UNREST IN KAZAKHSTAN’S WEST CHALLENGES GOVERNMENT
On December 16, when Kazakhstan was celebrating the 20th anniversary of its independence, the small industrial town of Zhanaozen situated in the western Mangystau region was rocked by bloody demonstrations organized by local oil industry workers. With the official count reaching 17 killed and about 100 wounded, some critically, this episode of social unrest sparked negative reactions in both national and foreign media. It also revealed the existence of serious social problems in a region largely believed to continually provide economic opportunities for its population due to the constant inflow of petrodollars.
BACKGROUND: The small Soviet-style town of Zhanaozen was founded in 1968 in response to the lack of manpower needed for the exploration of newly discovered oil deposits. Estimated to around 60,000 dwellers, its urban population grew by over 60 percent in a decade, mostly with the arrival of Kazakh-speaking repatriates from China and neighboring Central Asian republics. Serving as an operating site for scores of oil producing companies owned – on the terms of monopoly or jointly with foreign partners – by the National Oil and Gas Company KazMunaiGaz, Zhanaozen is considered a rather expensive city of the country’s west, in spite of its modest dimensions and poor infrastructure.
The first wave of protests in and around Zhanaozen dates back to May 16, 2011, when 700 people employed by two major companies, OzenMunaiGaz and KarazhanbasMunai, took to the streets to express their dissatisfaction with both companies’ leadership (comprised in part of Chinese managers) and labor remuneration policies, deemed incompatible with hard working conditions. On June 2, 120 employees were discharged, including Natalya Sokolova, a local lawyer representing the oil industry workers’ trade union. Three days later, 150 people working for a partner company providing transport services assembled in the central square of Aktau, a major city on the Caspian Sea, to defend the labor rights of their recently fired colleagues. The involvement of local police forces led to the arrest of 37 activists, a move which ultimately failed to stop the expression of discontent among the employees of the local oil industry.
On August 8, Natalya Sokolova was judged in a closed trial and sentenced to six years in prison for the organization of illegal meetings and assemblies as well as for the instigation of social discord. The protest movement in Zhanaozen and Aktau received wide support from the opposition leaders, such as Bulat Abilov (“OSDP Azat” party), Vladimir Kozlov (who chairs the unregistered “Alga” party), and others. Nonetheless, the leadership of the oil companies did not acquiesce to the claims of its workers and refused to engage in a dialogue with the aim to settle a long-lasting labor dispute by lawful methods.
On the day of large-scale celebrations commemorating Kazakhstan’s independence, hundreds of people gathered before the local government of Zhanaozen, renewing their claims for social justice. As a result of an altercation with police officers, more than 40 buildings in the downtown were burned, including the OzenMunaiGaz headquarters, a hotel, and several shopping centers. One day later, President Nazarbayev declared a curfew, initially expiring on January 5, 2012.
In response to the surge of violence in Western Kazakhstan, Prime Minister Karim Massimov appointed his deputy, Umirzak Shukeyev, as chairman of a governmental commission in charge of reconstruction works in Zhanaozen. Another investigative commission was formed under the chairmanship of Interior Minister Kassymov. Its purpose was to study the circumstances of the unrest and to bring to light the identity of those responsible for its organization.
IMPLICATIONS: Though Kazakh authorities categorically denied the indiscriminate use of force during the intervention by heavily armed police reinforcements, a number of videos were promptly posted on YouTube, showing dozens of people fleeing the scene and being shot in the back, beaten, and mutilated. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs rapidly issued a statement addressed to the country’s foreign partners, which minimized the scale of upheaval and hinted to the attempts of further destabilization by external forces.
President Nazarbayev’s advisor for political affairs, Ermukhamet Ertysbayev, even spoke of an information war unleashed by Rakhat Aliyev, Nazarbayev's former son-in-law, later exiled in Vienna and now in Malta. The Information and Analytical Center Parasat, associated with the Government, put forward a similar explanation, saying that “the Zhanaozen protests had been planned and masterminded by somebody from abroad. It is logical that ‘the holiday fireworks,’ leading to a destroyed stage, a burned fir-tree, and scared children, were part or probably the crown of somebody’s diabolic plan.”
After convening an extraordinary Security Council session and announcing a curfew, President Nazarbayev flew to Moscow to participate in the Supreme Council of the Eurasian Economic Community and later in the high-level meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). When asked about the implications of the Zhanaozen unrest for regional integration, Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev said that “[he is] currently more preoccupied with the general situation in the world economy and finance as well as in the Eurozone. This impacts far more significantly our countries, their internal economic situation, and their citizen’s moods.” The CSTO chairman, Nikolay Bordyuzha, ruled out any possibility of military action in Kazakhstan, believing its Government to wield enough resources to prevent the occurrence of more violence.
On December 22, President Nazarbayev visited Zhanaozen and Aktau. He replaced the regional governor with his long-time supporter and former Interior Minister Baurzhan Mukhamedzhanov, and also promised to fire his son-in-law Timur Kulibayev, chairman of the National Welfare Fund Samruk-Kazyna, which manages all state-owned oil and gas companies. Four days later, Kulibayev was replaced by Deputy Prime Minister Shukeyev. According to most experts, this unexpected dismissal will severely damage Kulibayev’s chances to become Kazakhstan’s next president, in case of an impending succession.
Despite the relative normalization of the situation in the country’s west, many human rights activists have already denounced the cases of abuse and arrest of independent journalists trying to investigate the circumstances of the December riots. By a personal decision, Nazarbayev decided to prolong the curfew until January 31. At the same time, Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Council ordered to cancel the upcoming parliamentary elections in Zhanaozen, referring to the existing law on the state of emergency restricting the right to elect and be elected in case of a threat to public safety and order. The President nevertheless vetoed the ruling, arguing it would deprive the citizens of their right to vote.
Whilst both Nazarbayev and Massimov ordered to enforce all measures prone to ensure accuracy and transparency in the ongoing investigations, Kazakhstan’s foreign partners remain concerned over the consequences of the violence. Rupert Colville, representing the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, called on Kazakh authorities “to immediately investigate this incident and to ensure that security forces do not use excessive force in upholding public order.”
CONCLUSIONS: The December 2011 unrest in Kazakhstan’s western province poses risks to President Nazarbayev’s rule, and to the country’s international standing. It also creates an opportunity for regional radical movements to play the card of social injustice in order to recruit additional supporters. The reaction of the West has clearly demonstrated the unacceptability of a tough response to the expression of people’s lawful rights. Former U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan William Courtney even wrote in his December 29 article “Kazakhstan at a Precipice” in The New York Times that “fraudulent elections could add to the troublesome brew, undermining a government that has enjoyed substantial power and support.”
AUTHOR’S BIO: Georgiy Voloshin is an independent analyst on Central Asian affairs, currently based in France. He previously worked for the Delegation of the European Union to Kazakhstan.
