RUSSIA’S PRESIDENT VISITS KYRGYZSTAN
The visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Bishkek has resulted in the signature of vitally important agreements for Kyrgyzstan. While many consider this visit a historical turning point in Kyrgyzstan-Russia relations and a success of Kyrgyz foreign policy, others still voice concerns about the actual implementation of these agreements.
On September 20, President Putin paid an official one-day visit to Kyrgyzstan. As a result of the negotiations with the Kyrgyz leadership, the two sides have signed several long-awaited documents including an agreement on the construction of the Kambar Ata – 1 hydropower plant and the Upper-Naryn hydropower cascade, an agreement on the Russian united military base, and an agreement on writing off the US$ 489 million debt. In addition, Putin noted that these agreements will open the door for large investment projects in Kyrgyzstan that will further strengthen the long term cooperation and integration between the two states. The Russian leader has also promised support to Kyrgyzstan in its efforts to join regional integration processes, particularly with the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union.
Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambaev has in turn declared the opening of a new page in Kyrgyzstani-Russian relations after the “misunderstanding and bewilderment” of the past few years and noted that Russia remains Kyrgyzstan’s main and most important strategic partner. He called the signed agreements a “breakthrough for Kyrgyzstan” and expressed his hope for large Russian investments into the country’s economy.
The Kyrgyz side considers the long-awaited agreement on constructing the Kambar Ata-1 hydropower station and the hydropower cascade as its main achievement. It is notable that this is the second agreement on building these energy objects. The first was signed between Moscow and former Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev in 2009 with the latter failing to fulfill his promises. Despite this fact, Moscow has once again agreed to finance these projects with each side owning 50 percent of the shares. The cost for the hydropower station only is estimated to between US$ 2 billion and US$ 4 billion depending on the plant’s capacity. The agreement does not foresee concrete dates for the start of actual constructions works, it only notes that the construction will be launched after a feasibility study by the Russian side which is to take up to five months to complete. The Russian side will control Kyrgyzstan's shares in the objects until the investments are repaid.
The agreement was signed in spite of concerns voiced by the Uzbek and Kazakh leaders who objected publicly to the construction of hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In response, the Russian president highlighted the importance of an agreement between the regional states on this matter and has invited Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to join the implementation of these projects. Atambaev has also mentioned the necessity of compromise among the regional states and has noted that the construction of the hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan, on the contrary, will help Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan meet their irrigation needs.
Besides the energy projects, Moscow has agreed to write off the US$ 489 million loan debt to Kyrgyzstan. Out if this sum, US$ 189 million will be waived at once, whereas the remaining US$ 300 million will be written off over the course of 10 years starting 2016. Interestingly, Kyrgyzstan keeps the shares in the Dastan military torpedo-making plant which the Russian side has been demanding in exchange for the debt relief.
Furthermore, Kyrgyzstan and Russia have signed an agreement to transform the Russian military facilities in Kyrgyzstan – including the Kant airbase, the naval training center in Issykkul Lake and the seismic center in southern Kyrgyzstan – into one united military base. According to the document, the united military base will stay on Kyrgyz territory for another 15 years starting 2016 with a possible prolongation for another 5 years. In an interview to local television, President Atambaev has pointed out that the new agreement foresees the possibility of involving the Russian military base in case of an external attack against the country. Russia will protect our country if any other country or terrorist groups will attack Kyrgyzstan, Atambaev said.
In their statements, Putin and Atambaev claimed not to have discussed the fate of the U.S. airbase. However, the Russian leader said Russia supports Kyrgyzstan’s intention to transform the Manas Transit Center (the U.S. airbase) into a civilian transit hub in 2014. Moreover, the Russian side has expressed its willingness to assist Kyrgyzstan in building civilian infrastructure at the Manas airport.
Many local experts praised the results of Putin’s visit, giving credit to Atambaev’s diplomatic skills. While some observers say that Kyrgyzstan has achieved highly beneficial results from the visit, others note that Russia benefited even more due to the fact that the energy projects and the prolongation of Russia’s military presence meet Moscow’s geopolitical interests in the region. Nevertheless, all agree on one point – there are no guarantees that the signed agreements and intentions will indeed be implemented.
