COULD ETIM DERAIL PAKISTAN-CHINA RELATIONS?
The East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) was responsible for a series of bomb blasts and knife attacks in Hotan, Xinjiang last year in which reportedly more than 20 people were killed and many more were injured. Chinese officials pointed out that these militants were trained in the Pakistani tribal areas and hence for the first time publicly blamed Pakistan for the troubles in its Xinjiang province, in a state media broadcast during an official visit of Pakistan’s then Inter-Services Intelligence chief. Islamabad and Beijing are already cooperating closely on anti-terrorism issues but if not addressed properly, this issue can become a major irritant between the two countries.
BACKGROUND: The friendship between Pakistan and China is described by the leadership of both countries as higher than mountains, deeper than the oceans, and of late, sweeter than honey. Pakistan and China celebrated 2011 as a year of friendship to mark 60 years of diplomatic relations. Relations between the two countries were established in 1950 when Pakistan decided to recognize the People’s Republic and after a few minor feuds and misperceptions, relations strengthened considerably by the early 1960s.
The relationship has been mutually beneficial from the beginning: China ended Pakistan’s search for a balancer in its relations with India and provides Pakistan with economic, military and technical aid and assistance. Pakistan on its part supports China on issues such as Tibet, Xinjiang, human rights, etc. Pakistan played a pivotal role in bringing the U.S. and China together and arranged a secret visit of Henry Kissinger to prepare for President Nixon’s visit to China. Pakistan also supported and assisted China in establishing contacts with the Muslim world.
Pakistan and China are collaborating in a number of sectors; especially defense, trade and developmental and energy sector. Since the 1960s, China has been the most important supplier of military goods to Pakistan. The JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft is the hallmark of this defense cooperation. In addition, the two countries have collaborated in establishing munitions factories and China has provided technical assistance in improving and modernizing Pakistan’s existing facilities. They have also cooperated in the nuclear energy sector and have organized joint military exercises and officers from both countries attend courses at military institutions.
Trade between Pakistan and China is increasing at a rapid pace and a free trade agreement has been signed. China has also stated that it will increase its investments in Pakistan and is currently investing in various projects related to development of infrastructure such as power plants, roads, gold and copper mines, electricity and power and nuclear plants. From 2007 to 2010, the Chinese investment was expected to increase from US$ 4 billion to US$ 15 billion. The most important joint project is the deep sea port of Gwadar.
However, four issues will be decisive in shaping the changing outlook of Pakistan-China relations: terrorism, the security of Chinese personnel working in Pakistan, people to people contacts, and India. Of these four, the issue of terrorism is the most problematic.
IMPLICATIONS: Xinjiang borders Pakistan and Afghanistan, and is of immense strategic importance for China for a number of reasons. Populated by Turkic-speaking and Muslim ethnic Uyghurs which constitute almost 40 percent of the area’s total population, Xinjiang is also home to a number of militant groups or factions struggling for independence from China. According to Beijing, a number of players are involved in the region and the religious extremists there are supported by several transnational terrorist networks, prime amongst them Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HT).
The most effective of the groups active in the area is the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM). ETIM was founded in 1997 and its stated aim is to liberate Xinjiang from China and restore its past glory by installing an Islamic caliphate there. There is strong evidence that ETIM is linked with other groups in the region, especially Al Qaeda. Its members are active in other countries such as Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. According to various media reports, ETIM’s leader Abdul Shakoor Turkistani was one of the contenders to succeed Osama bin Laden after he was killed in the May 2011 U.S. operation.
Two factions exist within the ETIM: one wants to concentrate solely on its struggle for independence from China, while the other wants to participate in and support the globalized jihadist network. ETIM is reported to have secured sanctuaries in the lawless areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan’s tribal areas. Xinjiang governor Nur Bekri stated in an interview: “We have certainly discovered that East Turkistan Islamic Movement activists and terrorists in our neighboring states have a thousand and one links.” In an official statement, the Chinese Ministry of Public Security issued a list of six terrorists including their profiles. The statement claimed that these terrorists were operating from a South Asian country and that one of them, the known ETIM commander Nurmemet Memetmin, was arrested and sentenced to 10 years in prison in a South Asian country but managed to escape in 2006.
This practice of avoiding direct mention of Pakistan changed after the attacks on July 18, 2011, in Hotan, Xinjiang, involving a series of bomb blasts and knife attacks. Chinese officials pointed out that these militants were trained in the Pakistani tribal areas. The state run Xinhua news agency reported that the terrorist behind the attacks received training in camps located in the tribal areas of Pakistan. The timing of this report is important because the then director general of the Inter-Services Intelligence, General Ahmed Shujja Pasha was in China on an official visit at the time.
Another piece of evidence of ETIM’s Pakistani connections is the martyrdom video of Memtieli Tiliwaldi who was killed by Chinese security forces, training in what was claimed to be the tribal areas of Pakistan. During his recent visit to Islamabad, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi asked the Pakistani government to take action against ethnic Uygur Islamic militants present in its lawless tribal areas.
CONCLUSIONS: A positive sign for Pakistan-China relations is that China and Pakistan are actively cooperating on terrorism and have an institutionalized antiterrorism dialogue and intelligence sharing mechanism. On August 6, 2004, China and Pakistan conducted their first joint antiterrorism military exercise named Friendship 2004 in Xinjiang. In a military operation near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in December 2003, the Pakistani Army killed the ETIM’s leader Hasan Mahsum and arrested quite a few members of the organization which were extradited to China.
Yet, despite these joint efforts and the fact that ETIM has been weakened in recent months – a number of its cadre have been killed in drone attacks and arrested or killed by Pakistani forces – it continues to be active and operational in the Xinjiang area. The relationship to China is of paramount importance for Islamabad and it hence needs to pay more attention to Beijing’s sensitivity to the ETIM problem. While the ETIM has so far not been able to impact the bilateral relations negatively, the organization certainly has the potential to do so.
AUTHOR’S BIO: Rizwan Zeb is based at the Centre for Muslim States and Societies, University of Western Australia. He has formerly been a Benjamin Meaker professor of Politics, IAS, University of Bristol and a visiting Scholar at the Brookings Institution.
