The clouds of suspense around the issue of a national referendum for the extension of President Nazarbayev’s mandate have been finally cleared. The Constitutional Court decided that the proposed constitutional amendments were illegitimate as they do not explicitly specify in which way the suggested referendum could be fitted into the existing legal framework.
In response to this solemn declaration, Kazakhstan’s President made a brief statement on the same day, January 31, voicing the idea of early presidential elections, which would curtail his current term by almost 2 years. The presidential advisor for political matters Ermukhamet Ertysbayev immediately informed the press that such early elections could be held around May 1, 2011. But a few days later the presidential decree published in the official government newspaper stated that the first round of electoral competition would be organized on April 3, following the prompt adoption by the Parliament of minor constitutional amendments authorizing the head of state to decide on the appropriateness of an early presidential contest.
Despite the fact that numerous observers and experts have been pointing to the absence of any legal grounds for the organization of early voting such as an overly strained political situation, the president’s legal incapacity or other pressing circumstances, Kazakhstan’s external partners rapidly agreed to this tactical move. The EU’s High Representative for foreign affairs and security policy Catherine Ashton stressed that by putting an end to the proposed referendum “President Nazarbayev has acted in the best long-term interest for Kazakhstan”. She also expressed her desire to see Kazakhstan fully comply with accepted democratic standards by ensuring that the elections are free and fair.
The reaction of the U.S. State Department voiced by its official spokesperson Philip J. Crowley was similarly positive, though he intentionally declined to comment on the legality of early presidential elections, only saying that the State Department welcomed the abandonment of a national referendum. The OSCE Secretary General Marc Perrin de Brichambaud spoke in the same vein, his organization being particularly interested in avoiding a situation where last year’s OSCE chairman would be in clear breach of its multilateral commitments.
Before submitting his application to the Central Election Commission, President Nazarbayev attended the 13th Congress of the National Democratic Party “Nur Otan” of which he is the official leader. In a speech given on February 11, the head of state solemnly proclaimed that all the national priorities he had outlined after the last election in 2005 have been achieved ahead of schedule. He also familiarized the party members with the six most important goals for the next few years. Kazakhstan’s medium-term development will now be aimed at improving the living conditions of ordinary people, providing accessible high-quality education and healthcare, resolving the housing problem, readjusting economic growth in order to achieve greater competitiveness and ensuring further political modernization through comprehensive dialogue and sustainable social peace. Attending the Congress was the Chairman of the International Conference of Asian Political Parties, Jose de Venecia, Jr., who decorated Nazarbayev with an Order “For outstanding achievements and service of humankind”, reiterating a years-old proposal to nominate Kazakhstan’s president for the Nobel Peace Prize for his decision to give up nuclear weapons.
On the same day, the acting President successfully passed the Kazakh language examination by a special linguistic commission that had previously declared another candidate’s knowledge of the official language incompatible with adequate standards. The second competitor who managed to obtain a satisfactory result at the examination is Musagali Duambekov, the leader of an environmentalist movement. Despite his presidential bid, Duambekov has already declared that he is not counting on victory at the polls. “It is utopian to think that I may be pretending to the first place. Everybody knows that I do not represent the opposition. I am a person from science. Our position has been initially neutral and we do support the president” he said, casting a serious doubt on the real scope of his political ambition.
The leader of the main opposition party “Azat”, Bulat Abilov, earlier stated his personal wish to run for presidency, but later disavowed all previous statements, saying that his participation in the presidential elections will depend upon some clear preconditions. He explicitly cited such concessions as the reversal of the decision to hold an early electoral contest, fair access to national media for political advertising and removal of administrative barriers. This declaration was perceived by the majority of experts as a vivid manifestation of the opposition’s unwillingness to engage in serious political competition with the current president.
Ertysbayev only strengthened the initial impression by saying that Nursultan Nazarbayev’s triumph was a foregone conclusion, given the fact that in the first round he would be facing no one but “dwarf rivals”. .”
Whether the eviction process meets international standards or not, uprooting and relocating IDPs to isolated settlements lacking essential infrastructure is unlikely to ease the burden of an already vulnerable group. Durable housing is a start, but without means to earn a living and access to basic services such as grocery shops, schools and medical centers, the IDPs cannot be said to have been offered a long-term solution.