Analytical Articles

The March 23 elections to the new Tajikistan parliament were the final steps in the implementation of Tajikistan’s 1997 General Agreement on Peace and National Accord. The election results clearly showed the electorate’s preference for the President Rakhmanov’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The parties of the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) for first time in the history of the country independently took part in the elections but were soundly defeated by Rakhmanov’s ruling party due to fragmentation and lack of coherent programs.

Iran is playing a major role in trying to strengthen the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance in Afghanistan by increasing arms supplies to the Northern Alliance and trying to bring the disparate ethnic groups and leaders of the Northern Alliance in a common front. Iran's efforts are in preparation for what is expected to be a summer of heavy fighting as the Taliban prepare to launch a major offensive to conquer the remaining 20% of northeastern Afghanistan controlled by the Northern Alliance. Iran is backing several peace initiatives in order to undercut Pakistan, its main rival in the region that backs the Taliban. Iran continues to distrust the military regime in Pakistan as it shows no signs of lessening support to the Taliban.

The Kyrgyz Republic has been called the "island of democracy" ever since it gained independence in 1992. The name has been strong part of an initiative to launch a western style of democracy with basic principles of freedom of speech and concern for human rights and to attract western capital and support. However, the parliamentary election held on the 20 February has placed doubt within the international community and has raised an enormous question: how can the Kyrgyz Republic remain a credible "island of democracy" after an election in which the Communist Party won a majority of votes?

Tajikistan is moving towards peace, despite great difficulties. The joint mission of the United Nations, OSCE and 172 foreign observers pronounced that Tajikistan’s parliamentary elections were conducted satisfactorily. For the first time in the country and region, the opposition Islamic Revival Party, banned throughout the rest of Central Asia, participated in elections. To the great surprise of many outside observers, Tajikistan’s parliamentary elections served the interests of peace and demonstrated that national interests can be placed above personal and party interests. Tajikistanis have been pushed by their bitter civil war to conclude that a bad peace is better than a just war.

In less than a week during February-March 2000, the Chechens staged impressive military victories over a more aggressive, yet disjointed Russian force in both urban and rural engagements. Over less than six years, the two Chechnya wars have shown that the Russian military is still trapped in hierarchical, Cold War-era institutional structures. The Chechens, in contrast, are proven innovators of a new type of warfare. Their ability to disrupt Russian military forces features tactics unique to clan or tribal-based societies. The effectiveness of Chechen combat power is a function of very small units, properly organized with useful weaponry, good communications, and knowledge of battle space.

In mid-February, Turkmenistan’s President Saparmurat Niyazov rejected a proposal to split equally with Azerbaijan exports of natural gas through the proposed Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCGP) with a projected volume of 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year. The contract to construct the TGCP was awarded last year to PSG, a joint venture of Royal Dutch Shell, Bechtel and the GE Capital unit of General Electric. Turkmen President Niyazov accused US President Clinton’s Caspian advisor John Wolf of pressing Ashgabat to accept unfavorable conditions from Baku. Later on March 9, Niyazov announced an agreement with Azerbaijan President Aliyev to scale down Azerbaijan’s demands from nearly one-half of the pipeline’s capacity to one-sixth, thus defusing the latest clash between the Caspian’s hydrocarbon titans.

Iran’s February 18 parliamentary elections are not a second Iranian revolution. They were conducted entirely within the existing political structure and according to the 1979 constitution. The reform movement in Iran did score a major victory but it now faces severe constitutional challenges and the economic demands of its own supporters. If the reform program succeeds, the Iranian "threat" to its neighbors will not be invasion or subversion, but the more subtle model of a democratizing Islamic state where rulers cannot ignore their own people.

The January 20 parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan set off alarms in the West. The elections fulfilled the letter but not the spirit of democracy as many opposition candidates were excluded. This has become a common ploy used by Central Asian states to please Western donors but avoid painstaking reforms. All five Central Asian states feature authoritarian governments with power consolidated in the presidency. At one extreme, Turkmenistan's Saparmurat Niyazov has declared himself president for life. But at the other end of the five nation spectrum, Kyrgyzstan, the once hailed island of democracy, appears to be backsliding into its autocratic past.

Central Asian leaders have exaggerated the Islamic threat to their region. An Islamic alternative to inspire Central Asians to political action does not exist. Contrary to widespread assumptions, the common Islamic identity in Central Asia is too vague and too abstract to challenge nationally defined state boundaries. Assuming an Islamic challenge, however, has been used as an excuse to justify authoritarian tendencies throughout the region.

On February 2, US Senator Paul Wellstone sponsored a US Senate resolution to secure the release of Rebiya Kadeer, a Uyghur female millionaire fromXinjiang, China charged with "separatist activities". Over the past three years, China has executed Uyghur Muslims at a rate of one nearly every four days, many for "separatist" activities. Such executions are a strategic part of the measures China uses against Uyghur nationalists, Islamic rights activists, and cultural advocates--all activities that China brands "separatist." The government believes that the economic development of Xinjiang will foster Uyghur loyalty. But it is China's policies to suppress Islamic worship and undermine Uyghur leaders that produce the strong anti-Chinese sentiments and activities.