RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VISITS UZBEKISTAN AHEAD OF THE SCO SUMMIT
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited Uzbekistan on June 14, 2011. Medvedev was invited by Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov to discuss some issues of regional and international politics as well as economic issues. Even though the visit lasted only four hours, both leaders stated it was quite fruitful. Since the negotiations took place behind closed doors, observers voiced several ideas about the possible issues on the meeting’s agenda.
Sergey Prihodko, Assistant to the Russian President, reported that it was expected that the presidents would discuss the perspectives of bilateral economic cooperation including fuel and energy, expanding cooperation in combating international terrorism, extremism and organized crime, and coordinating efforts to fight the drug threat. During the meeting, President Medvedev noted that even though Russia and Uzbekistan have quite different figures, there is a growth in the trade turnover between the two states by 35-40 percent. Thus, he concluded that relations between the two states are “strategically very important for both parties”.
The two leaders also exchanged opinions about the events in the Middle East and North Africa and discussed the possible impact of these events on the situation in other regions of the world, including Central Asia. Karimov noted that the primary concern for Russia and Uzbekistan in relation to these events is the “elaboration of our common positions [and the] exchange of sincere opinions on the situation and issues that will need to be resolved in the nearest future”. Medvedev agreed with Karimov, stating that the consequences of these events will most likely play out over a substantial period of time and therefore Russia is interested in their development according to a clear and predictable scenario. He emphasized that they must discuss everything that happens in the closest neighborhood to guarantee the national interests of their countries. Furthermore, Medvedev underlined that Russia always maintains an open position on all key issues and has very close ties with Uzbekistan.
It is also speculated that the presidents may have touched upon one of the most controversial topics in the region – the usage of water. In this regard, Uzbekistan is unhappy about Tajikistan’s resumed plans to construct the Rogun hydropower station on the transboundary Vakhsh River. These concerns were raised after a working visit of Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon to Brussels last week, which resulted in a loan of US$ 21 million from the European Investment Bank for developing the energy sector in Tajikistan. Since Tajikistan has seemingly secured the EU’s support on this matter, Uzbekistan hopes that Russia will support its position as it did in January 2009. Then the Russian president stated that “Upstream and downstream Central Asian states should jointly coordinate such large projects”.
Finally, a delicate topic which was likely discussed is the domestic situation in Uzbekistan. The day before the Russian president’s visit, several Russian media outlets speculated that President Karimov may try to secure Moscow’s support in case the situation in Uzbekistan would destabilize. Several local experts also warn that in light of the recent gains by the opposition, which has announced the organization of a united coordination front, it is possible that the situation in Uzbekistan will undergo some changes. These could find inspiration in the events in the Middle East and North Africa. Local analysts think that Karimov would request political and military support from Russia in case of mass protests, and that he would in exchange reorient Uzbekistan’s foreign policy towards Russia. Rumors about upcoming protests have circulated several times during the last few months, and have primarily originated from exiled opposition politician Muhammad Salih.
It is noteworthy that almost no authoritative representatives of the Russian media accompanied Medvedev to Tashkent. Exceptions were made only for the film crews of pro-Kremlin TV channels. Russian political observer Arkadiy Dubnov observed that there was not a single print journalist from the presidential pool in this crew. According to Dubnov, this was in accordance with a request from the accepting side, as Russian media supposedly initiated a recent disinformation campaign about mass protests in the cities of Uzbekistan. This information was, however, not confirmed.
Thus, there were seemingly several reasons for Karimov to meet with the Medvedev behind closed doors. The meeting also presented an opportunity for the Russian President to improve its relationship with Uzbekistan, which has otherwise sought to strengthen its connections to the West lately.
