Analytical Articles

In a lengthy newspaper piece published in early October, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin unexpectedly called on the former Soviet republics to join Moscow and create a Eurasian Union. Russia is already consolidating its recently formed Customs Union with Belarus and Kazakhstan. Now the intent seems to be to expand the number of its members as well as to enlarge its functions and powers into something like the European Union. But major obstacles stand in the way of Putin’s project, and the prospects of a new Eurasian Union emerging anytime soon in the former Soviet Union are small.

Kazakh law enforcement recently claimed to have broken up a “terror group” in a Kazakh town. While jihadist terrorism has been a part of the Central Asian political landscape for a long time, these events deserve special attention. This is not only because several similar events have recently taken place in Kazakhstan, but also due to the country’s special conditions where jihadism has previously been a most marginal occurrence. The emergence of jihadism in Kazakhstan therefore indicates that the ideology has begun to spread in areas of the former USSR where it has not previously been present.

Boris Yeltsin, president of Russia from 1991 to 1999, famously urged the various ethno-jurisdictions in the Russian Federation to “take all the sovereignty you can swallow.” At the time, the political leadership in Chechnya took this exhortation literally, an interpretation that contributed to the outbreak of war between the secessionist regime in Grozny and the Russian state in 1994. Since 1999, Vladimir Putin has replaced Yeltsin’s controversial sovereignty mantra with one that might be articulated as follows: “take all the subsidies you can swallow.” The extent of the Russian government’s continued subsidization of the North Caucasus has become a matter of serious political debate in recent months.  

The introduction of additional legal restrictions on “family hire” in public service and the recent warnings by senior officials against nepotistic practices in government indicate that the Tajik authorities recognize the political risks stemming from nepotism. This recognition appears to be linked with the political upheavals in Kyrgyzstan and, more recently, the Arab world. However, a genuine anti-nepotism agenda of the Tajik government is unlikely because President Rahmon himself has virtually monopolized political and economic power in the hands of his family. Therefore, the government’s declared anti-nepotism crusade appears to be designed for public consumption.

The unresolved conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has once again raised its head. This is not surprising because the failure of Moscow’s attempt to broker a solution earlier this year appears to have conformed to a dynamic common to such conflict. Failed efforts at mediation lead to renewed tensions as each side blames the other and the spiral of recriminations continues until wiser heads or some other crisis prevails. New developments are contributing to an upsurge of tensions. Bako Sahakyan, president of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic told an interviewer that he wants an active role in any future negotiation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Naturally that would be a cause for breaking up any negotiation from Azerbaijan’s standpoint. 

The presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan on October 30 marked the first peaceful and voluntary handover of power from one leader to another in the history of post-Soviet Central Asia. Despite some shortcomings reported by external observers, the elections took place in an environment of freedom and impartiality. Kyrgyzstan’s task now is to sustain its development towards consolidated democratic practices. The president-elect, Almazbek Atambayev, has promised that from now on Kyrgyzstan will not see another revolution. However, he faces serious challenges. 

The Viking Railroad, connecting Lithuania with Ukraine via Belarus, is not among the most well-publicized transportation projects in the former Soviet Union but it is emerging as one of the most important. Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan have recently announced their willingness to partake and volumes are steadily expanding. The potential gains are also significant. Not only will participating governments capture sizeable transit revenues but old animosities, notably between Belarus and Lithuania, are being addressed as part of it. Russia, too, benefits as competition will revitalize its own railroads. The Viking Railroad’s commercial viability is proven but endemic corruption in states beyond may derail further extensions and erase the slim margins to sea-borne trade.

Negotiations between Armenia’s government and the main opposition force, the Armenian National Congress, have come to a halt. After a week of day-and-night rallies, demanding the immediate resignation of the incumbent president and snap elections, the opposition eventually announced that it was getting ready for the regular parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2012. These developments were taking place against the background of an apparent rift within the government camp, caused by rumors about the possible return of Armenia’s second president Robert Kocharyan into active politics.