Analytical Articles

On June 7th, the heads of the five GUUAM states met in the Livadia imperial palace in Yalta, in the very historic hall where the post-World War II “Yalta World Order” was designed. But, unlike that historic meeting, the GUUAM summit delivered a modest document - the Charter of GUUAM, which has not transformed this informal intergovernmental group into an international organization. A widely expected agreement on a free trade zone was not signed; however, bold prospects were floated, which, if realized, would have the potential of creating an emerging  sub-regional entity. 

In dealing with Russia's determination to export CPC oil through the Turkish Straits, claiming the right of 'free passage' under Article 2 of the Montreaux Convention, Turkey could use several trump-cards. By cracking down on environmental pollution and unsafe vessels flying under flags of convenience, Turkey could directly control the flow of traffic through the straits. Turkey could do so by simply following the letter of the law, and could find allies in maritime and environmental circles.

When Afghanistan's ruling Taliban announced that non-Muslims would be required to wear identification to that effect, Western officials and media were quick to condemn the decision. While most criticisms drew parallels to the Nazi persecution of Europe's Jews, the Israeli government did not voice the expected outrage. Israel's clandestine relationship with Afghanistan reaches much deeper, and has far greater implications for the region. Israel's secret intelligence relationship with opposing factions in Afghanistan's lingering civil war serves its multi-tiered national security objectives in the region, including the monitoring of Iran, the containment of Islamic fundamentalism, and the development of strategic partnerships with likeminded states. As a result, Israel will continue to be an active player in Afghanistan, unfortunately perpetuating the conflict.

Kazakhstan President Nazarbaev's appointment on May 31, 2001, as the Chairman of the Inter-state Council of the newly established Eurasian Economic Community (EEC) once again puts Nazarbaev in the forefront of integration efforts in the CIS.  The new EEC represents the most significant Eurasian regional effort to harmonize labor, customs, tax, and trade policies since the disintegration of the USSR.   While previous attempts to establish free trade arrangements among the post-Soviet states have met with limited success, there are prospects that the provisions of the new EEC agreement -harmonizing and coordinating policies among Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan - may go substantially beyond previous measures.

As a result of severe drought, water has become an acute problem in Central Asia. Governments, international agencies and others are trying to find a solution to this problem. The proposal to re-route Siberian river of Ob-Irtish to Central Asia evolved already in 19th century. This proposal was never realized, but recently resurfaced. The question was reportedly brought up during the official visit of the Uzbek President Islam Karimov to Russia in early May. Can Ob-Irtish be the panacea for Central Asia’s water problems? 

Given the demand-driven character of the global trade in illegal drugs, the eradication of opium poppy in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan is bound to lead to an increase in production elsewhere. If the recent history of another major drug-producing area, the Andes region, is of any relevance, a major increase in production is to be expected in neighboring and unstable areas suitable for cultivation: that is to say, the Central Asian republics, especially Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The possible ramifications of such a development are immense. 

BACKGROUND: In his annual report to the Parliament on May 12, President Eduard Shevardnadze devoted substantial space to proposals of constitutional amendments which he submitted to Parliament. The proposed amendments among other provide for the introduction of a Cabinet headed by a Prime Minister, empower the President to dissolve the Parliament and to make forceful alterations to the budget without Parliament's compliance. A few days later Shevardnadze nominated Speaker Zurab Zhvania as his candidate for the premiership.

In the spring of this year, the Nagorno Karabakh peace talks gained an unprecedented momentum towards a peaceful settlement. A deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be a painful compromise for both sides. To secure an environment conducive for its implementation, the international community needs to support political stability in the countries, to provide security guarantees and humanitarian and development aid to the region. The alternative to active international involvement is the increased radicalization of the opposition to the Presidents Aliev and Kocharian, and ensuing destabilization. Alternatively, if the negotiations fail to produce a mutually acceptable compromise, Azerbaijan and Armenia are likely to experience a new phase of military escalation. 

With both Kazakhstan and Russia facing a future of both smaller and sicker populations, it is doubtful whether their militaries, even with restructuring, will ever be ready to counter the growing Islamic militancy in the region.  Currently, only China, with both a large and healthy but ageing population and a need for the relatively inaccessible resources of Central Asia will, in the future, provide crucial manpower-intensive military support.

BACKGROUND:  In October 1998 a tank battalion based in Senaki, in western Georgia, revolted and marched on the capital. Unfortunately, no conclusions were drawn from that event, and no measures were taken to address the problems of the army. A new mutiny against the Government was organized on May 25th last, the day before Georgia’s Independence Day. At dawn, the first division and subdivisions of a Georgian National Guard  battalion – consisting of 500 soldiers in total – of the Ministry of Defense, led by Colonels Otanadze and Krialashvili, seized an Interior Ministry special troops base in Mukhrovani, some 40 kilometers outside Tbilisi. Compared to the most other bases, the base in Mukhrovani was well equipped: it has four T-72 tanks, more then ten armored personnel carriers, artillery pieces, anti tank missiles, and even anti-aircraft “Strellers” (a Russian analogy of American “Stingers”).  In addition, 20 tons of trotyl and ammonal were stored on the base.