Analytical Articles

For the sixth year, the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) leadership summit declined to allow new countries to join the organization as full members or formal observers. There were strong expectations earlier this year that the June 15 gathering in Astana, which marked the institution’s tenth anniversary, would see the SCO leaders finally overcoming their expansion impasse, but this was not to be. Instead of expanding the number of full members, the SCO has resorted to proliferating new categories of external association. While the memberships of applicants such as India, Pakistan and Iran are opposed by key SCO members, Turkmenistan continues to show disinterest in the organization.

Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has emerged as a clear and present danger to Pakistan’s national security. It is gaining confidence and aiming to expand its area of operations. Since Osama bin Laden’s death on May 2, TTP has killed at least 153 people and injured another 200 in various attacks to avenge bin Laden’s death. Amongst the targets were paramilitary cadets, a U.S. consulate convoy, and Pakistan Navy’s base PNS Mehran. TTP has global ambitions and has claimed responsibility for planning the attempted car bombing at Times Square in New York on July 7, 2010, and training the bomber Faisal Shahzad.

On May 26, the beheaded body of Shamil Jikayev, a venerated Ossetian poet and dean of the Department of Ossetian Philology of the North Ossetian State University was found in a village near the republic’s capital city of Vladikavkaz.  Three days later, in a fierce shootout with North Ossetian police forces, Jikayev’s alleged murderer, David Murashev, was shot dead. As Murashev, himself an Ossetian, is said by authorities to have turned to “radical Islam” few years earlier, this incident stirred up talks about the increasingly uncomfortable coexistence of Christian and Muslim communities within North Ossetia, renewing fears of the “jihadization” of a part of North Ossetian Muslims.   

China’s announcement earlier this year that it would restrict the export of rare earths caused a wave of anxiety among manufacturers, as the elements are used in the construction of everything from iPhones to cruise missiles. China’s sole source for the rare earths is a mine complex in Inner Mongolia near Baotou city. Beijing’s announcement has intensified efforts to find alternative sources of the vital minerals, with neighboring Mongolia quickly becoming a focus of international interest. Adding to Mongolia’s attractiveness is that its government has striven to become more investor friendly, with its Parliament amending the country’s Mining Law to take account of foreign investor concerns.

The suppression of violent demonstrations in Tbilisi on May 26 once again led to images being beamed out of a Georgia plagued by unrest and instability, complete with allegations of excessive use of force by the police. Meanwhile, bombings and other acts of sabotage with clear linkages to the Russian special services keep being reported. Yet the picture may be misleading: under the surface, Georgia’s politics are showing signs of normalization. The recent violence may just be the death spasms of the legacy of radicalism in Georgia’s post-communist politics.

The Armenian government and the radical opposition Armenian National Congress have declared that they will engage in dialogue as some of the ANC’s demands have been satisfied. This improves Armenia’s chances of escaping destabilization despite its difficult situation due to the global economic crisis, rising food prices and the risk of spillover from events in the Middle East. While the government is unlikely to meet remaining demands regarding early elections, the ANC hereby enhances its position as Armenia’s primary opposition movement and will likely secure a significant portion of the seats in parliament in the elections scheduled for next year.

Since 2003, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has organized a number of “anti-terrorist exercises” that have involved their armed forces and law enforcement personnel. These drills serve multiple purposes, including improving the proficiency of the members’ security forces, demonstrating new skills, learning about other SCO forces and their capabilities, reassuring the organization’s Central Asian members about their security requirements, providing opportunities to cultivate bilateral contacts with other SCO members, and signaling to outside powers, especially the U.S., that Central Asia is a zone of special security concern for Moscow and Beijing.

During a meeting last weekend in Astana, the head of Kazakhstan’s KazMunaiGaz (KMG) K.M. Kabyldin confirmed to the executive council of the EBRD that the first oil from the offshore Kashagan deposit will be produced in late 2012 or early 2013. Oil for export will be produced in 2014, and it will be exported through the Caspian Pipeline Corporation (CPC) pipeline that was originally built to serve the Tengiz field, which it will also continue to do. Construction of the once-touted Kazakhstan-Caspian Transport System (KCTS) for export of Kashagan oil across the Caspian Sea to Baku has been postponed until Kashagan’s second stage comes on line at the end of the present decade.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin recently held a press conference to announce funding for 30 new development projects in the North Caucasus. The announcement was the latest in a string of high profile, high-cost investment plans that aim to pull the troubled region out of a cycle of violence and instability. While the goals of the Russian government should be lauded, the most notable development efforts by the federal and provincial governments focus more on public relations ventures, such as elite ski resorts and soccer exhibitions, than on sustainable economic improvement.

The death of Osama bin Laden on May 2 placed the future of foreign military engagement in Afghanistan in the limelight. Incidentally, Arab militants may also prefer abandoning their traditional bases amid growing unrest in the Middle East. The Afghan capital, Kabul, has been buzzing with ideas for bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table. Neighboring Pakistan, embarrassed after the disclosure of bin Laden’s presence and the U.S. operation, has long advocated efforts to transform the Taliban militia into a political entity. Washington’s zero tolerance for any future slackness in localizing key leaders of al-Qaeda and the Taliban has resulted in accelerated Pakistani search operations in its vast territory.