The latest round of Geneva talks held on June 7 in Switzerland signaled Tbilisi’s hesitation to participate in the multilateral format. Whereas previous rounds at least conveyed a “shared desire” to continue the talks, this discussion ultimately focused on reciprocal exchanges of blame between Moscow and Tbilisi and displayed the problematic dynamics of the negotiation format.
The talks, with the participation of senior representatives from Tbilisi, Moscow, Washington and the proxy Sokhumi and Tskhinvali regimes, were launched in Geneva shortly after August 2008 war. The discussions, mediated by the EU, OSCE and UN, aim to establish international security arrangements and provide a safe and dignified return of IDPs and refugees to their homes. The Geneva talks have nevertheless failed to produce any tangible progress on their central topics; security and humanitarian issues.
On the eve of the sixteenth round of the Geneva meetings, the Georgian Interior Ministry accused Russia of “state-sponsored terrorism” against Georgia. “Incidents of potential terrorist nature” thus appeared to be the major topic for the last discussion.
Tbilisi insisted it possesses credible evidence on two terrorism attempts plotted by Russian officers who were deployed in the breakaway regions South Ossetia and Abkhazia. One of the explosions was planned to take place in a market and the other outside a NATO liaison office, according to the Georgian Interior Ministry. Tbilisi claimed that it had been successful in foiling a “bombing campaign”, although it was not certain it would be able to thwart future terrorist acts provoked by Russia. “If terrorism attempts continue, Georgia will cease its participation in the Geneva talks” said Shota Utiashvili, the Georgian negotiator and a senior official of the Interior Ministry. Representatives from Tbilisi handed over a file containing testimonies of detained citizens and other evidence to the Russian delegation.
Grigory Karasin, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, said the electronic evidence would be examined with great scrutiny. However, he also stated that allegations against Russian security officers were “Tbilisi’s exercises in information-propaganda work”. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Aleksandr Lukashevich went one step further, blaming Georgia for carrying out twelve “raids” during this year in the Gali district of Abkhazia. The Georgian leadership has always been seeking for a “Russian trace” to justify its own failure in internal and external politics, Likashevich said.
The mediators of the Geneva talks voiced serious concern with the incidents taking place between the fifteenth and sixteenth rounds of negotiations. As a result of several shootings during the spring across the administrative borders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two Georgians and one Russian FSB serviceman were killed and two other Georgian civilians wounded. The EU special representative Pierre Morel assessed the situation “as stable, but unpredictable with a potential for dangerous escalation” given the number of casualties in a short period, and especially after two and a half years’ intensive work.
Not surprisingly, the hitherto unsuccessful consultations regarding non-use of force have created security setbacks, and have failed to lay the ground for humanitarian initiatives.
In particular, Tbilisi refused to sign a trilateral agreement on non-use of force with the proxy regimes in Sokhumi and Tskhinvali, fearing that this would imply its indirect recognition of their independence. Russia, in turn, does not see itself as a party to the conflict and refused to sign a new security treaty with Georgia. As deliberations on security arrangements went into a deadlock, Moscow alternatively proposed to commit unilaterally to non-use of force. The subsequent declaration on non-use of force made by President Mikheil Saakashvili at the European Parliament on November 23 did not change the overall picture, however, as the Kremlin required a declaration from Georgia in the form of written agreement.
Although Georgia proclaims incidents of terrorism to be the reason why it considers abandoning the Geneva talks, the argument has more fundamental causes. In fact, Tbilisi is losing its patience with perpetual talks on security mechanisms which do not change much for the country either in terms of stability guarantees or in terms of returning IDPs and refugees to their houses. Given Russia’s unfulfilled implementation of the Sarkozy-Medvedev cease-fire agreement to withdraw forces from the conflict zones to pre-war positions, even Moscow’s pledge not to use force might not make much difference. What matters in this regard is a more vigorous engagement of international organizations, along with U.S. and EU diplomacy to counter the continued militarization of the breakaway regions.
Threatening to abandon the Geneva talks, Georgia likely seeks to push European and U.S. mediators to make Russia agree on increased transparency and humanitarian access to the administrative borders, which might eventually result in the presence of international monitoring forces across the territory. Whereas this task is truly challenging, it is an avenue for reducing the risk of dangerous escalation anticipated by the mediators at the last round of Geneva talks. The next round scheduled for October 4 might start approaching these questions in order to maintain the only venue for communication between Georgia and Russia.