Analytical Articles

The first half of November saw Kazakhstan's most important political crisis since 1997. Several principal cabinet ministers resigned to form a technocratic reform group called Democratic Choice, while President Nursultan Nazarbaev of Kazakhstan removed from office the outspoken prefect of the Pavlodar region Galymzhan Zhakiyanov. This was the outcome of a series of events beginning with the resignation of Nazarbaev's son-in-law Rakhat Aliev from his post as deputy head of the country's National Security Council. Despite Aliev's diminished public profile, the result appears nevertheless to turn to his advantage. 

The first half of November saw Kazakhstan's most important political crisis since 1997. Several principal cabinet ministers resigned to form a technocratic reform group called Democratic Choice, while President Nursultan Nazarbaev of Kazakhstan removed from office the outspoken prefect of the Pavlodar region Galymzhan Zhakiyanov. This was the outcome of a series of events beginning with the resignation of Nazarbaev's son-in-law Rakhat Aliev from his post as deputy head of the country's National Security Council. Despite Aliev's diminished public profile, the result appears nevertheless to turn to his advantage. 

The first half of November saw Kazakhstan's most important political crisis since 1997. Several principal cabinet ministers resigned to form a technocratic reform group called Democratic Choice, while President Nursultan Nazarbaev of Kazakhstan removed from office the outspoken prefect of the Pavlodar region Galymzhan Zhakiyanov. This was the outcome of a series of events beginning with the resignation of Nazarbaev's son-in-law Rakhat Aliev from his post as deputy head of the country's National Security Council. Despite Aliev's diminished public profile, the result appears nevertheless to turn to his advantage. 

The unexpectedly easy access to Kabul by the Northern Alliance and the coalition against terrorism has confirmed the first principle of the 21st century warfare: that it is as good as impossible to vanquish America when it is using its entire arsenal of power. No state is in a position to challenge this ‘hyper-power’. Instead, adversaries attempt to counter this imbalance of power by the use of asymmetric methods. 

The seizure of Kabul by the Northern Alliance has altered the strategic dynamics of Afghanistan leaving the US-backed coalition in control of 60 percent of the country. However, there has been little discussion of Russian involvement in Afghanistan and its support for the Northern Alliance. Russian President Vladimir Putin has attached high strategic priority to the war, assigning the Chief of the General Staff Victor Kvashnin to oversee Russian military strategy in Afghanistan. These developments underscore a growing determination by Moscow to play a major role in the struggle for power in Afghanistan’s post-war politics by backing the Northern Alliance’s bid for power.

In the late 1990s, and indeed up until 10 September 2001, a joint Sino-Russian hegemony looked like beginning to close over Central Asia, due to only sporadic U.S. diplomatic and military attention to the region. The regional effects of the war in Afghanistan seem likely to shift this balance. Many other elements are also involved. They include the current American military presence in the region, the conclusion of a long- term military agreement with Uzbekistan, the exploration of wider cooperation with Tajikistan and Kazakhstan, and President Vladimir Putin’s instinctive sympathy for Washington after September 11.

The turmoil in Tbilisi has thoroughly shaken up Georgia’s political realities. Contrary to previous occasions, Shevardnadze’s manipulations were not enough to secure the needed results. The reformers’ team led by Zurab Zhvania has scored an important success, and limited Shevardnadze’s options for the future. However, Georgia is threatened by a debilitating deadlock.

The death of Juma Namangani, head of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), was the latest sensation in Central Asia. However, reports of renewed IMU penetration into Tajikistan, the tenuous Uzbek hold on the Ferghana valley, and medium- and long-term economic and religious challenges to the stability of Central Asian secular regimes make the death of Namangani only an episode in the struggle for Central Asia's future.

The increasing tensions in the India-Pakistan relationship highlights the danger that altered geopolitical configurations will prompt regional players around Afghanistan to embark on adventurist policies. Nowhere is this risk higher than on the frontline in Kashmir, less than a hundred miles from Afghanistan and Central Asia. Given that escalation in this conflict could involve the threat of a nuclear exchange and would likely derail the war in Afghanistan, this issue merits further attention.

The opportunity cost for Russia’s grand strategists of having their military mired in Chechnya has gone up dramatically. Destroying the Chechen resistance could take decades, while in the meantime Russia is articulating plans to close bases in Cuba and Vietnam, and stands to lose influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia.