Analytical Articles

Vladimir Putin’s proposal for a Eurasian Gas Alliance, unveiled at meetings with the presidents of Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan last week, serves to underscore the continuing strength of Russia’s hand in the Caspian gas sector. Moreover, it could signal the broader direction of future gas pipeline development in Central Eurasia and may even presage imminent resolution of the long-running dispute over the legal status of the Caspian Sea. The critical element in Moscow’s calculations is the eroding authority and effectiveness of their chief market rival’s ruler, Turkmenistan’s president-for-life Saparmurad Niyazov.

Many observers have hailed Russian Presidential spokesman Sergei Yastrzhembsky's announcement that Turkey has requested an extradition file for Chechen propagandist Movladi Udugov as signifying both a serious blow to the Chechen resistance and a watershed in Turkish-Russian relations.  This assessment grossly overestimates Turkish support for the Chechen cause - and conversely the Chechens' dependence on it - as well as the salience of Chechnya in dealings between Ankara and Moscow. If made, the request will have no fundamental impact either on the course of the war in Chechnya or on Turkish-Russian relations.

To survive in cold wintertime, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have to increase the use of electric power generated by hydropower stations. As a result, in the spring and summer reservoirs do not deliver adequate amounts of water for irrigation in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. The Central Asian countries need to take steps towards a common model for the use of water and energy resources and negotiate compensation to upstream countries for water management, in order to begin using water and energy in a rational way.

Competition among strong warlords threatens the success of the interim government in Afghanistan and poses a major problem for delivery of relief and reconstruction assistance there. Neither the interim government nor the international peacekeeping force is likely to have the strength to deal with the most powerful warlords.  In offering individual warlords incentives to cooperate, the interim government and international community will have to consider what kind of profit, power and prestige are available to the warlord in if he does not cooperate.  While the warlords will have to be accommodated in the short term, in the longer term it will be important that they not be strengthened and, if possible, sidelined.

Russian President Putin's ambition to form an equal partnership with NATO and the US stands in stark contrast to its behavior in its southern borders. Its behavior in relation to Georgia is an example that Moscow's imperial ambitions are not part of the past. Consistent use of economic warfare and recent bombings of Georgian territory show Russia's interest in preventing Georgia from slipping from Russian control. There is reason to doubt that a partnership between Russia and the West could function unless Russia starts abiding by the standards of conduct of its European counterparts.

The Pentagon may be scaling down its pursuit of Osama bin Laden after the defeat of the Taliban, but the U.S. military build-up in Central Asia is relentlessly accelerating. Interestingly, the leaders of the Central Asian republics seem to be falling over each other in their eagerness to accommodate Western forces. The Central Asian regimes have both common and different motives for encouraging US deployments. However, the cumulative effect of a long-term Western military presence in the region may be to engender deep insecurities in Russia and China whilst simultaneously placing security obligations on the West that it has little inclination or ability to discharge.

The transformation of the Central Asian Economic Commonwealth into the Central Asian Cooperation (CAC) comes as regional cooperation is desperately needed in the broad array of issues, from national security to environmental protection. However, past performance, petty rivalries, and the lack of economic and trade expertise make the prognosis cautious for the newly created body at best. Lacking adequate budget and trained staff, the new organization may face a mountain of mandates and lack of resources – a well-known prescription for failure.  

In a December Financial Times interview, Vladimir Putin stated that the 1996 Khasavyurt agreement granted Chechnya de facto and probably also de jure independence. Putin claims that the war in Chechnya can hence not be termed a struggle for independence. Meanwhile, Moscow denies that official negotiations are taking place, although representatives of both sides are meeting regularly. And recently a Federal Law on the on ‘the Procedure of Acceptance and Formation of new Federal Subjects to the Russian Federation’ was adopted.  Is Moscow trying to cut a deal with the separatists, trying to achieve a ‘voluntary’ accession of Chechnya to the Russian Federation? 

By their respective attacks on the United States and the Northern Alliance in September, 2001, Al Qaeda and the Taliban hoped to oust their enemies from the Arab world and Afghanistan.  Instead, paradoxically, they are in defeat and on the run, the Northern Alliance rules Afghanistan, and most importantly America has expanded and deepened its presence in the Muslim world. Nowhere is this new presence more visible than in Uzbekistan.

The lightning deployment of a ‘limited contingent’ of Russian troops to Kabul in late November 2001 has served as a reminder that Moscow’s tactical aims and strategic goals in the Caspian area are to be taken seriously. While the troops belong to the Ministry of Emergencies (MChS) and their mission is presented as purely humanitarian – setting up a field hospital which doubles as the embassy – it betrayed a desire to jump right into the middle of the arena, ahead of US Rangers and Marines stuck with hard work at Kunduz and Kandahar. A key difference from the Russian paratroopers ‘march on Prishtina’ in June 1999 is that the Northern Alliance had arrived to Kabul a few days prior, to some surprise in Washington and to much satisfaction in Moscow.