Analytical Articles

The suppression of violent demonstrations in Tbilisi on May 26 once again led to images being beamed out of a Georgia plagued by unrest and instability, complete with allegations of excessive use of force by the police. Meanwhile, bombings and other acts of sabotage with clear linkages to the Russian special services keep being reported. Yet the picture may be misleading: under the surface, Georgia’s politics are showing signs of normalization. The recent violence may just be the death spasms of the legacy of radicalism in Georgia’s post-communist politics.

The Armenian government and the radical opposition Armenian National Congress have declared that they will engage in dialogue as some of the ANC’s demands have been satisfied. This improves Armenia’s chances of escaping destabilization despite its difficult situation due to the global economic crisis, rising food prices and the risk of spillover from events in the Middle East. While the government is unlikely to meet remaining demands regarding early elections, the ANC hereby enhances its position as Armenia’s primary opposition movement and will likely secure a significant portion of the seats in parliament in the elections scheduled for next year.

Since 2003, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has organized a number of “anti-terrorist exercises” that have involved their armed forces and law enforcement personnel. These drills serve multiple purposes, including improving the proficiency of the members’ security forces, demonstrating new skills, learning about other SCO forces and their capabilities, reassuring the organization’s Central Asian members about their security requirements, providing opportunities to cultivate bilateral contacts with other SCO members, and signaling to outside powers, especially the U.S., that Central Asia is a zone of special security concern for Moscow and Beijing.

During a meeting last weekend in Astana, the head of Kazakhstan’s KazMunaiGaz (KMG) K.M. Kabyldin confirmed to the executive council of the EBRD that the first oil from the offshore Kashagan deposit will be produced in late 2012 or early 2013. Oil for export will be produced in 2014, and it will be exported through the Caspian Pipeline Corporation (CPC) pipeline that was originally built to serve the Tengiz field, which it will also continue to do. Construction of the once-touted Kazakhstan-Caspian Transport System (KCTS) for export of Kashagan oil across the Caspian Sea to Baku has been postponed until Kashagan’s second stage comes on line at the end of the present decade.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin recently held a press conference to announce funding for 30 new development projects in the North Caucasus. The announcement was the latest in a string of high profile, high-cost investment plans that aim to pull the troubled region out of a cycle of violence and instability. While the goals of the Russian government should be lauded, the most notable development efforts by the federal and provincial governments focus more on public relations ventures, such as elite ski resorts and soccer exhibitions, than on sustainable economic improvement.

The death of Osama bin Laden on May 2 placed the future of foreign military engagement in Afghanistan in the limelight. Incidentally, Arab militants may also prefer abandoning their traditional bases amid growing unrest in the Middle East. The Afghan capital, Kabul, has been buzzing with ideas for bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table. Neighboring Pakistan, embarrassed after the disclosure of bin Laden’s presence and the U.S. operation, has long advocated efforts to transform the Taliban militia into a political entity. Washington’s zero tolerance for any future slackness in localizing key leaders of al-Qaeda and the Taliban has resulted in accelerated Pakistani search operations in its vast territory.

A territorial dispute has recently worsened the relationship between Moscow and its committed ally in the South Caucasus, Georgia’s separatist republic of Abkhazia, whose independence was recognized by the Russian authorities less than three years ago. In an attempt to delimitate its state borders with Abkhazia, Moscow recently came up with a plan envisaging the de facto annexation of ca 160 square kilometers of Abkhaz soil, an initiative fiercely opposed by official Sukhumi. While Moscow would benefit from such territorial expansion ahead of the Sochi Olympics, forcing Abkhazia to cede territory could damage Moscow’s relations to Abkhazia as well as its other allies in the South Caucasus. 

With the Russian Federation nearing the finish line in its marathon race to join the World Trade Organization, Moscow has restarted negotiations with Georgia. They will have a full agenda stemming from Russian actions before and during the war with Georgia in 2008. These talks are taking place because the Georgia is in a position to use its veto as a member of the WTO to blackball Russia’s membership. Russia therefore needs Georgia’s assent to join the WTO. The negotiations are therefore about both the consequences of the Russo-Georgian war and overcoming them to  obtain a way for Georgia to approve of Russia’s candidacy to the WTO.

The recently announced “People's IPO”, a new round of public offerings by Kazakhstan's largest and most profitable corporations and companies was designed to address one of the country’s most divisive and contentious issues – the rise of extreme inequality between the very small class of nouveau riches who acquired former state companies for a song, and the large class (up to 70–80 percent) of impoverished citizens. The new ‘People's IPO’ immediately became the center of heated public debate in Kazakhstan. The main question is whether this bold and innovative act by Kazakhstan's government can address the fundamental problem of social inequality.