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Published on Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Analyst (http://www.cacianalyst.org)

ARMENIAN AUTHORITIES NEGOTIATIE WITH MAJOR OPPOSITION BLOC

By Haroutiun Khachatrian (08/31/2011 issue of the CACI Analyst)

In Yerevan, a series of meetings are being held between the two delegations of the ruling coalition and the opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC) created by Armenia’s first President Levon Ter-Petrosian. In the political jargon of Armenia the series of meetings, which are a unique phenomenon in the political history of Armenia, are simply called Dialogue. While negotiations between government and opposition to manage crises are overall unusual in former Soviet countries, the current dialogue features special peculiarities in the political context of Armenia.

First of all, although it is an influential political grouping, the ANC does not represent the whole spectrum of the political opposition in Armenia. The ANC was created three years ago out of political parties and grassroots organizations that supported Ter-Petrosian in his bid to be elected President once again during the elections of February 19, 2008. They also shared the conviction that the voting on that day was greatly flawed. After the election, the ANC declared the necessity of holding early parliamentary and presidential elections as its principal goal. It says that such elections, independent of their outcomes, are necessary in order to establish a legitimate political power in the country and for resolving the political crisis initiated by previous violations, including on February 19, 2008.

The beginning of dialogue meetings was a significant victory for ANC, for several reasons. First, the very idea of negotiations was first introduced by the ANC’s leader Ter-Petrosian and the authorities initially rejected it. As they later agreed to negotiate with the ANC, they simultaneously recognized it as an influential opposition force. This has been assessed negatively by numerous other opposition parties, including those who are already in parliament. Second, the authorities fulfilled a number of the ANC’s demands, of which the most important was the release of political prisoners, i.e. the supporters of ANC which were formally jailed for crimes associated with the events of February 19, 2008 and especially the tragic shootings of March 1 of the same year. To set these people free the authorities declared two amnesties in 2009 and in 2011.

The authorities also had an interest in negotiating with the opposition, since this would reduce the risk of developments similar to those of the Arab spring occurring in Armenia. As shown by subsequent events, the authorities have seemingly curbed this threat. Also, negotiations between ANC and the ruling three-party coalition lend credibility to President Sargsyan’s proclaimed goals of developing Armenian democracy and decreasing the role of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), Sargsyan’s own party which currently occupies over half the seats in parliament. This ambition is viewed positively by observers, who think the Dialogue may accelerate the breakdown of both the ruling coalition and the RPA itself.

Finally, the unprecedented negotiations have proven beneficial to both sides as it improves Armenia’s reputation as a democratic country. In particular, Ter-Petrosian said in one of his speeches that these negotiations have enhanced the positions of Armenia in the negotiations about Nagorno-Karabakh. Currently, negotiations between the delegations of the ANC and the ruling coalition proceed as a common political process. The delegations have agreed to meet twice a week, and during one of the meetings the ANC delegation handed over an 87-page document about the necessity of holding early elections. The authorities have reportedly prepared a 135-page response which is not yet disclosed. In parallel, the delegations discuss other issues including some unlawful actions of the police and other problems which, similarly, have not been disclosed.

The negotiations thus include a wide spectrum of issues. Meanwhile, observers claim that the ANC is in fact not interested in holding early parliamentary elections as it currently lacks the necessary resources for achieving sufficient results, while regular parliamentary elections are to be held next spring. In sum, the negotiations have greatly improved the political atmosphere in Armenia, hit hard by economic and political crises. “We have never been a radical opposition” ANC representative Levon Zurabian said after one of the meetings, a statement which caused surprise among the ANC’s supporters. “Rather, we are supporters of radical changes in this country,” Zurabian explained.


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