Analytical Articles

The unresolved conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has once again raised its head. This is not surprising because the failure of Moscow’s attempt to broker a solution earlier this year appears to have conformed to a dynamic common to such conflict. Failed efforts at mediation lead to renewed tensions as each side blames the other and the spiral of recriminations continues until wiser heads or some other crisis prevails. New developments are contributing to an upsurge of tensions. Bako Sahakyan, president of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic told an interviewer that he wants an active role in any future negotiation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Naturally that would be a cause for breaking up any negotiation from Azerbaijan’s standpoint. 

The presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan on October 30 marked the first peaceful and voluntary handover of power from one leader to another in the history of post-Soviet Central Asia. Despite some shortcomings reported by external observers, the elections took place in an environment of freedom and impartiality. Kyrgyzstan’s task now is to sustain its development towards consolidated democratic practices. The president-elect, Almazbek Atambayev, has promised that from now on Kyrgyzstan will not see another revolution. However, he faces serious challenges. 

The Viking Railroad, connecting Lithuania with Ukraine via Belarus, is not among the most well-publicized transportation projects in the former Soviet Union but it is emerging as one of the most important. Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan have recently announced their willingness to partake and volumes are steadily expanding. The potential gains are also significant. Not only will participating governments capture sizeable transit revenues but old animosities, notably between Belarus and Lithuania, are being addressed as part of it. Russia, too, benefits as competition will revitalize its own railroads. The Viking Railroad’s commercial viability is proven but endemic corruption in states beyond may derail further extensions and erase the slim margins to sea-borne trade.

Negotiations between Armenia’s government and the main opposition force, the Armenian National Congress, have come to a halt. After a week of day-and-night rallies, demanding the immediate resignation of the incumbent president and snap elections, the opposition eventually announced that it was getting ready for the regular parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2012. These developments were taking place against the background of an apparent rift within the government camp, caused by rumors about the possible return of Armenia’s second president Robert Kocharyan into active politics.

On October 4, Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin published an article in Izvestiia, “A New Integration Project for Eurasia - The Future Is Being Born Today,” that announces the initiative to create a supranational political structure on top of the CIS Customs Union in which Belarus and Kazakhstan participate along with Russia. While the prospects for its realization are cloudy at best, the declaration suggests a reorientation of Russian foreign policy strategy under soon-to-be-president Putin that will de-emphasize Europe and the West in general to the extent possible.

Muhiddin Kabiri’s reelection as chairman of the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan signals that he has managed to foster internal cohesion within the party and consolidate his power. It also signals that Kabiri’s efforts to reform the group find broad support. Kabiri appears set to use this support to continue transforming the IRPT into a conventional political party, including by deemphasizing its Islamic identity. The transformation of the party is watched closely by the government, which sees the IRPT as the only political force with a potential to challenge President Emomali Rahmon’s grip on power.

Kyrgyzstan is about to hold presidential elections that will potentially mark the first peaceful and lawful transfer of power in the country and in the region. Most in Kyrgyzstan expect Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev to win the elections. The question, however, remains whether the elections will proceed without major violations and move Kyrgyzstan one step further in political development, or cause a deeper divide within the country into north and south. The process has so far been rather peaceful and well organized.

Attention to the Eastern Partnership Summit held on September 30 focused largely on Belarus’ refusal to participate and the implications of the Timoshenko trial for Ukraine’s Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA). However, the summit also highlighted some of the problems inherent in EU engagement with its Eastern neighbors, and especially in the case of Georgia. While Georgia’s EU orientation has become stronger after the 2008 war, many of the reforms required from Georgia to start negotiations for a DCFTA conflict with Georgia’s own market liberalization reforms. Moreover, the lack of clarity on what adherence to these requirements will imply in terms of long-term EU integration reduces the incentives for Georgia to comply.