Analytical Articles

In two recent airline hijackings, Afghanistan's Taliban movement has played key roles. The Taliban played host to the Indian Airways jet hijacked in December and were the target of the Ariana Airlines incident earlier this month. These two events reveal much about the current situation in Afghanistan and how the Taliban will continue to be a focal point for regional instability in the future.

President Islam Karimov's reelection in Uzbekistan has been followed by his statement that a program of economic liberalization and privatization will now be introduced in the country. Currency controls on the Uzbek som and its less than full convertibility, have been the greatest roadblocks to the overall development of the Central Asian trading block, called the Central Asian Union, that includes Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikstan. If barriers including bilateral trade tariffs can be overcome, the Central Asian Union holds the greatest potential to reanimate regional trade throughout the Central Asian region.

When Kazakhstan became an independent state almost a decade ago, it inherited a border conflict with China that dates back several centuries. Imperial China claimed jurisdiction over Central Asia, but in reality the Chinese seldom have been able to control the vast steppe area. The rivalry over the steppe territory continued until the end of the twentieth century. The unsolved issue of demarcation of the border was resolved, after more than five years of talks in 1998, when the Presidents of China and Kazakhstan signed an agreement on the line of their countries' 1,700km border. Today, the cross-border trade is "thriving" and many of the Kazakhstani and Chinese border regions have benefited significantly from being granted greater freedom to trade with their neighbors.

At the 25 January CIS Summit, Acting President Vladimir Putin asserted Russian dominance over the organization and opened the summit with a discussion of "the fight against terrorism." He emphasized the need to band together against international enemies who might exploit "weak points in the post-Soviet space." Such a call is an extension of on-going Russian attempts to use the pretext of fighting terrorism and curbing the flow of arms to Chechnya to define the region as an exclusive sphere of Russian influence and cower the pro-Western states of the south Caucasus into submission.

Recently, the army has shown greater flexibility about other Afghan peace initiatives. Pakistan did not condemn and even expressed mild support when former King Zahir Shah of Afghanistan met with a group of Afghan exiles in November.  These exiles are pushing for a reestablishment of a Loya Jirga (Grand Assembly), a traditional Afghan institution for resolving conflicts and governing the country. Pakistan also did not negatively react to meetings in Iran between Northern Alliance leaders and Iranian officials. The meetings involved all the major leaders from the Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara ethnic minorities who are part of the Northern Alliance. Iran and Russia are the principle providers of military aid to the Northern Alliance.

On February 27, Tajikistan will hold parliamentary elections. This will complete a six-month period of nationwide political campaigns including the reelection of President Emomali Rakhmonov and a referendum on constitutional amendments. It appears that president Rakhmonov’s election maneuvers are aimed to at least give the appearance of stimulating democracy, supporting human rights and a market economy, in order to secure limited aid from international organizations.

Recently, the army has shown greater flexibility about other Afghan peace initiatives. Pakistan did not condemn and even expressed mild support when former King Zahir Shah of Afghanistan met with a group of Afghan exiles in November.  These exiles are pushing for a reestablishment of a Loya Jirga (Grand Assembly), a traditional Afghan institution for resolving conflicts and governing the country. Pakistan also did not negatively react to meetings in Iran between Northern Alliance leaders and Iranian officials. The meetings involved all the major leaders from the Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara ethnic minorities who are part of the Northern Alliance. Iran and Russia are the principle providers of military aid to the Northern Alliance.

Kyrgyzstan has appealed to donor assistance for several years. But in late December 1999, Kyrgyz Prime Minister Armangeldy Muraliev declared that his country was in danger of defaulting on its foreign debts by the end of 2000. The year 2000 will be crucial for Kyrgyzstan, particularly during the tense upcoming election period. The forthcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, which will take place this beginning on 20 February, have led Akaev's government to harass the political opposition with increased intensity. However, because Western countries have invested tremendous political capital in Kyrgyzstan's image as the "island of democracy" in Central Asia, it is likely that donors will continue to support Kyrgyzstan no matter what.