Analytical Articles

While Iran has often sought to cultivate the governments of Central Asia and the Caucasus, occasionally it has made use of forceful diplomatic, if not military, instruments. During 2011 Tehran has again displayed its claws.  Tajikistan has had to recall its students from Iranian religious schools, even though Tajikistan has  long tired to cultivate Iran politically, economically, and diplomatically. Iran also reacted harshly to Turkey’s growing criticism of its protégé in Damascus. Worst of all, a high-ranking Iranian general criticized Azerbaijan vocally for its ties to Israel and alleged anti-Islamic practices.

On July 15, unique hearings were held in the Oliy Majlis (Parliament) of Uzbekistan where a joint session of the Legislative Chamber and the Senate listened to the Prime Minister’s Report on measures taken by the Cabinet to further deepen democratic reforms and economic liberalization. The hearings were the first of their kind in terms of making the executive power accountable to the legislative power and demonstrating the introduction of a checks and balances system. The expected vote of no-confidence in the Prime Minister thus seems postponed.

On June 22, President Obama announced a withdrawal of 33,000 U.S. troops from Afghanistan by 2012. According to the U.S./NATO strategy, these governments should withdraw all their forces by 2014. However, although NATO plans no bases in Afghanistan, the U.S. is negotiating with Kabul to preserve some unspecified bases and is conducting an extensive program of military construction of facilities for Central Asian militaries. Central Asia is becoming more important as a supply route as U.S. ties to Pakistan deteriorate. These linked developments have generated reactions from many if not all of the interested parties to the conflict, which reveal future perceptions of security trends in Afghanistan and Central Asia.

After months of feuding the two rival factions within Chechnya’s rebel organisation have been reconciled. Doku Umarov, the disputed leader of the Caucasus Emirate organisation, has somehow prevailed upon his opponents in the Chechen branch of the organisation to once again recognize his legitimacy as Emir. Following some deft political manoeuvring, Umarov has rescued his dwindling legitimacy. But it remains to be seen if there is a hidden price for Umarov to pay for this new affectation of political unity within the rebel ranks, and in that case, for how long Umarov will remain the leader of the rebel organization.  

The competition among European actors hunting for Azerbaijani gas has intensified. Political and commercial actors backing various gas pipeline projects for transporting Azerbaijani gas to Europe are aware that the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) has to make a final decision by October 2011, while Azerbaijan keeps them guessing. During the Caspian Energy Dialogue held on July 15, SOCAR’s head Rovnag Abdullayev stressed that all European gas pipeline projects have been under consideration. Nevertheless, it seems that two such projects are in a highly favorable position to transport Azerbaijan’s gas to Europe. The Nabucco and ITGI consortiums have made new proposals to Azerbaijan in order to persuade Baku of the attractiveness of their projects.

Baluchistan is the largest and strategically most important province of Pakistan and will play an important role especially in the country’s economic future. Baloch culture is primarily tribal and its society is dominated by tribal sardars, nawabs and mirs. Since Pakistan’s independence in 1947, Baluchistan has seen several phases of violence and insurgency including the most violent in 1974-77. Since 2005, a low level insurgency is fought in the province. One of its unique features is the target killings of mainly Punjabi, but also Muhajir settlers. Regardless of a persistent militant rhetoric, the insurgency has been largely contained in the last few months.

Successfully managing the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan is perhaps the most urgent task of Leon Panetta, the new U.S. Defense Secretary. The fundamental issue is how fast U.S. and NATO troops will leave the country and what Afghan conditions and regional structure will emerge in their wake. No matter how effectively U.S. forces implement their strategy and tactics, they cannot win the war alone. The Pentagon needs reliable partners, both in Afghanistan and elsewhere, to leave behind a democratic government able to contain widespread political violence and prevent the reconstruction of terrorist bases and suppress a narcotics-funded insurgency that threatens neighboring countries.

The first anniversary of the tragic interethnic conflicts in and around Osh city in June passed peacefully. Discussions, however, reveal a deep divide in Kyrgyz society about the causes and consequences of the events. Some believe they were a one-time occurrence caused by political instability following the April 2010 “Revolution”, which removed President Kurmanbek Bakiyev from power, and that it was instigated by Bakiyev's supporters in order to destabilize the country. Others think conflicts are inevitable in this densely populated and impoverished multiethnic part of the Fergana Valley. The only way to mitigate those conflicts is to build a conflict mediation infrastructure in order to avoid the escalation of local community disputes into large-scale bloody quarrels.

Last July, two significant events stirred the waters of the otherwise apparently still Turkmenistan politics. First, large-scale explosions of ammunition at arms depots swept over Abadan, a satellite town of the capital Ashkhabad, leaving dozens dead and wreaking havoc with the town infrastructure. The emergency was eventually followed by a statement of President Berdimuhammedov, inviting exile opposition leaders to return to Turkmenistan and run in the upcoming presidential election to be held in early 2012. While the statement was given considerable coverage in both local and international media, the explosions initially passed relatively unnoticed.

Relations between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have become a barometer for and a troublesome symptom of the overall regional development in Central Asia. One year has passed since the tragic events of June 2010 in the south of Kyrgyzstan where a terrible clash took place between local Uzbeks and Kyrgyz. Hundreds of Uzbeks were killed in the massacres. Allegations, investigations and analyses of the events are still filled with controversial interpretations and perceptions. Reactions to the international investigation of the conflict are telling of the lack of much-needed regional conflict mechanisms for conflict resolution in Central Asia.