of the higher education system in Azerbaijan offers clear indications of an impending social and economic challenge due to the inequitable access to higher education between urban and rural populations. A substantial part of the disparity in access to higher education in Azerbaijan stems from the large gap in the quality of education between regions as well as types of secondary schools. A comparison of university admission rates among the different groups in question is usually taken as a fairly good proxy for most aspects of equity in access to higher education. Such analysis of cross-sectional data for Azerbaijan reveals a huge disparity in higher education admission rates between urban and rural areas.

The presidential election season in Kazakhstan started with several puzzling events. In late 2010 –early 2011 a ‘group of private individuals’ came up with the idea to extend Nursultan Nazarbayev’s presidency until 2020 through a referendum rather than through open and competitive elections. However, in an unexpected twist the Constitutional Council declared the referendum unconstitutional despite the fact that about 5 million signatures were collected and both chambers of Kazakhstan’s legislature — the Senate and the Majilis — approved it. This decision led to an official announcement that early presidential elections will be held on April 3, 2011, though they are not due until 2012.

Nationalist feelings have been on the rise in Kyrgyzstan since the ethnic conflict in June 2010. Amid visible and hidden tensions among the ethnic majority and ethnic minorities, the Kyrgyz government has promised to release a special document that would outline a plan on building inter-ethnic peace. This document, scheduled to appear in mid-March, is, however, unlikely to tackle the often hidden ethno-nationalism among ruling political elites. A more complex approach is necessary that would emphasize the importance of citizenship ahead of ethnic identity and openly challenge ethno-nationalist feelings. The country’s political leadership must realize that only a civic model of nation-building will allow for a parliamentary system to strengthen in Kyrgyzstan.