On March 5, Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev held a meeting in Sochi. The Russian President, Dmitri Medvedev acted as a mediator. The meeting was the eighth trilateral one since the presidents met in Russian Meindorf on October 2008, and was initially welcomed by observers as a sign that the negotiation process is still alive. The two presidents signed a statement in Sochi stating that they “emphasized the importance of their regular contacts on issues related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement and agreed to continue these in the same format to complement the work of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group”.

Representatives of the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group; Russia, the U.S. and France, were also present in Sochi and held separate meetings with the two presidents. Additional optimism was derived from the fact that, according to the statement, the two presidents agreed “to seek to solve all controversial issues by peaceful means and conduct investigations – with the participation of both sides – into possible incidents along the ceasefire line under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and with the support of the special representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office”. Both prior to and after the meeting, numerous incidents, including lethal ones, have occurred along the line of contact between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenian and Azerbaijani troops. Yet, experts express hopes that a new mechanism will be created through which the OSCE will participate in examining the incidents and that this will eventually lead to increased confidence between the parties.

Comments offered by the two parties appeared even more optimistic. First, Novruz Mamedov, the head of the foreign relations department of the Azerbaijani president’s administration, was quoted on March 6 as saying that “A slight positive change in Yerevan’s position was perceived” at the Sochi meeting. In addition, Sargsyan said on March 12 that “The [recent] meeting in Sochi can be considered a sort of landmark. There is now a clear basis for negotiations and there are agreements for short periods of time”. He also said: “I think the [latest] meeting in Sochi differs from other meetings”. According to Sargsyan, conditions were established during the meeting which may lead to agreements on the basic principles of settlement in the foreseeable future. And if this happens, then real negotiations on the settlement will start.

Hence, the intense preparatory efforts prior to the Sochi meeting in which representatives of Russia, the U.S. (Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg visited the region), and Turkey participated might bring some progress in the efforts to reach a settlement on Nagorno-Karabakh. As an initial step, a mechanism for more intense action of the OSCE structures in the conflict zone should be established. To that end, the OSCE Minsk group co-chairs began a visit to the region on March 15. It is not excluded that the OSCE Minsk group may establish a permanent office in the disputed region. As another positive result of the Sochi meeting, an exchange of POWs may be conducted. A return of the POWs was stipulated by the document signed last October in Astrakhan but has so far not been completed, so the Sochi declaration stipulates that the exchange should be implemented. On March 14, the Armenian Ministry of Defense confirmed its earlier commitment to pass all Azerbaijani POWs to the International Committee of the Red Cross.

Another sign of progress is the fact that soon after the Sochi meeting, Azerbaijan called on the Armenian party (it refuses to recognize the authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh as a party to the conflict) to withdraw snipers from the contact line. It has repeatedly rejected similar previous calls from the mediators, saying that the withdrawal of snipers would not help the settlement process. Meanwhile, the authorities of both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh have expressed a readiness to follow that call. The removal of snipers was reported to be among the top issues discussed by the co-chairmen with the president of Azerbaijan.

In addition, another meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan may take place in about a month, according to the reports. Thus, the Sochi meeting has evidently resulted in some reconciliation of the Armenian and Azerbaijani positions, and may pave the way for some progress in the resolution of this conflict, which is over 20 years old. However, the sides still need to display the political will to consolidate the progress made since the previous propaganda clinches are strong on each side and difficult to overcome.