Analytical Articles

Russian law enforcement recently tried to arrest a jihadist named Viktor Dvorakovsky. While the event itself can be regarded as a regular law enforcement operation, Dvorakovsky does not belong to any of the ethnic groups in Russia which are historically Muslims. Dvorakovsky’s case has indicated that jihadist converts, who have become Islamists in spite of lacking a historical connection to Islam, continue to constitute a serious problem for Russian counterinsurgency operations. The event indicates that jihadism continues to expand in Russia and that Islamist terrorism cannot be reduced to people from the North Caucasus, while the role of North Caucasian jihadists should not be underestimated in the spread of the phenomenon.

When the Chinese view Central Asia, they see a region potentially primed for long-term economic growth but prone to short-term political instability. Chinese officials and academics consider a reduction in local wars and terrorism an essential prerequisite for the region’s long-term prosperity. They particularly worry that the recent political upheavals in the Middle East could spread to the Muslim-majority countries of Central Asia, a region of even higher priority for Beijing. They express interest in working with the international community, including Western governments, to reduce the negative effects on Central Asia of both the political disorders in the Middle East and the terrorism and narcotics trafficking related to Afghanistan.

The U.S. Congress is considering new draft legislation that will significantly tighten the existing sanctions regime against the Islamic Republic of Iran. This legislation could, if adopted in its current language, have unintended and negative consequences for U.S. strategic interests, as well as energy security, in the Black Sea-Caspian region. The potential sanctions contradict the existing U.S. policy of developing multiple export pipelines, a policy promoted and implemented by several U.S. administrations in the 20 years since collapse of the Soviet Union. The new legislation may contribute to the redirection of Azerbaijani energy exports to the north, towards Russia, and to the east, towards China, and may help strengthen Gazprom’s position in the Caucasus. 

In late July 2011, the Caucasus Emirate’s official media mouthpiece Kavkaz Center announced that the two rival factions within the emirate had reconciled their differences through a Shari’ah court. Aslambek Vadalov and Khusayn Gakayev, as well as other commanders who previously rescinded their bay’at to Doku Umarov, renewed their allegiance. This episode provides further evidence of the decline of Arab fighter influence in the Caucasus jihad, yet paradoxically shows the impact of popular Arab online jihadi shaykhs. It also solidifies Umarov’s pan-Caucasus project as the leading resistance to Russian aggression in contrast to the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria’s claims as the true representatives of the more nationalist-Islamist Chechen struggle.

While Iran has often sought to cultivate the governments of Central Asia and the Caucasus, occasionally it has made use of forceful diplomatic, if not military, instruments. During 2011 Tehran has again displayed its claws.  Tajikistan has had to recall its students from Iranian religious schools, even though Tajikistan has  long tired to cultivate Iran politically, economically, and diplomatically. Iran also reacted harshly to Turkey’s growing criticism of its protégé in Damascus. Worst of all, a high-ranking Iranian general criticized Azerbaijan vocally for its ties to Israel and alleged anti-Islamic practices.

On July 15, unique hearings were held in the Oliy Majlis (Parliament) of Uzbekistan where a joint session of the Legislative Chamber and the Senate listened to the Prime Minister’s Report on measures taken by the Cabinet to further deepen democratic reforms and economic liberalization. The hearings were the first of their kind in terms of making the executive power accountable to the legislative power and demonstrating the introduction of a checks and balances system. The expected vote of no-confidence in the Prime Minister thus seems postponed.

On June 22, President Obama announced a withdrawal of 33,000 U.S. troops from Afghanistan by 2012. According to the U.S./NATO strategy, these governments should withdraw all their forces by 2014. However, although NATO plans no bases in Afghanistan, the U.S. is negotiating with Kabul to preserve some unspecified bases and is conducting an extensive program of military construction of facilities for Central Asian militaries. Central Asia is becoming more important as a supply route as U.S. ties to Pakistan deteriorate. These linked developments have generated reactions from many if not all of the interested parties to the conflict, which reveal future perceptions of security trends in Afghanistan and Central Asia.

After months of feuding the two rival factions within Chechnya’s rebel organisation have been reconciled. Doku Umarov, the disputed leader of the Caucasus Emirate organisation, has somehow prevailed upon his opponents in the Chechen branch of the organisation to once again recognize his legitimacy as Emir. Following some deft political manoeuvring, Umarov has rescued his dwindling legitimacy. But it remains to be seen if there is a hidden price for Umarov to pay for this new affectation of political unity within the rebel ranks, and in that case, for how long Umarov will remain the leader of the rebel organization.  

The competition among European actors hunting for Azerbaijani gas has intensified. Political and commercial actors backing various gas pipeline projects for transporting Azerbaijani gas to Europe are aware that the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) has to make a final decision by October 2011, while Azerbaijan keeps them guessing. During the Caspian Energy Dialogue held on July 15, SOCAR’s head Rovnag Abdullayev stressed that all European gas pipeline projects have been under consideration. Nevertheless, it seems that two such projects are in a highly favorable position to transport Azerbaijan’s gas to Europe. The Nabucco and ITGI consortiums have made new proposals to Azerbaijan in order to persuade Baku of the attractiveness of their projects.

Baluchistan is the largest and strategically most important province of Pakistan and will play an important role especially in the country’s economic future. Baloch culture is primarily tribal and its society is dominated by tribal sardars, nawabs and mirs. Since Pakistan’s independence in 1947, Baluchistan has seen several phases of violence and insurgency including the most violent in 1974-77. Since 2005, a low level insurgency is fought in the province. One of its unique features is the target killings of mainly Punjabi, but also Muhajir settlers. Regardless of a persistent militant rhetoric, the insurgency has been largely contained in the last few months.