Analytical Articles

In the first interview of a prominent leader of Central Asia’s largest underground Islamic party, Hizb-e Tahrir, the leader explains the party's philosophy and aims. The party is intensely secretive and the interview was carried out on the basis that his name and the location of the interview would not be revealed.

During the recent elections, foreign observers watched in astonishment as boxes were stuffed with false ballots and opposition politicians were threatened with arrest. Over the past five years, the Azerbaijan parliament has served as a tool of President Aliev’s government. Parliamentary inquiries into the nation’s socio-political problems, corruption, oil contracts, and Nagorno-Karabakh have largely been ignored or treated as an attempt to destabilize the country. Akaev’s ruling party claimed during the November 2000 parliamentary elections that the country was enjoying peace and prosperity and thus deserved to lead the country into 21st century. Opposition parties have refused to participate in the new parliament and will work together to nullify the election results and hold new parliamentary elections.

A confrontation with enormous international consequences is brewing in the heartland of Asia. The two largest underground opposition Islamic movements in Uzbekistan have regional ambitions to overthrow all of the Central Asian regimes and reconstitute the borders of these states in order to recreate an Islamic Turkestan. The leader of Hizb-e Tehrir (HT) or Party of Liberation, believed to be the largest and most popular Islamic movement in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, plans to establish an Islamic Caliphate in the historical region once known as Turkestan.

The ongoing insurgency in southern Central Asia is the outer demonstration of a recent broader developing trend. Central Asia, especially the three southern states of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, are becoming increasingly tied in security matters to the areas to their South and East, that is to Asia. This negates the nearly decade-old paradigm of a 'Turkish-Iranian-Russian triangle' in the geopolitics of the region. Turkey and Iran play only a small role in Central Asian security, but the Central Asia region is becoming part of an emerging security complex centering on Afghanistan. In the new equation, US-Russian collusion in Central Asia signals a break in the confrontation that has marked NATO-Russian relations since the 1999 Kosovo war.

At the heart of the Aral Sea tragedy is a witch's brew of toxins. The Aral Sea region was the location where Soviet scientists field tested some of the world’s most toxic diseases and viruses. The region was also chosen for disposal of Soviet-engineered pathogens. It is crucial that the West immediately focus its attention on the ecological and biological implications of the Aral Sea debacle, and help Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan resolve their problems. Otherwise, their problems may visit the West in a form more virulent than anything seen since the Black Death.

Notwithstanding the enormous literature dealing with the so called "New Great Game" and Russo-American geopolitical rivalry in Central Asia, Central Asian states and even some of the major external players, Russia and China, are engaging the major states of East Asia on an ever deeper basis. This engagement owes much to the East Asian states’ rising demand for secure energy supplies to sustain their reviving economies. But it also reflects changes in evolving security relationships that are bringing together East and South Asia with Central Asia. The ensuing diversification of the Central Asian governments’ foreign policy agendas can only help them avoid the trap of excessive dependence upon foreign great powers.

October 29, 2000 marked once again in the history of Kyrgyzstan the country’s inability to comply with international standards for free, equal, fair and democratic elections. The new requirement requiring candidates to pass a mandatory Kyrgyz language test sparked tremendous controversy. Askar Akaev, the newly re-elected President of Kyrgyzstan, won the presidency for a third five-year term even though the Kyrgyz Constitution limits the president to two terms in office. Such election policies do not seem to be in accordance with the principles of democracy. Critics claim that Kyrgyzstan under President Akaev is moving away from its position as the "island of democracy." Has it become an "island of autocracy".

The lack of economic momentum in Uzbekistan has led to a general decline of great-power interest in the country. In a vicious circle, Uzbekistan's profile in international and regional diplomacy has fallen in turn. Its response could be called an "all directions" strategy, after France’s General DeGaulle's "tous azimuts" nuclear doctrine of the 1960s. But whereas DeGaulle targeted the source of every possible threat, even from allies, for President Karimov "all directions" means looking for help from whatever direction of the compass he can find it. This policy on the part of the government risks manifesting as an "every man for himself" policy for Uzbekistani individuals in their everyday lives.

October 29, 2000 marked once again in the history of Kyrgyzstan the country’s inability to comply with international standards for free, equal, fair and democratic elections. The new requirement requiring candidates to pass a mandatory Kyrgyz language test sparked tremendous controversy. Askar Akaev won the presidency for a third five-year term even though the Kyrgyz Constitution limits the president to two terms in office. Critics claim that Kyrgyzstan under President Akaev is moving away from its position as an "island of democracy." Has it become an "island of autocracy"?

The striking success at the Sydney Olympics of athletes from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and other nations of Central Asia and the Caucasus region has raised questions about whether the region’s performance heralds the rise of a new territorial power base in sports. Is the world revisiting the 1960s, when athletes from a number of African countries freshly liberated from colonial dependence jumped to the front of the world athletic stage? While it may appear that the countries of the Central Asia-Caucasus region are the next sports miracle to come over the horizon, Sydney was not the birth of new sporting giants. Instead, Olympics 2000 was the fading afterglow of the Soviet sports juggernaut.