PAKISTAN SEEKS ACCESS TO CENTRAL ASIAN ELECTRICITY
On March 7-10, 2011, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon paid an official visit to Pakistan where he met with his Pakistani counterpart Asif Ali Zardari. Official media report that the parties discussed “strengthening and further development of friendly relations and bilateral cooperation” during the visit. In addition, the President of Tajikistan held separate meetings with relevant ministers and discussed cooperation between the two countries in the fields of trade and economy, agriculture, public health, etc. As a result of the visit, over 30 agreements were signed, including a joint communiqué by the two Presidents, an interstate agreement on cooperation in the field of sport, and a number of inter-agency agreements in the fields of agriculture and public health.
Most experts agree, however, that the major topic for discussion between the Tajik delegation and their hosts was the development of cooperation in the energy sector, particularly within the framework of the prospected CASA-1000 project. Although there was no official statement regarding CASA-1000 except for “good intentions to develop cooperation between the two countries in the hydropower sector”, experts believe that both sides reconfirmed their positive intentions towards the Project.
CASA-1000 aims at providing electric power for export from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan and Afghanistan, mainly during the summer periods. According to the initial agreements, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will supply an equal amount of electricity to Pakistan, which will receive 70-75 percent, and Afghanistan, which will receive 20-25 percent.
The construction of several new power transmission stations is planned within the framework of CASA-1000: Datka-Khujand, which will connect the power energy supply systems of Kyrgyzstan and Northern Tajikistan; Khujand-Rogun-Sangtuda, which will connect Kyrgyzstan and Northern Tajikistan with the South of Tajikistan; and Sangtuda-Kunduz-Pol-e-Khumri-Kabul-Peshawar, which will connect Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan and Pakistan through one power energy system. The total length of the CASA-1000 electric power lines is planned to be about 1,600 kilometers (1,00 miles), making it the most extensive regional power supply project to date. It is planned that almost 90 percent of the project will be funded by international finance organizations like the Islamic Development Bank, the World Bank and others. The remaining 10 percent of the required funds will be provided by private investors.
Immediately after the top level negotiations between Tajikistan and Pakistan, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani visited Kyrgyzstan. As a result of the visit, a joint declaration containing a specific paragraph where both sides “declare their interest” in cooperation under the framework of CASA-1000 and “emphasize the importance” of the project was signed by the sides. Thus, Pakistan managed to get a principal confirmation from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan about CASA-1000.
Uzbekistan seems unhappy about this ambitious regional project. As the English-speaking Pakistani newspaper Dawn reported recently, Uzbekistan’s Embassy in Islamabad handed over a note of discontent about CASA-1000 to the Ministry of Water and Energy of Pakistan. In the note, Uzbekistan claims that the transmission line planned under CASA-1000 “contradicts international law and agreements”. Uzbekistan insists that any trans-boundary hydropower project should only be realized after comprehensive assessments of its environmental impact in the region. Thus, according to the Pakistani news outlet, Uzbekistan seeks to persuade Pakistan to refrain from participating in CASA-1000. In return, Uzbekistan will co-finance the construction of three hydropower stations on the Swat River in Pakistan. Finally, Uzbekistan questions the ability of Afghanistan to provide security during the construction of the energy transmission stations and lines required for CASA-1000.
Local experts believe that Uzbekistan’s position towards CASA-1000 stems from the conflict between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan over the Rogun hydropower project in Tajikistan. After its completion, Roghun would become one of the largest hydropower stations in Central Asia. Uzbekistan is explicitly against the construction of the station, claiming that it would damage the environmental balance in the region. Thus, Uzbekistan utilizes any opportunity to press Tajikistan into abandoning the Rogun project, and now voices similar objections against CASA-1000.
By supporting CASA-1000, Pakistan has become a new party to the Central Asian hydropower dispute. Thus, Pakistan’s Minister of Water Resources and Energy, Said Navid Kammar, made an official statement that Pakistan is not going to abandon CASA-1000, regardless of Uzbekistan’s position. Pakistan is highly interested in importing electricity from Central Asia due to its significant energy shortages. At the same time, it seems that Pakistan wants to avoid exacerbating the conflict with Uzbekistan, as Gilani confirmed his country’s “interest in long-term cooperation with Uzbekistan” during his official visit to Tashkent. Still, the CASA-1000 project and the ambiguous position of Pakistan risks bringing additional tension to the uneasy relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
