Analytical Articles

The spread of radical political Islam in Dagestan throughout the 1990s occurred as a reaction against local pseudo-religious practices, as well as against the inequities of socio-economic transition, and broader westernizing influences. The extent that the radical Muslims there are literally followers of Muhammad ibn Abd-al-Wahhabi is unclear, though there is no denying their complete opposition to traditional North Caucasian Islam. Its spread cannot be attributed to the war with Russia. In fact the opposite is true. Since August 1999, the conflict with Russia has done much to undermine political Islam and Wahhabism in the Dagestan. The failure of Wahhabism in Dagestan is a watershed event with significant implications for the Caucasus and Central Asia. Had political Islam taken hold in Dagestan, Russia would probably not have held the Northeast Caucasus.

BACKGROUND: Four years ago, Uzbekistan in desperation to attract foreign investors, welcomed with open arms foreign cigarette companies and their millions of dollars of investment capital.  One particular company, British American Tobacco fleeing troubled western waters, pitched in with $300 million to secure a 51% stake in Uzbekistan’s tobacco monopoly. By 1997, the stake was 97%.  In return for mortgaging the health of his country’s 24 million people, Islam Karimov the president of the newly independent republic, gained new factories and fermentation plants, superior leaf research and a “secure” future for 60,000 new farmers whose lives now depend on the tobacco industry.

In January of this year, US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright named Ukraine as a major force for achieving stability in the Caucasus region. Ukraine is vitally important for creating a secure and integrated Europe. As former National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter, Zbignew Brzezinski, has stated, "If Ukraine becomes a strong central European state, it will "drag" some other CIS countries to Europe, particularly South Caucasian republics". Ukraine is shouldering greater regional responsibilities in the geopolitical, military, democratic and economic realms. Should it manage to become more successful than Russia in carrying out such activities as peacekeeping missions in the Caucasian conflicts, its importance in Europe will multiply.

The recent "invasion" of Surkhandarya, Uzbekistan by "Islamists" represents but the latest stage in an escalating cycle of violence directed against the Karimov government. The actual military threat posed by such insurgencies is minimal, and such actions actually serve to reinforce the perception among Western and Russian leaders that Karimov represents a vital barricade against Islamic fundamentalism. Karimov’s authoritarianism has not brought increased stability, but on the contrary has radicalized the opposition and destabilized Uzbekistan and its neighbors.

Lieutenant General Feliks Kulov, Kyrgyzstan’s former Vice-President, former Minister of Defense, former Governor of the Chui region, former Mayor of Bishkek, and leader of the "Ar-Namys"(Dignity) opposition party was arrested in March after he had declared his candidacy to run in the presidential elections in December, 2000. He was accused of abuse of office, of selling military goods and of abetting official forgery. On August 7 after a long and complicated struggle for justice, Kulov was cleared of the charges against him. The release of Feliks Kulov from prison is sure to spell further trouble for Akaev’s government.

Under the "Go West" program announced last June, China intends to build up nine provinces including Gansu, Guizhou, Ningxia, Qinghai Shaanxi, Sichuan, Tibet, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, as well as the city of Chongqing, into the next motors of the country's economic development over the course of several decades. In this context, the chairman of the West-East Pipeline Project has announced that foreign investors would be welcome in all upstream and downstream phases of the project without limits. The reason, as he said, is that China lacks the skills, capital and technology to build the project on its own.

From its inception in 1992, the Russo-Chinese rapprochement has prominently featured Central Asia as the object of mutual geopolitical interests. Both governments have endeavored to prevent domestic unrest from receiving Central Asian support or from extending into all of Central Asia. This relationship sought to put Central Asia "on ice" and safeguard Russo-Chinese internal stability and territorial integrity. China hoped to do so by recognizing Russian leadership in Central Asia and by launching its own program of large-scale economic reform in Xinjiang. Such policies, intended to avert violence, actually make its incidence all the more likely.

An 'arc of instability' ranges from the Caucasus, over the Caspian Sea through Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan. These areas have in common the weakness of state authority, the lack of legitimate let alone democratic institutions, protracted economic difficulties and widespread poverty, porous borders, as well as the salience of ethnic tensions and religious extremism. Washington needs to be involved in the Caspian-Asian region to maintain a security balance, ensure the safe flow of oil, and undermine activities such as terrorism and drug trade that threaten its declared vital interests--the area certainly warrants priority status in America's global agenda.

Following the shock of the Russian financial collapse in August 1997, the Central Asian states experienced a deteriorating regional trade environment. But efforts to combat trafficking of drugs, weapons, and terrorism have inclined the states into self-protective policies, defeating prospects for greater regional cooperation. Recently, the Central Asian presidents, with the exception of Turkmenistan’s President Niyazov, agreed to recreate a common economic space and to develop a five-year strategy of economic development and integration to establish a Central Asian free trade zone.

Russia has accused Chechen field commander Shamil Basayev of not only invading the Russian republic of Dagestan, but of masterminding a bombing campaign in Russia in fall of 1999. One of the stated aims of the recent Russian campaign in Chechnya is to destroy Basayev and his militia and end the rule of warlords in the self proclaimed Chechen state of Ichkeria. Russia claims its latest invasion of Chechnya is a defensive action to defend its borders from Chechen 'terrorists'. Bashayev, who had his foot blown off by a land mine, considers himself a modern incarnation of the legendary Caucasian mountain warrior/raiders ("abreks") and vows to continue the struggle against the Russians. There is every reason to believe that he will lead a determined partisan war against the Russian forces in Chechnya, a war that Russia has little hope of "winning."