Analytical Articles

On May 25, Pakistan's Chief Executive General Pervaiz Musharraf for the first time explicitly articulated Pakistan's reasons for its continued backing of the Taliban. He stated that in view of the demographic and geographic pattern of Afghanistan's majority ethnic Pashtuns, it is in Pakistan’s national interest and national security interest to support the predominantly Pashtun Taliban regime. Musharraf's public enunciation of an ethnically biased policy towards Afghanistan elicited widespread criticism from the Northern Alliance opposing the Taliban and ex-King Zahir Shah and should further antagonize Russia, Iran and the Central Asian Republics as such a policy makes no accommodation to the national security interests of these neighbors.

The current war in Chechnya, only the most recent stage in a decade-long conflict over Chechnya’s status, displays notable differences in comparison with the other 1994-96 armed stage of the conflict. The first war was primarily ethnic and national in character whereas the current war has a substantially more pronounced religious character. As the Chechens legitimize their war effort in increasingly Islamic terms, they find it easier to earn foreign financial support. More importantly, increasing numbers of Muslims are finding their way to Chechnya with the goal of fighting the jihad against Russia. Besides denying the Russians a decisive victory in the war, these outside Muslim fighters have substantially increased the risk for a contagion and diffusion of the conflict.

With the recent announcement of the discovery of a new enormous offshore oil deposit in the Caspian Sea, a renewed geopolitical offensive is on course to upset the delicate political landscape of the region. The reengagement of both regional and global powers in a struggle for control over the energy resources and their outlets is set against a fragile backdrop of new presidents in Turkey and Russia, new governments in Georgia and Armenia, and internal political tension in Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabagh. Seen in this light, it seems apparent that the new "Great Game," and all of its rival players, will return to the geopolitical arena, posing the question of whether this new Caspian oil offers promise or peril to the region.

Iran has the potential to become a major political force, a power broker and an economic power in the Caspian Sea basin. Iran’s control of the Persian Gulf and its control of Caspian Sea oil pipelines could enormously add to its economic and geopolitical prominence. But this potential is currently mired in the complexities of Iran’s domestic politics and its international isolation. The key to any breakthrough is progress toward reforms at home and mending ties with the West. While maintaining ties with Russia, the country is slowly but deliberately moving toward accommodation with the West, particularly the United States. The pace and scope of these developments will eventually determine the level of Iran’s short-term and long-term impact on the region.

The espionage trial of 13 Iranian Jews currently underway in Shiraz unfortunately bodes poorly for the Jewish defendants. Despite vigorous efforts on the part of Kazakhstan as mediator between Teheran and Tel Aviv, few observers doubt that the defendants will be found guilty. The only question remaining is whether they will be executed. The trial provides Iran and Israel with a unique opportunity and an apparatus with which to discuss issues of mutual interest. Furthermore, it highlights the importance of Central Asia in Israeli security planning and the successes that Tel Aviv has achieved in this regard. Curiously, this episode may provide an opportunity for Israel and Iran to reach some common ground.

The invasion of Batken, Kyrgyzstan by Islamic militants in the summer-autumn of 1999 is unlikely to be a unique event. Foreign terrorist groups, which have already formed near the Kyrgyzstan border in northern Tajikistan, will soon be in a position to destabilize southern Kyrgyzstan again. Kyrgyzstan's security is further threatened by the more insidious menaces of drug smuggling and terrorism. Confronted with a new international order and non-traditional threats to national security, it is necessary for Kyrgyzstan to unite with other Central Asian states on a regional and global level to prevent new threats to international peace.

The Eurasian corridor pipeline deal signifies a new geo-economic regional partnership that will involve the creation of a joint military force to defend the pipelines from military and terrorist attack. This new partnership will create a route for Central Asian oil that will flow outside the control of Russia despite Russia’s increasing anger over the project. While it is important to implement this economic project, it might be difficult to avoid the growing division of the Transcaucasus into two opposed military groupings that are facing off across the pipeline routes and which could undermine Transcaucasian security.

Since 1998, Asian investors have realized just how low the return has been on their investments in Central Asia. They have adopted a cautious approach and wait for a regionwide in-depth liberalization conducive to massive capital flows into the region. Now, that the Asian economies are stabilizing, will Asian investment return to become a major factor in the development of the Central Asian economies ? It appears that East-Asian countries have realized that it is much easier and more profitable to invest in South-East Asia or in Central Europe than in Central Asia.

The self-declared Republic of Nagorno Karabagh will go to the polls on June 18, 2000 to elect a new 33-seat parliament.  This election marks a watershed in Karabagh politics as it comes in the wake of a failed assassination attempt against the enclave's president by elements linked to the former defense minister.  And with the promise of progress in the continuing meetings on the Karabagh conflict between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, the elections may determine whether Karabagh is ready, or able, to reach a final negotiated solution to the long-standing conflict.

Few doubted Eduard Shevardnadze's victory in the elections. His election slogan " Many Honest Candidates - One Choice" clearly reflected the reality that Shevardnadze was the only candidate who would continue Georgia’s democratization and its integration with the western world. His main contestant Djumber Patiashvili’s decision to enter the race was regarded as a "scarecrow syndrome" in which the president’s strongest rival was so reprehensible that voters had no alternative than vote for Shevardnadze’s reelection. Now the biggest question on voters’ minds is who will lead post-Shevardnadze Georgia after 2005.