Analytical Articles

The espionage trial of 13 Iranian Jews currently underway in Shiraz unfortunately bodes poorly for the Jewish defendants. Despite vigorous efforts on the part of Kazakhstan as mediator between Teheran and Tel Aviv, few observers doubt that the defendants will be found guilty. The only question remaining is whether they will be executed. The trial provides Iran and Israel with a unique opportunity and an apparatus with which to discuss issues of mutual interest. Furthermore, it highlights the importance of Central Asia in Israeli security planning and the successes that Tel Aviv has achieved in this regard. Curiously, this episode may provide an opportunity for Israel and Iran to reach some common ground.

The invasion of Batken, Kyrgyzstan by Islamic militants in the summer-autumn of 1999 is unlikely to be a unique event. Foreign terrorist groups, which have already formed near the Kyrgyzstan border in northern Tajikistan, will soon be in a position to destabilize southern Kyrgyzstan again. Kyrgyzstan's security is further threatened by the more insidious menaces of drug smuggling and terrorism. Confronted with a new international order and non-traditional threats to national security, it is necessary for Kyrgyzstan to unite with other Central Asian states on a regional and global level to prevent new threats to international peace.

The self-declared Republic of Nagorno Karabagh will go to the polls on June 18, 2000 to elect a new 33-seat parliament.  This election marks a watershed in Karabagh politics as it comes in the wake of a failed assassination attempt against the enclave's president by elements linked to the former defense minister.  And with the promise of progress in the continuing meetings on the Karabagh conflict between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, the elections may determine whether Karabagh is ready, or able, to reach a final negotiated solution to the long-standing conflict.

The Eurasian corridor pipeline deal signifies a new geo-economic regional partnership that will involve the creation of a joint military force to defend the pipelines from military and terrorist attack. This new partnership will create a route for Central Asian oil that will flow outside the control of Russia despite Russia’s increasing anger over the project. While it is important to implement this economic project, it might be difficult to avoid the growing division of the Transcaucasus into two opposed military groupings that are facing off across the pipeline routes and which could undermine Transcaucasian security.

Since 1998, Asian investors have realized just how low the return has been on their investments in Central Asia. They have adopted a cautious approach and wait for a regionwide in-depth liberalization conducive to massive capital flows into the region. Now, that the Asian economies are stabilizing, will Asian investment return to become a major factor in the development of the Central Asian economies ? It appears that East-Asian countries have realized that it is much easier and more profitable to invest in South-East Asia or in Central Europe than in Central Asia.

Few doubted Eduard Shevardnadze's victory in the elections. His election slogan " Many Honest Candidates - One Choice" clearly reflected the reality that Shevardnadze was the only candidate who would continue Georgia’s democratization and its integration with the western world. His main contestant Djumber Patiashvili’s decision to enter the race was regarded as a "scarecrow syndrome" in which the president’s strongest rival was so reprehensible that voters had no alternative than vote for Shevardnadze’s reelection. Now the biggest question on voters’ minds is who will lead post-Shevardnadze Georgia after 2005.

Behind the recent rise in rhetoric regarding terrorist threats in Central Asia between Russia and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, Russian President-elect Vladimir Putin is attempting to resurrect Moscow's ability to garner intelligence and achieve security in this critical region. Cooperation on intelligence matters began as early as August 1999 when Putin started his drive for the Russian presidency. Since his ascension to Acting President and now President, the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense continue to convince key Central Asian states to accept Russian notions of regional security based on the Russo-Chechen war.

Secretary of State Madeleine Albright arrives April 14 in Kazakhstan, on the first leg of a week-long tour of Central Asia that will also take her to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The visit occurs against a backdrop of increasing Russian diplomatic activity in the region in the period since Vladimir Putin's appointment as Acting President by Boris Yeltsin and subsequent election in his own right. This coincidence opens speculation about United States-Russian relations in Central Asia and the directions Central Asian countries themselves will choose to chart their futures.

Central Asian integration has severely declined during the last six months as Central Asian leaders have placed barriers to regional cross-border interactions citing perceived national security threats. This trend will continue unless the Central Asia leadership will seriously work toward ensuring regional security through co-operation instead of confrontation. It is only when Central Asia’s regional security unfolds that the region’s population will experience economic opportunity.

Western governments and experts have been puzzling over Vladimir Putin, the newly elected president of Russia, and where he will lead his country. Putin's stated goal is to restore Russia's prestige and leading role in the world. Although he has not yet outlined in detail how he plans to accomplish this objective, the former Soviet Central Asian republics have already noticed the way the wind is blowing and are quietly re-adjusting to life in the Russian orbit.