Analytical Articles

Secretary of State Madeleine Albright arrives April 14 in Kazakhstan, on the first leg of a week-long tour of Central Asia that will also take her to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The visit occurs against a backdrop of increasing Russian diplomatic activity in the region in the period since Vladimir Putin's appointment as Acting President by Boris Yeltsin and subsequent election in his own right. This coincidence opens speculation about United States-Russian relations in Central Asia and the directions Central Asian countries themselves will choose to chart their futures.

Few doubted Eduard Shevardnadze's victory in the elections. His election slogan " Many Honest Candidates - One Choice" clearly reflected the reality that Shevardnadze was the only candidate who would continue Georgia’s democratization and its integration with the western world. His main contestant Djumber Patiashvili’s decision to enter the race was regarded as a "scarecrow syndrome" in which the president’s strongest rival was so reprehensible that voters had no alternative than vote for Shevardnadze’s reelection. Now the biggest question on voters’ minds is who will lead post-Shevardnadze Georgia after 2005.

Western governments and experts have been puzzling over Vladimir Putin, the newly elected president of Russia, and where he will lead his country. Putin's stated goal is to restore Russia's prestige and leading role in the world. Although he has not yet outlined in detail how he plans to accomplish this objective, the former Soviet Central Asian republics have already noticed the way the wind is blowing and are quietly re-adjusting to life in the Russian orbit.

The March 23 elections to the new Tajikistan parliament were the final steps in the implementation of Tajikistan’s 1997 General Agreement on Peace and National Accord. The election results clearly showed the electorate’s preference for the President Rakhmanov’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The parties of the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) for first time in the history of the country independently took part in the elections but were soundly defeated by Rakhmanov’s ruling party due to fragmentation and lack of coherent programs.

Iran is playing a major role in trying to strengthen the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance in Afghanistan by increasing arms supplies to the Northern Alliance and trying to bring the disparate ethnic groups and leaders of the Northern Alliance in a common front. Iran's efforts are in preparation for what is expected to be a summer of heavy fighting as the Taliban prepare to launch a major offensive to conquer the remaining 20% of northeastern Afghanistan controlled by the Northern Alliance. Iran is backing several peace initiatives in order to undercut Pakistan, its main rival in the region that backs the Taliban. Iran continues to distrust the military regime in Pakistan as it shows no signs of lessening support to the Taliban.

Central Asian integration has severely declined during the last six months as Central Asian leaders have placed barriers to regional cross-border interactions citing perceived national security threats. This trend will continue unless the Central Asia leadership will seriously work toward ensuring regional security through co-operation instead of confrontation. It is only when Central Asia’s regional security unfolds that the region’s population will experience economic opportunity.

Tajikistan is moving towards peace, despite great difficulties. The joint mission of the United Nations, OSCE and 172 foreign observers pronounced that Tajikistan’s parliamentary elections were conducted satisfactorily. For the first time in the country and region, the opposition Islamic Revival Party, banned throughout the rest of Central Asia, participated in elections. To the great surprise of many outside observers, Tajikistan’s parliamentary elections served the interests of peace and demonstrated that national interests can be placed above personal and party interests. Tajikistanis have been pushed by their bitter civil war to conclude that a bad peace is better than a just war.

In less than a week during February-March 2000, the Chechens staged impressive military victories over a more aggressive, yet disjointed Russian force in both urban and rural engagements. Over less than six years, the two Chechnya wars have shown that the Russian military is still trapped in hierarchical, Cold War-era institutional structures. The Chechens, in contrast, are proven innovators of a new type of warfare. Their ability to disrupt Russian military forces features tactics unique to clan or tribal-based societies. The effectiveness of Chechen combat power is a function of very small units, properly organized with useful weaponry, good communications, and knowledge of battle space.

In mid-February, Turkmenistan’s President Saparmurat Niyazov rejected a proposal to split equally with Azerbaijan exports of natural gas through the proposed Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCGP) with a projected volume of 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year. The contract to construct the TGCP was awarded last year to PSG, a joint venture of Royal Dutch Shell, Bechtel and the GE Capital unit of General Electric. Turkmen President Niyazov accused US President Clinton’s Caspian advisor John Wolf of pressing Ashgabat to accept unfavorable conditions from Baku. Later on March 9, Niyazov announced an agreement with Azerbaijan President Aliyev to scale down Azerbaijan’s demands from nearly one-half of the pipeline’s capacity to one-sixth, thus defusing the latest clash between the Caspian’s hydrocarbon titans.

The Kyrgyz Republic has been called the "island of democracy" ever since it gained independence in 1992. The name has been strong part of an initiative to launch a western style of democracy with basic principles of freedom of speech and concern for human rights and to attract western capital and support. However, the parliamentary election held on the 20 February has placed doubt within the international community and has raised an enormous question: how can the Kyrgyz Republic remain a credible "island of democracy" after an election in which the Communist Party won a majority of votes?