ARMENIA PLEDGES TO HOLD TRULY DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Eight candidates are nominated to run in Armenia’s presidential elections scheduled for February 18, in which the incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan seeks re-election for a second five-year term. However, despite the abundance of nominees, no close struggle is expected and Sargsyan is in a good position to be reelected with relative ease. The official election campaign started on January 21 but a number of candidates began their public addresses ahead of this date. Others who had their candidate registrations rejected have declared that their rights have been violated and that they will pursue these by judicial means.
BACKGROUND: The most serious competition to Sargsyan was removed on December 12 when Gagik Tsarukian, leader of the Prosperous Armenia Party (PA) and regarded as the only potential candidate capable of mounting a real challenge to Sargsyan, announced that he would not run for the presidency. Tsarukian is vastly popular in Armenia, not least due to his habit of using his considerable personal wealth for various charity actions, such as donating tractors to farmers or sending high-quality Yerevan physicians to rural areas. Armenia’s first President (1991-1998) Levon Ter-Petrosian has also declared he will not run in 2013. Ter-Petrosian was the main challenger to Sargsyan in the 2008 presidential elections where he ended in second place after receiving more than 22 percent of the votes according to official data.
Fifteen persons have presented their documents to the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) to be nominated as presidential candidates. However, eight of these, including Armenia’s first ever female presidential candidate, failed to pay the electoral deposit amounting to 8 million Armenian drams (roughly US$ 19,800). Several of the prospective candidates said they could not afford the deposit, and that the CEC was hence violating their rights. For this reason, the CEC unprecedentedly declared on January 8 that it would extend the payment deadline by 48 hours.
The remaining six competitors are believed to be relatively weak candidates and present no threat to the re-election of the incumbent President. Only two of these are previously known in Armenian politics. Raffi Hovannisian became the first Foreign Minister of independent Armenia in 1992 and is the leader and founder of Heritage party, and a former deputy of the National Assembly. Hrant Bagratian is the leader of the liberal Liberty party and was Deputy Prime Minister in 1990-1993 and Prime Minister in 1993-1996. He is now a member of the National Assembly. Bagratian is considered to be responsible for most of the widely lauded liberal reforms of the early 1990s (e.g., land and apartment privatization) signifying Armenia’s break with the Soviet heritage.
Former Soviet dissident Paruyr Hayrikian has also entered the race, although his perspectives are not considered to be promising. The remaining candidates are not regarded as serious ones. One example is Vardan Sedrakian, who pledges to establish justice in the country according to the principles of the Armenian epos Sasna Tsrer (Daredevils of Sasun).
IMPLICATIONS: Armenia’s 2013 presidential race is unusual in the abundance of registered candidates, but the results seem given already from the outset. Sargsyan will in all likelihood be reelected on February 18, probably in the first round. This will enable his administration to continue the reforms it has initiated over five more years. While these reforms are far reaching and affect most sectors of society, they nevertheless enjoy limited popularity among the Armenian public, which wants immediate improvement of living standards.
Tsarukian has presented no explanation for his decision not to run in these elections. The PA, which has a reputation for being pro-Russian, even sent a delegation led by Tsarukian to Brussels, seemingly indicating Tsarukian’s intention to run. Tsarukian’s behavior can be taken to indicate that he does not object in principle to the current government’s policies and stands to gain more from cooperating with it rather than opposing it. In addition, Tsarukian likely views his party as the successor to Sargsyan’s Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) after the next elections in 2018, when Sargsyan will not be entitled for nomination. While this does not necessarily mean that Tsarukian views himself as the country’s next president, the assumption is substantiated by the fact that the PA refuses to term itself “opposition,” instead preferring the unique term “alternative party.” Rumors have circulated that Tsarukian was threatened, for example by the prospect of opening a criminal case against him similar to that against former Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian who is now a PA member, but no evidence has been presented to substantiate these allegations.
Ter-Petrosian cited his high age, 68, as a reason not to run in the elections. This seems unconvincing, however, and a more likely explanation is his dwindling popularity since 2008 as shown, in particular, by a Gallup International poll in December. This means that his political organization Armenian National Congress is either dead or needs another leader.The parties presenting themselves as opposition, including four factions in the National Assembly, failed to nominate a common candidate capable of competing with Sargsyan and local analysts argue that the opposition has done everything to help his victory. Sargsyan will hence face few obstacles to reelection on February 18. Sargsyan is backed by the large RPA, which controls 71 seats in 131-member parliament and at least 60 percent of Armenia’s local municipalities.
In addition, three smaller parties and the organization of Karabakh war veterans, Yerkrapah, said they would support his candidacy. This means that the PA party will not honor the provisions of a memorandum signed in February 2011, where it pledged to support Sargsyan in the next presidential elections. In contrast, most other parties decided not to nominate their members for presidency and only two candidates, Hovannisian and Bagratian, enjoy the support of a political party during the elections.
As Sargsyan’s victory seems guaranteed – according to polls conducted in December he could win 60 to 70 percent of the votes in the first round – his promise to hold Armenia’s best ever elections on February 18 seems realistic. Armenia’s ability to hold truly democratic presidential elections, which has not been demonstrated in previous ballots, is an important precondition for the credibility of the country’s European orientation. This time, there will be no need for violations, which according to critics have been a clear factor in securing previous election victories for RPA candidates. In these elections, Armenian authorities will have a unique opportunity to demonstrate its commitment to improving election conduct. In particular, the CEC’s decision to extend the deadline for registration fees is presented as an effort by the authorities to simplify the process. One candidate was added during this period, increasing the number of hopefuls to eight, while the remaining seven were not registered. Some of them, including Narine Mkrtchian, claim that the requirement of an electoral deposit is a violation of their rights and say they will bring the issue to court. Otherwise, media and local observers have presented no reports of discrimination against any registered candidate.
CONCLUSIONS: If nothing extraordinary happens, the Armenian authorities face a unique opportunity in the February 18 presidential elections, as the opposition has failed to nominate a joint candidate. Tsarukian and Ter-Petrosian, both the potential competitors to Sargsyan, have refrained from running for president at this time. In addition, the main political parties outside government, including those in parliament, have decided not to present candidates for the presidency and to refrain from supporting any candidate. This will allow Sargsyan to be re-elected in a competitive and clean electoral process. In turn, this will enable him to continue reforming the country for another five years, possibly with the same team headed by the Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan.
AUTHOR’S BIO: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a political and economic analyst based in Yerevan, Armenia. He is the author of: “Karabakh Conflict. Variants of Settlement: Concepts and Reality” (co-authored with Ali Abasov), 2006.
