Analytical Articles

On October 4, Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin published an article in Izvestiia, “A New Integration Project for Eurasia - The Future Is Being Born Today,” that announces the initiative to create a supranational political structure on top of the CIS Customs Union in which Belarus and Kazakhstan participate along with Russia. While the prospects for its realization are cloudy at best, the declaration suggests a reorientation of Russian foreign policy strategy under soon-to-be-president Putin that will de-emphasize Europe and the West in general to the extent possible.

Muhiddin Kabiri’s reelection as chairman of the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan signals that he has managed to foster internal cohesion within the party and consolidate his power. It also signals that Kabiri’s efforts to reform the group find broad support. Kabiri appears set to use this support to continue transforming the IRPT into a conventional political party, including by deemphasizing its Islamic identity. The transformation of the party is watched closely by the government, which sees the IRPT as the only political force with a potential to challenge President Emomali Rahmon’s grip on power.

Kyrgyzstan is about to hold presidential elections that will potentially mark the first peaceful and lawful transfer of power in the country and in the region. Most in Kyrgyzstan expect Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev to win the elections. The question, however, remains whether the elections will proceed without major violations and move Kyrgyzstan one step further in political development, or cause a deeper divide within the country into north and south. The process has so far been rather peaceful and well organized.

Attention to the Eastern Partnership Summit held on September 30 focused largely on Belarus’ refusal to participate and the implications of the Timoshenko trial for Ukraine’s Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA). However, the summit also highlighted some of the problems inherent in EU engagement with its Eastern neighbors, and especially in the case of Georgia. While Georgia’s EU orientation has become stronger after the 2008 war, many of the reforms required from Georgia to start negotiations for a DCFTA conflict with Georgia’s own market liberalization reforms. Moreover, the lack of clarity on what adherence to these requirements will imply in terms of long-term EU integration reduces the incentives for Georgia to comply.

Mass demonstrations of ethnic Azerbaijanis protesting the drying up of Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran, the Middle East’s largest water reservoir and the third largest salt-water lake in the world, recently struck the cities of Iranian Azerbaijan. Although information from the region is scarce, numerous reports state that hundreds of protesters have been beaten, arrested and mistreated by Iranian police and security forces. Additionally, new clashes have taken place between supporters of the Tehran-based Esteqlal and the Tabriz-based Tractor Sazi football club (TSFC) with the latter raising Urmiye-related claims alongside their longtime demands for establishing school education in Azerbaijani Turkish.

On September 1, President Islam Karimov delivered his customary speech at the celebrations of Uzbekistan’s 20th anniversary of independence. The emphasis on independence and on the “Uzbek Model” for economic development continues to be expounded as the general principle for how Uzbek authorities wish to engage with international actors. The address therefore has demonstrated the Uzbek government’s persistence in applying those two pillars in its relations. President Karimov thus signaled that little will change in Uzbekistan’s reluctance to commit wholly to partnerships with foreign actors, a fact which has become clear in Uzbekistan’s relations with two important Western states, Germany and the U.S.

Admiral Mullen’s recent statement that the Haqqani network is a strategic arm of Pakistan has given rise to a new crisis in relations between Islamabad and Washington. Many in the U.S. are demanding that Pakistan no longer be treated as an ally. While Afghanistan might be important in the short run, Pakistan is pivotal. It is important for both parties to work together for peace and security. It is high time that both Washington and Islamabad take joint steps to repair and improve the mutual relationship.

This fall several thousand students in Kazakhstan will enter universities of a very different type – research universities. In an attempt to reform its higher education system, introduce international standards and encourage research and innovation, the Ministry of Education of Kazakhstan plans to designate 5-6 universities (out of 146), as research universities. These educational institutions – modeled after U.S. research universities such as MIT and Stanford – are envisioned as centers of research and innovation where a new generation of researchers and scholars will prepare to deal with the challenges of globalization. But will these universities deliver the intended outcomes?

The opening of Afghanistan’s first major railroad in August promises transformative economic and geopolitical changes that are yet to be fully understood. The recent completion of a railroad line from the Afghan-Uzbek border to Mazar-i-Sharif will be complemented by a railroad from Iran. Along with railroads planned by China and Pakistan, this will create economic synergies as Afghanistan is integrated with the railroads of its neighbors. Geopolitically, the Afghan railroads dovetail with China’s massive railroad program in Central Asia, Pakistan, and Iran. Further, as Iran, Pakistan, and Russia are hedging their bets on a U.S. troop withdrawal, railroads will strengthen their influence in Afghanistan. The railroad frenzy should be seen in this light.

Ukraine plans to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) port on the Black Sea for gas that it plans to buy from Azerbaijan. The two countries’ foreign ministers recently met in Baku with a view towards implementing this and other economic and energy agreements reached during Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s recent visit to Ukraine. The project is part and parcel of Ukraine’s strategy to diversify its sources of energy supply away from Russia, as the Nord Stream pipeline comes on line and Russian gas exports to Europe begin to shift to that corridor.