Analytical Articles

The turmoil in Tbilisi has thoroughly shaken up Georgia’s political realities. Contrary to previous occasions, Shevardnadze’s manipulations were not enough to secure the needed results. The reformers’ team led by Zurab Zhvania has scored an important success, and limited Shevardnadze’s options for the future. However, Georgia is threatened by a debilitating deadlock.

The death of Juma Namangani, head of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), was the latest sensation in Central Asia. However, reports of renewed IMU penetration into Tajikistan, the tenuous Uzbek hold on the Ferghana valley, and medium- and long-term economic and religious challenges to the stability of Central Asian secular regimes make the death of Namangani only an episode in the struggle for Central Asia's future.

The seizure of Kabul by the Northern Alliance has altered the strategic dynamics of Afghanistan leaving the US-backed coalition in control of 60 percent of the country. However, there has been little discussion of Russian involvement in Afghanistan and its support for the Northern Alliance. Russian President Vladimir Putin has attached high strategic priority to the war, assigning the Chief of the General Staff Victor Kvashnin to oversee Russian military strategy in Afghanistan. These developments underscore a growing determination by Moscow to play a major role in the struggle for power in Afghanistan’s post-war politics by backing the Northern Alliance’s bid for power.

In the late 1990s, and indeed up until 10 September 2001, a joint Sino-Russian hegemony looked like beginning to close over Central Asia, due to only sporadic U.S. diplomatic and military attention to the region. The regional effects of the war in Afghanistan seem likely to shift this balance. Many other elements are also involved. They include the current American military presence in the region, the conclusion of a long- term military agreement with Uzbekistan, the exploration of wider cooperation with Tajikistan and Kazakhstan, and President Vladimir Putin’s instinctive sympathy for Washington after September 11.

Even as bombs rain on Kabul and Kandahar, plans for a post-Taliban government in Afghanistan are advancing on every front.  Some of these plans should be cause for concern. In particular, voices are advocating a federal solution for post-Taliban Afghanistan. While federalism has many virtues in the developed world, it is an inherently problematic non-solution to the reality in Afghanistan. Afghanistan needs a unitary government, but one that accords a substantial role to local initiative.

Turkey’s relations with the Caucasus and Central Asia have been focused on diplomatic, political and economic issues. In particular, attention to energy issues has been prevalent. While pursuing its own interests, Turkey has been careful not to antagonize Russia or Iran. However, in the last few months Turkey’s approach has acquired a dramatically increased military component. The standoff with Iran in the Caspian sea initiated this trend, but has continued with Turkey’s pledge to involve itself in the war in Afghanistan.

The increasing tensions in the India-Pakistan relationship highlights the danger that altered geopolitical configurations will prompt regional players around Afghanistan to embark on adventurist policies. Nowhere is this risk higher than on the frontline in Kashmir, less than a hundred miles from Afghanistan and Central Asia. Given that escalation in this conflict could involve the threat of a nuclear exchange and would likely derail the war in Afghanistan, this issue merits further attention.

The opportunity cost for Russia’s grand strategists of having their military mired in Chechnya has gone up dramatically. Destroying the Chechen resistance could take decades, while in the meantime Russia is articulating plans to close bases in Cuba and Vietnam, and stands to lose influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia. 

Routing the pipeline from Baku to the Turkish Mediterranean coast through Armenia has been excluded from almost all the economic projects for transport of Caspian oil due to the political situation in the Caucasus, though Armenia would be the most cost-effective route. Notwithstanding, all pipelines pass close to Armenia’s borders, implying Armenia’s role in Caucasian security cannot be dissociated from pipeline politics. Armenia’s inclusion in the regional energy architecture is hence long overdue.

Almost all the Central European countries but also Baltic States, Georgia and Mongolia acceded to WTO. In Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan was the 133th country in 1998 to obtain the full-fledged membership but things have remained unchanged so far. Central Asia is lagging behind voluntarily. Having an economy in transition in not a valuable excuse because many countries, which experienced the same chaos, have joined the organization. The internal situation in these states and the WTO perception of Central Asia mainly explain why these countries are not fighting hard to become members of the Geneva-based organization. The accession of a Central Asian country is not to be expected in the near future. Even in the long term, the entry of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan seems rather problematic.