Analytical Articles

BACKGROUND: In his annual report to the Parliament on May 12, President Eduard Shevardnadze devoted substantial space to proposals of constitutional amendments which he submitted to Parliament. The proposed amendments among other provide for the introduction of a Cabinet headed by a Prime Minister, empower the President to dissolve the Parliament and to make forceful alterations to the budget without Parliament's compliance. A few days later Shevardnadze nominated Speaker Zurab Zhvania as his candidate for the premiership.

BACKGROUND:  In October 1998 a tank battalion based in Senaki, in western Georgia, revolted and marched on the capital. Unfortunately, no conclusions were drawn from that event, and no measures were taken to address the problems of the army. A new mutiny against the Government was organized on May 25th last, the day before Georgia’s Independence Day. At dawn, the first division and subdivisions of a Georgian National Guard  battalion – consisting of 500 soldiers in total – of the Ministry of Defense, led by Colonels Otanadze and Krialashvili, seized an Interior Ministry special troops base in Mukhrovani, some 40 kilometers outside Tbilisi. Compared to the most other bases, the base in Mukhrovani was well equipped: it has four T-72 tanks, more then ten armored personnel carriers, artillery pieces, anti tank missiles, and even anti-aircraft “Strellers” (a Russian analogy of American “Stingers”).  In addition, 20 tons of trotyl and ammonal were stored on the base. 

BACKGROUND: Today Armenia stands at a major crossroads between a politics based on war and a politics based on peace. Numerous observers have noted that the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, and indeed the constituency that supports the war over that province and its annexation to Armenia, has hijacked Armenian politics. Yet at the same time even presidents who come to power from that constituency and with its support, like the current president, Robert Kocharian, come to see the issue in a different perspective.  Those leaders realize that continued war prevents economic progress, improved relations with the West and any significant gains from the forthcoming silk road and overall integration of the Caucasus with the European economy. An insistence on holding onto Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Armenia plus other territories seized from Azerbaijan also ensures Armenia's militarization, insecurity, and most of all dependence upon Russia.  The recent American initiative to bring the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan together in Key West apparently made real progress and thus opens up possibilities for peace that confront Armenia with the choice of a more diversified security policy based on reconciliation with Turkey, integration with the West, and a less militarized domestic policy or continuing isolation from Turkey and the West, dependence upon an impoverished Russia, and a continuing reliance upon military conquest.

The first visit to Dushanbe by General Tommy Franks, the head of the US Central Command, and a US$430 million pledge by the Consultative Group for Tajikistan spread over two years constitute the first major recognition by the international community of the need to bolster Tajikistan as it faces renewed threats to its stability and a worsening economic crisis. The country is threatened by economic recession, drought, the activities of the IMU on its territory, drug trafficking, and the Afghan war, which threaten to unsettle the fragile peace in the country.

In the spring of this year, the Nagorno Karabakh peace talks gained an unprecedented momentum towards a peaceful settlement. A deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be a painful compromise for both sides. To secure an environment conducive for its implementation, the international community needs to support political stability in the countries, to provide security guarantees and humanitarian and development aid to the region. The alternative to active international involvement is the increased radicalization of the opposition to the Presidents Aliev and Kocharian, and ensuing destabilization. Alternatively, if the negotiations fail to produce a mutually acceptable compromise, Azerbaijan and Armenia are likely to experience a new phase of military escalation. 

With both Kazakhstan and Russia facing a future of both smaller and sicker populations, it is doubtful whether their militaries, even with restructuring, will ever be ready to counter the growing Islamic militancy in the region.  Currently, only China, with both a large and healthy but ageing population and a need for the relatively inaccessible resources of Central Asia will, in the future, provide crucial manpower-intensive military support.

Central Asia is in danger of becoming a permanent war zone.  Numerous reports, ranging from German intelligence to foreign journalistic and internal governmental assessments converge around the point that conflicts, presumably triggered by the IMU, will once again embroil Central Asia.  We can also see the rising likelihood of war in Russia’s and Central Asian states’ publicly announced increases in defense spending and the maneuvers, exercises, and activities of these armed forces, either singly or in various bilateral or multilateral combinations.  Moreover,the multilateral CIS exercises led by Russia are becoming more comprehensive and larger as is Russia’s previous commitment to earmark 50,000 troops for its Southern frontier by 2003.  Should conflict break out soon it would be the third straight year of such conflicts; nor can we discount the possibility of Tajikistan’s frail peace breaking down. Given the extent of domestic unrest throughout Central Asia and of sufficient foreign support to sustain insurgencies,  the danger of long-term war in Central Asia could destabilize it for years to come.

More recently, there has been a clear convergence between the two countries over their policy towards the Taleban regime in Afghanistan. Indeed, Vajpayee signed an important political declaration with the Iranian President Syed Mohammed Khatami that denounced international terrorism ‘in all its forms,’ and the two leaders urged a broad-based government be formed in Afghanistan.  Pakistani Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar responded by telling India it had a right to be concerned about Afghanistan but no business doing anything about it.

Though the military clashes ceased seven years ago, the political battles in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are as high-pitched as ever. Yet, in a way not dreamed of only a few years ago, Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev and Armenian President Robert Kocharian initiated a direct dialogue to move the situation in the conflict out of the deadlock in which it had been since 1994. The April 3-7 OSCE-led peace talks on the conflict in Key West, Florida brought a further narrowing of differences between the positions of the two presidents. Although no major breakthrough has been announced, the negotiating trio of the US, Russian and French mediators remained cautiously optimistic about chances of a peace agreement to be made after Key West.

The Georgian Government’s and people’s constant thinking of territorial wars, energy crises, undistributed wages, etc. has shifted the issue of the country’s future economic priorities back. No economic plan will be workable until the electricity, budget, corruption and similar problems are eliminated, but setting a clear long-term agenda is necessary. While different multi-million transit projects are being implemented, Georgia is not taking care of what, at a glance, looks obvious: developing its tourism potential, which, by reliable estimates, can generate some $1,5 billion by 2005.