Analytical Articles

The lack of economic momentum in Uzbekistan has led to a general decline of great-power interest in the country. In a vicious circle, Uzbekistan's profile in international and regional diplomacy has fallen in turn. Its response could be called an "all directions" strategy, after France’s General DeGaulle's "tous azimuts" nuclear doctrine of the 1960s. But whereas DeGaulle targeted the source of every possible threat, even from allies, for President Karimov "all directions" means looking for help from whatever direction of the compass he can find it. This policy on the part of the government risks manifesting as an "every man for himself" policy for Uzbekistani individuals in their everyday lives.

October 29, 2000 marked once again in the history of Kyrgyzstan the country’s inability to comply with international standards for free, equal, fair and democratic elections. The new requirement requiring candidates to pass a mandatory Kyrgyz language test sparked tremendous controversy. Askar Akaev won the presidency for a third five-year term even though the Kyrgyz Constitution limits the president to two terms in office. Critics claim that Kyrgyzstan under President Akaev is moving away from its position as an "island of democracy." Has it become an "island of autocracy"?

At the heart of the Aral Sea tragedy is a witch's brew of toxins. The Aral Sea region was the location where Soviet scientists field tested some of the world’s most toxic diseases and viruses. The region was also chosen for disposal of Soviet-engineered pathogens. It is crucial that the West immediately focus its attention on the ecological and biological implications of the Aral Sea debacle, and help Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan resolve their problems. Otherwise, their problems may visit the West in a form more virulent than anything seen since the Black Death.

Notwithstanding the enormous literature dealing with the so called "New Great Game" and Russo-American geopolitical rivalry in Central Asia, Central Asian states and even some of the major external players, Russia and China, are engaging the major states of East Asia on an ever deeper basis. This engagement owes much to the East Asian states’ rising demand for secure energy supplies to sustain their reviving economies. But it also reflects changes in evolving security relationships that are bringing together East and South Asia with Central Asia. The ensuing diversification of the Central Asian governments’ foreign policy agendas can only help them avoid the trap of excessive dependence upon foreign great powers.

October 29, 2000 marked once again in the history of Kyrgyzstan the country’s inability to comply with international standards for free, equal, fair and democratic elections. The new requirement requiring candidates to pass a mandatory Kyrgyz language test sparked tremendous controversy. Askar Akaev, the newly re-elected President of Kyrgyzstan, won the presidency for a third five-year term even though the Kyrgyz Constitution limits the president to two terms in office. Such election policies do not seem to be in accordance with the principles of democracy. Critics claim that Kyrgyzstan under President Akaev is moving away from its position as the "island of democracy." Has it become an "island of autocracy".

The striking success at the Sydney Olympics of athletes from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and other nations of Central Asia and the Caucasus region has raised questions about whether the region’s performance heralds the rise of a new territorial power base in sports. Is the world revisiting the 1960s, when athletes from a number of African countries freshly liberated from colonial dependence jumped to the front of the world athletic stage? While it may appear that the countries of the Central Asia-Caucasus region are the next sports miracle to come over the horizon, Sydney was not the birth of new sporting giants. Instead, Olympics 2000 was the fading afterglow of the Soviet sports juggernaut.

Since 1979 Afghanistan has been a thorn in the side of Soviet and Russian security. Today it is clear that Afghanistan's ruling faction, the Taliban, is a source of support for insurgents, terrorists, and narcotics trafficking across the CIS, not just Central Asia. The vexing problems that insurgency, terror, and drugs have spawned in Central and South Asia have triggered numerous international efforts to promote a settlement to the Afghan civil war between the Taliban and its rivals that has long defied international settlement.

Based on the latest evidence, it appears that Shamil Basayev’s agents might have convinced one or more radicalized Dagestani sailors on the Kursk to sink the submarine with a suicide blast on 12 August. The world does not know for certain what happened to the Kursk as it now lies 350 feet down in the Barents Sea. While the Russian government may well encase the submarine in concrete to prevent radiation leakage, a move that also would conveniently prevent foreign governments from conducting their own investigations, many signs point to Dagestani sabotage.

Last month’s call by the Speaker of the Russian State Duma, Gennady Seleznev, for the Russian Federation to introduce automatic citizenship to all former Soviet citizens who desire it would create political, security, legal tensions with former Soviet Republics, particularly the Transcaucasian countries. Should the policy be enacted, Moscow could jeopardize the security of the entire region. For example, the Foreign Minister of the self-proclaimed Abkhaz government, Sergey Shamba, recently received Russian citizenship and stated that should Seleznev’s proposal be adopted, the majority of the present 300,000 citizens of Abkhazia are likely to accept Russian citizenship as well. If relations between Moscow and the Transcaucasian republics are not resolved quickly, the situation could spin out of control.

Tajikistan's fragile ceasefire and process of political reconciliation is being increasingly threatened by both the insurgency launched by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in three Central Asian Republics and the Taliban conquest of almost the entire Afghanistan-Tajikistan border. The government of Tajikistan is being weakened and the state is being undermined by a massive draught, growing economic problems, a growing dependency on Russia, continuing law and order problems and the escalation of drugs trafficking from Afghanistan. Unless there is greater Western material help and political support for Tajikistan, the country will become even more dependent on Moscow for aid and the fragile political equilibrium in the country could break down.