Analytical Articles

Recently, the army has shown greater flexibility about other Afghan peace initiatives. Pakistan did not condemn and even expressed mild support when former King Zahir Shah of Afghanistan met with a group of Afghan exiles in November.  These exiles are pushing for a reestablishment of a Loya Jirga (Grand Assembly), a traditional Afghan institution for resolving conflicts and governing the country. Pakistan also did not negatively react to meetings in Iran between Northern Alliance leaders and Iranian officials. The meetings involved all the major leaders from the Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara ethnic minorities who are part of the Northern Alliance. Iran and Russia are the principle providers of military aid to the Northern Alliance.

Kyrgyzstan has appealed to donor assistance for several years. But in late December 1999, Kyrgyz Prime Minister Armangeldy Muraliev declared that his country was in danger of defaulting on its foreign debts by the end of 2000. The year 2000 will be crucial for Kyrgyzstan, particularly during the tense upcoming election period. The forthcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, which will take place this beginning on 20 February, have led Akaev's government to harass the political opposition with increased intensity. However, because Western countries have invested tremendous political capital in Kyrgyzstan's image as the "island of democracy" in Central Asia, it is likely that donors will continue to support Kyrgyzstan no matter what.