IS RUSSIA PREPARING TO SOLVE THE CASPIAN SEA PROBLEM BY FORCE?

The first summit
of the five Caspian sea countries on April 24 in Ashgabat finished in failure, when the
leaders of Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Russia failed to sign a joint
declaration. The very day after the summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to
hold large-scale exercises in the Caspian Sea. The timing of the decision was probably not
a coincidence. The decisions was made on April 25 during a visit to Astrakhan,
Russia’s main naval base in the Caspian.

Mr. Putin charged
Navy Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Kuroedov with planning and holding naval exercises of the
Caspian Fleet this coming summer, engaging all forces – the frontier troops, Air
Force and anti-aircraft defenses, subdivisions of North Caucasus military district.

Russian
military leaders have officially announced that the main aim of these exercises is the
struggle against terrorism. Military operations In nearby Afghanistan are not over;
besides, drugs trade is a problem throughout the region, and according to President Putin,
‘drug trafficking by water is one of the problems, Russia is facing today’ It is
noteworthy that the Russian President proposed to invite representatives of all Caspian
sea countries to participate in these exercises.

But
the news about these exercises led to increased tension in the region. Azerbaijan was the
first country to respond to the
announcement. President Heydar Aliyev stated that ‘there is nothing unordinary in
holding navy exercises’. According to Aliyev, Putin informed him at the Ashgabat
meeting about plans to hold exercises in the Caspian Sea and invited Azerbaijan to take
part in it, and this invitation was accepted.

That does not mean
that Azerbaijan supports the militarization of the Caspian: the President earlier stated
that Azerbaijan sticks to the principle of the ‘entire demilitarization of the
Caspian sea and using its water only for peaceful aims’. Iran also spoke
categorically against military exercises. Iranian President Mohammed Khatami warned of the
possibility of a new crisis in the region. On April 29, Khatami, speaking in Bishkek,
noted that Iran thinks ‘it is necessary to reject an arms race, and instead announce
the region as a demilitarized zone’.

In an interview to
Iranian television, Prof. Usef Mulaee of Teheran University asked ‘How necessary are
Russian military exercises in the Caspian Sea? It is unclear which non-regional states
create a threat to the security of Caspian countries, in particular to Russia, and against
what threat the exercises are directed’. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have yet to take
a stand on the issue. Moscow’s ambassadors to Baku and Teheran, Nikolay Ryabov and
Alexandr Maryasov, hurried to refute fears regarding the forthcoming military exercises.

In an interview,
Ryabov argued the inadmissibility of solving issues in the Caspian Sea ‘under
pressure, by using force, or the threat of use of force, establishing any coalitions or
joining them hoping to get unilateral military advantage.’ Maryasov, for his part,
stated that he considers the fears that the exercises are a threat to stability in the
Caspian: “Russia categorically opposes the presence of outside military forces in the
Caspian Sea, considering it an element of destabilization in the sea”.

In the opinion of
independent experts, several reasons to hold such maneuvers exist. The first is connected
with the fact that Russia, due to its problems in Chechnya as well as in the North
Caucasus as a whole, wants to strengthen its military position in the region. Second,
taking into account U.S.-Azerbaijani military cooperation, these maneuvers may be a way
for Russia to demonstrate its ability to balance a U.S. presence there. Russia apparently
wants to show that it is still the leading power in the Caspian Sea, and thereby warn
non-Caspian countries, especially the U.S., from involvement in the region.

The militarization
of the Caspian sea is likely to increase regional tensions. Negotiations aimed at the
peaceful resolution of the Caspian sea issue by diplomatic means, moreover, are unlikely
to succeed if an arms race causing suspicion and distrust among regional countries
emerges. In addition, that would cause significant financial expenses for military needs
that the states are not in a position to pay.

In the final
analysis, Russia’s decision to hold large-scale exercises in the Caspian Sea proved
once again that Moscow does not exclude the us of military force in this region.

Gulnara Ismailova,
a freelance journalist based in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Copyright 2001 The Analyst.

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