Analytical Articles

The recent decision of the United States government to provide special assistance and training to the Georgian military forces, create a unique chance for Georgia to strengthen its internal stability. The implications of this assistance in the area of security is obvious, but there may be an even broader positive impact on general development in Georgia, for establishing a rule of law and clearing the way for economic growth and development.

Small and medium enterprise (SME) development offers the key to economic growth and employment opportunities in Uzbekistan. In recent years the Government of Uzbekistan has been vocal in its support for SME development, and it has taken several steps to establish a solid legislative framework for SMEs. Through their support of various SME projects, many international organizations and Tashkent-based foreign embassies have also supported SME development. Serious obstacles, however, still impede the development of SMEs. These obstacles include the need to expand the knowledge of entrepreneurs in areas such as accounting, financial analysis, and marketing, and the need to simplify procedures for obtaining credit.

Most recent analysis of the preliminary numbers from the first post-independence census in Armenia has focused on the evidence of population decline. From a domestic political standpoint however, the fact that Armenia will continue to have an official population over 3 million is an important psychological boost. Though truth about Armenia's population remains murky, the census is the latest development in the continuing series of events improving the political fortunes of President Robert Kocharyan.

Recent reports indicate that Greece will sign an agreement for a pipeline from Turkey that will transport Iranian natural gas to southern Europe. The route would extend an existing pipeline between Tabriz and Ankara to Komotini in Thrace. Greece already receives 3 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from Russia, a figure that President Vladimir Putin has pledged to double. However, even that would leave Greece with a projected deficit of 1.5 billion cubic meters in the future, and talks are under way to build a pipeline from Greece to Italy, further increasing potential volumes. These reports also mark progress in the continuing improvement of bilateral Greek-Turkish relations.

Russia claims to be the most crucial supporter of America’s war on terrorism. Indeed, Russia has shared significant intelligence and given other types of support to the war. But Russia’s definition of terrorism and its methods to deal with it are very different from western norms. Where the U.S. has launched a massive humanitarian campaign in Afghanistan, Russia’s approach is purely military, as shown by its war in Chechnya. And whereas Russia defines separatism as terrorism, it has long been one of the main champions of separatism in small states in the CIS. Building an enduring and true partnership with Russia under these conditions is problematic.

The antiterrorism campaign in Afghanistan enjoys unprecedented international support. President Putin actively backed the U.S. efforts to destroy the Taliban regime  which was regarded by Moscow as one of the sources feeding the Chechen rebellion. Though Afghanistan did considerable damage to U.S.-Soviet relations in the 1980s, the U.S. and Russia joined forces 20 years later for the first time after WWII. However, after the Taliban were removed and the new Afghan government established, the U.S.-Russian team spirit has gradually faded. Today the partnership which raised many hopes for the future looks increasingly vulnerable.

The arrival of U.S. special troops to Georgia has been on the headlines of international media for over a week, announcing the expansion of the anti-terrorism war to the Pankisi Gorge, where Al Qaeda and Chechen fighters are said to be hiding. While both Georgia and the U.S. insist that it is a part of a regular program, the decision follows the U.S. deployment of troops to Central Asia, for which Georgia remains a gateway. After almost a decade of serious engagement with Georgia and millions of dollars in financial aid, is the U.S. concluding the process of military expansion to the former Soviet Empire? 

The recent reaction of the Russian government to President Bush's State of the Union address in which he refereed to Iran, Iraq and North Korea as an "axis of evil" and implied a military action against them was, among other issues, an indicative of the state of relations between Russia and Iran. It also indicated Russia’s concern about the United States long-term objectives its neighborhood. By describing the threat as a sign of American expansionism, Russia demonstrated its feelings about the long-term American military presence in Central Asia and Afghanistan, a concern also shared by Iran.

Though Iran claims to support the war on terrorism, a closer look at Tehran’s policies in the past six months show a trend to increased use of coercive diplomacy and support for terrorist groups. This trend predates September 11th, but has not been affected by Iran’s self-proclaimed participation in the war on terrorism. Iran has adopted an aggressive posture in the Caspian, has extended support for Palestinian terrorists, and has played a less than positive role in the Afghan settlement. In a precarious internal situation, Iran remains a risk factor in regional politics.

Kyrgyzstan recently agreed to grant the United States access to an airbase near Bishkek in order to facilitate anti-terrorist operations. The agreement follows the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s declaration several months ago to establish an anti-terrorist center in Bishkek that would have hosted a joint Sino-Russian military force. The Bishkek base agreement is only one of a number that Washington has reached with Central Asian governments. The U.S. insists that it does not seek long-term facilities in Central Asia, but its military cooperation with countries in the region effectively blocks the consolidation of the Sino-Russian condominium over Central Asia that was well under way until September 2001.