Analytical Articles

The fragile balance in the southern, predominantly Pashtun areas of Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban has recently been rocked by conflicts of authority between regional warlords and the interim government in Kabul. The main problem so far has centered on the three province of Paktia, Paktika and Khost, which form the historic greater Paktia province. As has been widely reported in the press, local strongman Bacha Khan Zardan refused to accept the authority of a governor appointed by the interim government and has clashed with the governor\'s forces. What is less well understood is the roots and the depth of resentment in the Pashtun areas of Southern Afghanistan and Northwestern Pakistan, and the dire implications of this problem if left unchecked.

Political tensions in Kazakhstan have been escalating since last November when several senior officials were sacked for joining a new political movement, the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DCK).  The DCK originally founded as a reform party to represent the interests of the country’s entrepreneurial class, has become increasingly radicalized, a process culminating in the arrest of one party co-founder and the placement of another under the house arrest. In the midst of these political tensions the government issued a response to allegations of President Nazarbayev’s embezzlement of government funds to his and his family accounts. 

The last month’s sad Aksy events in Kyrgyzstan came as a culmination of a continued series of popular protests against government persecution of political opposition and critics. Since the lethal incident, the police shootings and the killing of protesters have tended to be overshadowed by a preoccupation to come up with various explanations of the protest, such as the miseries of life and the north-south divisions. The long protests of political persecutions culminating in Aksy – the root cause of the events – thus have appeared gradually to be fading into obscurity. Will this grievance remain overlooked and muted even after Aksy, or will this be a turning point?

Georgia has been so anxiously awaiting the arrival of US troops as if they are a miraculous solution to all the country’s problems. Russia, after a hysterical initial reaction, now tries to present this deployment as a part of cooperation with the US in the global war against terrorism and as a direct support from the US to its war against Chechnya. Washington, apparently, assumes that this small-scale ‘train-and-equip’ operation could positively contribute to the larger goal of stabilizing the Caucasus. The risks, however, might turn out to be way beyond local disturbances.

President Putin’s recent State of the Federation address clearly indicates that Russia puts increased emphasis on the CIS in its foreign policy. Moreover, it indicates an understanding that security and economic imperatives dictate that countries in the region pursue pluralistic and “multi-polar” policies. Moscow will emphasize its military ties, security cooperation, infrastructure projects, and cultural and educational cooperation to boost its influence in the region. Yet the military may not be satisfied with the official line, and the FSB is for the first time officially working outside Russia’s borders.

Recently much attention has focused on the rising U.S. military presence in Central Asia and Georgia. This presence has been seen as signifying not just America’s determination to smash terrorism that originated in and around Afghanistan, but also an intention to establish a lasting multi-dimensional U.S. presence in Central Asia and the Caucasus.  However, less well publicized is the fact that the U.S. government and military are now directly assisting Azerbaijan to enhance its naval capacity to secure its maritime borders.  This move is not only linked to the two goals stated above, but also signifies the first time that Washington has directly confronted Iran with the possibility of military support for Azerbaijan against Tehran’s continuing threats.  This move also highlights the deterioration of maritime security within the Caspian Sea and its accompanying militarization.

The recent statements of Hamid Karzai and his talks with Turkmen authorities regarding the construction of a gas pipeline connecting Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan have created security concerns in West Asia. The reemerging interests in the abandoned pipeline plan has worried rival regional countries as its realization will boast the regional and international status of Pakistan, beyond its economic benefits for Pakistanis. If constructed, this pipeline would intensify the ongoing regional rivalry and hostility between long-time rivals India and Pakistan, while having significant implications for political and security developments in West Asia. 

22 years since its beginning, the HIV/AIDS epidemic has reached the remote states of Central Asia, with explosive rates of growth at that. The already high prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases, alarming drug addiction rates, widespread unemployment, and the mainly young population and low awareness all make the Central Asian states particularly vulnerable to a large scale epidemic. The Central Asian states' largely unreformed and under-funded health systems are too weak and too slow to react to the growing epidemic. The governments and international community must commit themselves to long-term multi-sectoral regional strategy in order to reverse the trend.

President Askar Akayev of Kyrgyzstan announced that the population of his republic would pass the 5 million mark in early 2002, up from 4.5 million in 1990. While not the highest growth rate compared to many developing countries, it creates a big problem for the Kyrgyzstani government. The population has been growing against a backdrop of a failing economy, decreasing job opportunities and deteriorating environment. If the economic, social and educational needs of the rapidly growing population are not effectively addressed soon, the government may face political upheaval. 

The Bush Administration has allowed the North Caucasus broadcasts of Radio Liberty-Radio Free Europe to go ahead on April 3. These 15-minute broadcasts from Prague will include programming in Chechen, to which the Russian government strongly objects. The Bush Administration's decision to take action may be interpreted as support for the Chechens, and may complicate its relationship with Putin at the time the U.S. troops are poised to take on terrorist elements in the Pankisi Gorge. However, the reasons for this action may be distant from the Caucasus and have roots in domestic policy and electoral politics.