The former de facto President of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity and the opposition leader Alla Dzhioyeva struck a deal on December 9 to put an end to the 10-day post-election turmoil sparked by the decision by the region’s Supreme Court to annul Dzhioyeva’s victory over the Kremlin’s favored candidate Anatoly Bibilov. The agreement, signed in the presence of a Kremlin official, foresees the interim leadership of Prime Minister Vadim Brovtsev before the inauguration of a new president, and Dzhioyeva’s participation in the 2012 repeat polls, scheduled for March 25. The Supreme Court previously banned Dzhioyeva from running in the March elections. Further, as part of the agreement, Kokoity along with the chief prosecutor, the chairman of the Supreme Court and other key officials must have left their posts.
In compliance with the agreement, Eduard Kokoity resigned on December 10. However, according to Dzhioyeva, the former president “created a Constitutional Court ... and made dozens of appointments in nine minutes,” just before departing from office. She considered it a violation of the agreement and summoned supporters to continue rallies in the center of Tskhinvali. However, faced with strong resistance among her key allies, she softened her stance and called on protesters to end the street demonstrations.
The presidential elections held on November 13 went into a runoff as none of the 11 candidates scored sufficient votes. Anatoly Bibilov, South Ossetia’s minister for emergency situations and former education minister Dzhioyeva competed in the second round. Based on the early results, which included 74 out of 85 polling stations, the breakaway regions’ Central Election Commission (CEC) announced Dzhioyeva’s lead with 56.74 percent of the votes over Bibilov who garnered 40 percent. Nevertheless, Bibilov refused to acknowledge Dzhioyeva’s victory and filed a complaint to the Supreme Court. On the ground of his complaint, the court abolished the election results due to suspected violations on Dzhioyeva’s side.
Dzhioeva reacted by submitting her own complaint to the Court, demanding the cancellation of the previous ruling and calling on her supporters to defend her “stolen” victory. Protesters started demonstrations and established camps in the capital city of the heavily militarized province. Tensions rose when an anti-tank rocket was fired at the breakaway region’s chief prosecutor Taimuraz Khugaev, a close associate of Kokoity. Whereas Kokoity linked the incident to the opposition’s protest rallies, Dzhioyeva claimed that such accusations were solely aimed at discrediting the opposition’s image.
Meanwhile, based on information from an unnamed official in the proxy government, the Russian daily Kommersant reported that there are two reasons why Dzhioyeva’s leadership would be improper for Kokoity. First, a personal hostility exists between Kokoity and the coach of the Russian free-style-wrestling team Jambolat Tedeev, who is buttressing Dzhioyeva’s election campaign. Though Tedeev himself wanted to participate in the recent elections, his candidacy was rejected by the CEC as he failed to meet the 10-year residency requirement. According to the source, Tedeev and his elder brother Ibragim helped Kokoity ascend to power in 2001. However, their later opposition to the former president allegedly led to Ibragim’s murder ahead of the presidential elections in 2006 when Kokoity secured his second and final term as president. The second reason why Dzhioyeva’s presidency is unacceptable to the South Ossetian ruling elite is that Dzhioyeva’s victory downplays the importance of Dmitry Medvedev’s open support for Anatoly Bibilov expressed in North Ossetia just a week before the runoff, Kommersant cited the official.
Officials in Tbilisi view the South Ossetian polls as an event directed by the Kremlin and do not recognize them as legitimate. Neither does the international community. “Today’s Russia has no resources to maintain the occupied territories; these days we are all watching what condition Russia is in; it is actually very shaken,” said Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.
Notably, similar post-election turmoil took place in Abkhazia seven years ago through a confrontation between Sergey Bagapsh and Raul Khajimba, who was supported by the Kremlin similarly to Bibilov in South Ossetia. The power sharing agreement mediated by Moscow resolved the problem. Accordingly Bagapsh became president and Khajimba vice-president of Abkhazia.
Whereas the scenario in South Ossetia has similarities with that in Abkhazia, there are also considerable differences. In their programs, both Bibilov and Dzhioyeva support the idea of South Ossetia’s accession to the Russian Federation. On the contrary, most of the Abkhazian elite reject the idea of Abkhazia’s direct amalgamation with Russia.
The recent turbulence in South Ossetia can be viewed as an internal power struggle among local clans rather than a contention over policy priorities. Kokoity’s last minute appointments signal the fragility of the achieved deal with probable further complications. Thus, if the Kremlin fails to achieve a peaceful change of government in March, sustained unrest could impact the stability of the whole region.