Analytical Articles

Mass demonstrations of ethnic Azerbaijanis protesting the drying up of Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran, the Middle East’s largest water reservoir and the third largest salt-water lake in the world, recently struck the cities of Iranian Azerbaijan. Although information from the region is scarce, numerous reports state that hundreds of protesters have been beaten, arrested and mistreated by Iranian police and security forces. Additionally, new clashes have taken place between supporters of the Tehran-based Esteqlal and the Tabriz-based Tractor Sazi football club (TSFC) with the latter raising Urmiye-related claims alongside their longtime demands for establishing school education in Azerbaijani Turkish.

On September 1, President Islam Karimov delivered his customary speech at the celebrations of Uzbekistan’s 20th anniversary of independence. The emphasis on independence and on the “Uzbek Model” for economic development continues to be expounded as the general principle for how Uzbek authorities wish to engage with international actors. The address therefore has demonstrated the Uzbek government’s persistence in applying those two pillars in its relations. President Karimov thus signaled that little will change in Uzbekistan’s reluctance to commit wholly to partnerships with foreign actors, a fact which has become clear in Uzbekistan’s relations with two important Western states, Germany and the U.S.

Admiral Mullen’s recent statement that the Haqqani network is a strategic arm of Pakistan has given rise to a new crisis in relations between Islamabad and Washington. Many in the U.S. are demanding that Pakistan no longer be treated as an ally. While Afghanistan might be important in the short run, Pakistan is pivotal. It is important for both parties to work together for peace and security. It is high time that both Washington and Islamabad take joint steps to repair and improve the mutual relationship.

This fall several thousand students in Kazakhstan will enter universities of a very different type – research universities. In an attempt to reform its higher education system, introduce international standards and encourage research and innovation, the Ministry of Education of Kazakhstan plans to designate 5-6 universities (out of 146), as research universities. These educational institutions – modeled after U.S. research universities such as MIT and Stanford – are envisioned as centers of research and innovation where a new generation of researchers and scholars will prepare to deal with the challenges of globalization. But will these universities deliver the intended outcomes?

The opening of Afghanistan’s first major railroad in August promises transformative economic and geopolitical changes that are yet to be fully understood. The recent completion of a railroad line from the Afghan-Uzbek border to Mazar-i-Sharif will be complemented by a railroad from Iran. Along with railroads planned by China and Pakistan, this will create economic synergies as Afghanistan is integrated with the railroads of its neighbors. Geopolitically, the Afghan railroads dovetail with China’s massive railroad program in Central Asia, Pakistan, and Iran. Further, as Iran, Pakistan, and Russia are hedging their bets on a U.S. troop withdrawal, railroads will strengthen their influence in Afghanistan. The railroad frenzy should be seen in this light.

Ukraine plans to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) port on the Black Sea for gas that it plans to buy from Azerbaijan. The two countries’ foreign ministers recently met in Baku with a view towards implementing this and other economic and energy agreements reached during Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s recent visit to Ukraine. The project is part and parcel of Ukraine’s strategy to diversify its sources of energy supply away from Russia, as the Nord Stream pipeline comes on line and Russian gas exports to Europe begin to shift to that corridor.

Russian law enforcement recently tried to arrest a jihadist named Viktor Dvorakovsky. While the event itself can be regarded as a regular law enforcement operation, Dvorakovsky does not belong to any of the ethnic groups in Russia which are historically Muslims. Dvorakovsky’s case has indicated that jihadist converts, who have become Islamists in spite of lacking a historical connection to Islam, continue to constitute a serious problem for Russian counterinsurgency operations. The event indicates that jihadism continues to expand in Russia and that Islamist terrorism cannot be reduced to people from the North Caucasus, while the role of North Caucasian jihadists should not be underestimated in the spread of the phenomenon.

When the Chinese view Central Asia, they see a region potentially primed for long-term economic growth but prone to short-term political instability. Chinese officials and academics consider a reduction in local wars and terrorism an essential prerequisite for the region’s long-term prosperity. They particularly worry that the recent political upheavals in the Middle East could spread to the Muslim-majority countries of Central Asia, a region of even higher priority for Beijing. They express interest in working with the international community, including Western governments, to reduce the negative effects on Central Asia of both the political disorders in the Middle East and the terrorism and narcotics trafficking related to Afghanistan.

The U.S. Congress is considering new draft legislation that will significantly tighten the existing sanctions regime against the Islamic Republic of Iran. This legislation could, if adopted in its current language, have unintended and negative consequences for U.S. strategic interests, as well as energy security, in the Black Sea-Caspian region. The potential sanctions contradict the existing U.S. policy of developing multiple export pipelines, a policy promoted and implemented by several U.S. administrations in the 20 years since collapse of the Soviet Union. The new legislation may contribute to the redirection of Azerbaijani energy exports to the north, towards Russia, and to the east, towards China, and may help strengthen Gazprom’s position in the Caucasus. 

In late July 2011, the Caucasus Emirate’s official media mouthpiece Kavkaz Center announced that the two rival factions within the emirate had reconciled their differences through a Shari’ah court. Aslambek Vadalov and Khusayn Gakayev, as well as other commanders who previously rescinded their bay’at to Doku Umarov, renewed their allegiance. This episode provides further evidence of the decline of Arab fighter influence in the Caucasus jihad, yet paradoxically shows the impact of popular Arab online jihadi shaykhs. It also solidifies Umarov’s pan-Caucasus project as the leading resistance to Russian aggression in contrast to the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria’s claims as the true representatives of the more nationalist-Islamist Chechen struggle.