Analytical Articles

Central Asian leaders have exaggerated the Islamic threat to their region. An Islamic alternative to inspire Central Asians to political action does not exist. Contrary to widespread assumptions, the common Islamic identity in Central Asia is too vague and too abstract to challenge nationally defined state boundaries. Assuming an Islamic challenge, however, has been used as an excuse to justify authoritarian tendencies throughout the region.

Iran’s February 18 parliamentary elections are not a second Iranian revolution. They were conducted entirely within the existing political structure and according to the 1979 constitution. The reform movement in Iran did score a major victory but it now faces severe constitutional challenges and the economic demands of its own supporters. If the reform program succeeds, the Iranian "threat" to its neighbors will not be invasion or subversion, but the more subtle model of a democratizing Islamic state where rulers cannot ignore their own people.

The January 20 parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan set off alarms in the West. The elections fulfilled the letter but not the spirit of democracy as many opposition candidates were excluded. This has become a common ploy used by Central Asian states to please Western donors but avoid painstaking reforms. All five Central Asian states feature authoritarian governments with power consolidated in the presidency. At one extreme, Turkmenistan's Saparmurat Niyazov has declared himself president for life. But at the other end of the five nation spectrum, Kyrgyzstan, the once hailed island of democracy, appears to be backsliding into its autocratic past.

When Kazakhstan became an independent state almost a decade ago, it inherited a border conflict with China that dates back several centuries. Imperial China claimed jurisdiction over Central Asia, but in reality the Chinese seldom have been able to control the vast steppe area. The rivalry over the steppe territory continued until the end of the twentieth century. The unsolved issue of demarcation of the border was resolved, after more than five years of talks in 1998, when the Presidents of China and Kazakhstan signed an agreement on the line of their countries' 1,700km border. Today, the cross-border trade is "thriving" and many of the Kazakhstani and Chinese border regions have benefited significantly from being granted greater freedom to trade with their neighbors.

On February 2, US Senator Paul Wellstone sponsored a US Senate resolution to secure the release of Rebiya Kadeer, a Uyghur female millionaire fromXinjiang, China charged with "separatist activities". Over the past three years, China has executed Uyghur Muslims at a rate of one nearly every four days, many for "separatist" activities. Such executions are a strategic part of the measures China uses against Uyghur nationalists, Islamic rights activists, and cultural advocates--all activities that China brands "separatist." The government believes that the economic development of Xinjiang will foster Uyghur loyalty. But it is China's policies to suppress Islamic worship and undermine Uyghur leaders that produce the strong anti-Chinese sentiments and activities.

In two recent airline hijackings, Afghanistan's Taliban movement has played key roles. The Taliban played host to the Indian Airways jet hijacked in December and were the target of the Ariana Airlines incident earlier this month. These two events reveal much about the current situation in Afghanistan and how the Taliban will continue to be a focal point for regional instability in the future.

President Islam Karimov's reelection in Uzbekistan has been followed by his statement that a program of economic liberalization and privatization will now be introduced in the country. Currency controls on the Uzbek som and its less than full convertibility, have been the greatest roadblocks to the overall development of the Central Asian trading block, called the Central Asian Union, that includes Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikstan. If barriers including bilateral trade tariffs can be overcome, the Central Asian Union holds the greatest potential to reanimate regional trade throughout the Central Asian region.

At the 25 January CIS Summit, Acting President Vladimir Putin asserted Russian dominance over the organization and opened the summit with a discussion of "the fight against terrorism." He emphasized the need to band together against international enemies who might exploit "weak points in the post-Soviet space." Such a call is an extension of on-going Russian attempts to use the pretext of fighting terrorism and curbing the flow of arms to Chechnya to define the region as an exclusive sphere of Russian influence and cower the pro-Western states of the south Caucasus into submission.

Recently, the army has shown greater flexibility about other Afghan peace initiatives. Pakistan did not condemn and even expressed mild support when former King Zahir Shah of Afghanistan met with a group of Afghan exiles in November.  These exiles are pushing for a reestablishment of a Loya Jirga (Grand Assembly), a traditional Afghan institution for resolving conflicts and governing the country. Pakistan also did not negatively react to meetings in Iran between Northern Alliance leaders and Iranian officials. The meetings involved all the major leaders from the Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara ethnic minorities who are part of the Northern Alliance. Iran and Russia are the principle providers of military aid to the Northern Alliance.

On February 27, Tajikistan will hold parliamentary elections. This will complete a six-month period of nationwide political campaigns including the reelection of President Emomali Rakhmonov and a referendum on constitutional amendments. It appears that president Rakhmonov’s election maneuvers are aimed to at least give the appearance of stimulating democracy, supporting human rights and a market economy, in order to secure limited aid from international organizations.