RUSSIA EXTENDS MILITARY PRESENCE IN TAJIKISTAN TO 2042
During a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Tajikistan on October 5, 2012, Dushanbe and Moscow signed a treaty extending the presence of the Russian military bases in Tajikistan until 2042. Despite the long negotiation process, which was commenced in September 2011, and a number of statements made by senior officials in Tajikistan’s government, Dushanbe failed to extract payments for the use of facilities and its territory for the Russian military bases, owing to its reliance on Moscow for remittances sent by Tajik migrants in Russia and fuel imports.
The Russian military presence in Tajikistan reportedly accounts for Russia’s second-largest military contingent outside its own territory, after the 13,000-strong Black Sea Fleet in the Ukrainian city of Sevastopol. The Russian military bases in Tajikistan were officially opened in 2004 and house up to 7,000 military servicemen. According to the existing agreement, the present terms for the bases’ deployment in Tajikistan expire in 2014. Under the current 10-year lease agreement signed in 2004, Russia enjoys exclusive use of three military bases and joint use of an air base free of charge.
Within the framework of the visit, Vladimir Putin and his Tajik counterpart Emomali Rahmon signed six documents related to several fields of cooperation between two countries. The major document signed was an agreement about the status and conditions of Russian military bases in Tajikistan. As mentioned by Putin’s assistant Yuriy Ushakov, according to the agreement, Russia will retain its military bases in Tajikistan until 2042 “almost for nothing.”
In addition, Dushanbe and Moscow signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in the military field. According the memorandum, Russia takes responsibility for the modernization of Tajikistan’s military forces, and will provide modern armaments and support in the training of Tajik military personnel. However, the memorandum does not specify the terms for the Tajik army’s modernization, including the amounts to be spent and the timeframe.
Another agreement concerned Russian support for the Tajik Drug Control Agency, according to which Russia will provide US$ 5 million for the development of the Agency. Dushanbe and Moscow also agreed on the conditions for Tajikistan’s import of petroleum products from Russia. Tajikistan’s President commented that the sides agreed on the customs free export of Russian oil products to Tajikistan for domestic use.
The fifth memorandum concerned bilateral cooperation in the energy sector, where Russia intends to participate in the construction of medium size hydropower stations in Tajikistan, however, no details are provided on the conditions under which this is to take place.
Finally, Dushanbe and Moscow signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in the migration sector, where Russia undertakes to simplify certain conditions for Tajik labor migrants working in Russia. For instance, the term of work permits for Tajik labor migrants will increase from one year to three years.
Tajik politicians and experts have contrary opinions regarding the agreements reached with Russia and their impact on Tajikistan. Some experts claim that the agreements signed during Putin’s visit “is a triumph of Russian diplomacy” and that Tajikistan obtained few advantages. Others believe that the agreements are equally beneficial for Tajikistan and Russia. For instance, according to the leader of the Communist Party of Tajikistan, Shodi Shabdolov, the modernization and arming of the Tajik armed forces, training of military personnel and customs free import of fuel from Russia will cost Russia “many millions of U.S. dollars” which would be a kind of payment for the Russian military presence in Tajikistan.
Likewise, the head of the Association of political scientists of Tajikistan, Abdugani Mamadazimov, stated that the outcomes of Putin’s visit to Tajikistan could be considered as beneficial to both countries. Mamadazimov believes that the renewal of the lease on the Russian military bases is a success for Russia, while Tajikistan succeeded in the improved conditions for Tajik labor migrants in Russia. According to different estimates, annual remittances from Tajik migrants in Russia accounts to more than half of Tajikistan’s GDP.
On the contrary, Rakhmatillo Zoirov, the leader of the National Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan, claimed that the agreement on the Russian military bases in Tajikistan corresponds to the political and military interests of Russia only. According to Zoirov, Tajikistan does not get any essential dividends from the Russian military presence in the country. Furthermore, “there might be benefits only for the power holders, whose influence in the country is guaranteed by the presence of Russian troops.” Likewise, the leader of the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan, Muhiddin Kabiri, calls the agreements signed by Dushanbe and Moscow “an achievement of Russian diplomacy.” Kabiri also mentioned in his statement about the outcomes of Putin’s visit that he is opposed to any foreign military bases on Tajikistan’s territory, particularly for such a long term.
However, most experts and politicians in Tajikistan agree that the presence of Russian military bases is important for security reasons, taking into account Tajikistan’s vulnerability to possible threats from neighboring Afghanistan when NATO troops withdraw in 2014.
