UZBEK SENATE REDUCES PRESIDENTIAL TERM FROM SEVEN TO FIVE YEARS
On December 5, the Uzbek Senate adopted a law “On introducing an amendment to article 90 of the Constitution of the Republic of Uzbekistan,” which regulates the presidential term. It was proposed as a legislative initiative by Uzbekistan’s president and envisions reducing the presidential term from seven to five years. As the press service of the Uzbek Parliament reported, the senators note that the amendment “reflects the objective reality, logic and sequence of the ongoing reforms in the country, corresponds to the requirement of the implemented Concept for further strengthening democratic reforms and formation of civil society in the country, and the practice which has formed in most of the developed democratic states of the world.” However, local observers distrust the good intentions of undemocratic Uzbek authorities and speculate about other reasons for such a measure.
The first presidential elections in Uzbekistan took place in December 1991. Then, Islam Karimov was elected for a term of five years. However, in March 1995 a referendum was held on prolonging his term until 2000. In 2000, Islam Karimov was re-elected for another five-year term, but as a result of another referendum in 2002, the presidential term was changed to seven years. President Karimov won the last elections in 2007. Thus, his current term should end in 2014.
However, with the adopted amendment the next presidential elections may be held already next year. Furthermore, the incumbent president may participate in those under the pretext that he did not complete his previous term. This is the first thing that comes to mind when the Constitution is changed in Uzbekistan. However, local observers have some other explanations for the underlying reasons of the amendment.
According to Daniil Kislov, chief editor of the “Ferghana” information agency, reducing the presidential term is a step taken by President Karimov in response to the position of the U.S.. Kislov thinks that by demonstrating the “democratization” of the regime in Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov hopes to gain more political and military support from Washington, which requires such steps in order to justify its support for one of the harshest authoritarian regimes internationally.
Another rumor circulating in local mass media suggests that Karimov actually decided to leave the presidential post, primarily due to his age. Karimov will turn 74 in January next year. Some local observers note that since Karimov does not have any apparent heirs, he wants to use his last three years as president to prepare a successor. In this light, it should be noted that many local political analysts name the current Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyaev as a potential successor. As one Parliamentarian anonymously stated:”The last rumblings in his surroundings may serve as evidence that he is looking for a potential candidate, and is considering whom he may entrust the country after he is gone.” Thus, Uzbek political scientist Rafik Sayfulin thinks that by amending the constitution, Karimov clearly signals his intention not to participate in the elections in 2014.
On the contrary, certain observers believe that it is yet another trick by Karimov to stay in power, since the amendment will nullify Karimov’s previous terms and allow him to rule for another five years before running for an additional second term. This opinion is supported by the president’s previous track record. Up until now, the Constitution has never posed an obstacle to creating conditions that would play into the President’s hands. Political scientist Tashpulat Yuldashev thinks that by initiating such an amendment and instilling debate on its possible consequences, Karimov seeks to distract the people’s attention from the existing social and economic problems in the country.
Even though each of these versions may be true, the senators think that “all these and other measures adopted are concrete evidence of the committed, phased and evolutionary advancement of our country on the road to democratization and liberalization of the political and economic system, and realization of the long-term goal, which Uzbekistan defines for itself – to join the modern developed democratic states.”
Aside from the potential effects of Washington’s demands, the amendment may imply two things. Either Karimov indeed decided to leave the presidential post, or is conversely seeking to secure some extra years in office. In any case, as the chief editor of independent internet newspaper Uzmetronom Sergey Ezhkov noted, the decision should be welcomed because it implies that the president, who was expected to stay in power for the rest of his life, will wilfully “reject the throne.” It thus seems that Karimov has drawn conclusions from the “Arab spring” and does not want to share the fate of the overthrown rulers. Yusuf Rasulov, an independent journalist based in Switzerland, states that “by doing so Karimov uses a pre-emptive tactic, hinting that he is ready to peacefully hand over the power when the current term will be over in exchange for security of his family and himself.”
