DECLARATION ADOPTED AT ASTANA SUMMIT CALLS FOR CONTINUING TALKS ON NAGORNO-KARABAKH
During the December 1-2 OSCE summit held in Astana, a separate document about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was adopted, which largely expressed the OSCE’s ambition to maintain the status quo in the conflict and prevent the situation from deteriorating further. This implies that Nagorno-Karabakh is considered the most serious conflict on the OSCE’s territory. However, the Azerbaijani and Armenian positions voiced during the summit reconfirmed that the OSCE’s ambitions for conflict resolution do not match its capabilities. The positions of the conflicting parties remain far apart; underscoring the risk that Nagorno-Karabakh may not only remain an unresolved conflict, but may see a future return to military violence.
BACKGROUND: The OSCE summit held in Astana, Kazakhstan, on December 1-2 failed to reach its principal goal; to negotiate a universal plan for the settlement of conficts in the organization’s territory. Instead, a non-binding declaration named the “Astana Commemorative Declaration” was adopted. In the document, the unresolved conflicts on OSCE territory are addressed exensively, but the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh was the only one to be awarded a special document during the summit. On the first day of the summit, a five-page joint declaration concerning Nagorno-Karabakh was adopted, which was signed by the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia and the representatives of the Minsk Group co-chairs; Russia (represented by President Dmitri Medvedev), the U.S. (represented by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton) and France, represented by Prime Minister Francois Fillon. This declaration confirmed the commitment of the parties to seek a peaceful solution to the conflict based on the principles of Helsinki Final Act and the UN Charter. The co-chairs also called for additional steps to strengthen the ceasefire and carry out confidence-building measures.
In their speeches at the summit after the declaration on Nagorno-Karabakh was signed, Presidents Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia reiterated their prevous mutually exclusive positions on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the former claiming that “Nagorno-Karabakh is a historic part of Azerbaijan”, and the latter claiming that “Nagorno Karabakh has no future within Azerbaijan”. Thus, the summit largely confirmed the current status quo around this conflict, as well as the necessity of continued negotiations, which have been ongoing under the auspices of the OSCE since the early 1990s.
This is largely considered a diplomatic failure on the part of Azerbaijan, which has sought a quick change of the current status quo while Armenian forces control not only Nagorno-Karabakh itself but also seven Azerbaijani territories beyond it. First, Azerbaijan, which formally does not exclude a return to armed conflict in order to regain control over Nagorno-Karabakh, had to sign a document stressing the nessecity of seeking a peaceful and negotiated solution to the problem. This was a cosequence of the OSCE principle of “indivisible security”, which was again confirmed by the Astana Commemorative Declaration.
Second, Azerbaijan, which has made intense efforts recently to include other international fora in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution process had to sign the Astana Commemorative Declaration which read: “Increased efforts should be made to resolve existing conflicts in the OSCE area in a peaceful and negotiated manner, within agreed formats...”.
Third, Azerbaijan has always sought settlment of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on the basis of one selected principle of the Helsinki Act, that of “territorial integrity”, lowering the value of the other two, namely the right to self determination and non-use of force. This is official Baku’s most commonly used argument for its claim to Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.
However, U.S. Secratary of State Clinton said in her speech in Astana: “Let me reiterate ... that the foundation of any lasting and fair settlement [in Nagorno-Karabakh] must be the Helsinki principles as well as the six elements articulated by Presidents Medvedev, Sarkozy, and Obama ... These proposed elements were conceived as an integrated whole and any attempt to select some elements over others would make it impossible to achieve a balanced solution.”
IMPLICATIONS: The OSCE summit in Astana apparently failed to give new impetus to the efforts toward settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which is one of the oldests unresolved conflicts in Eurasia. The summit largely reconfirmed that no international body, including the interested superpowers taking part in the attempts to settle this conflict as mediators, can reach any solution unless the conflicting parties agree to it. The two countries involved in this conflict have proven unable to make any substantial compromise in their positions. Thus, the conflict has remained destructive to the region’s politics and economy throughout the 16 years since the cease-fire was established.
The principal danger of this conflict is that a resumption of military means remains a distinct possibility. If such violence would recur, it would in all likelihood be initiated by Azerbaijan, since Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh de facto authorities are satisfied with the prevailing status-quo, and Baku has over the past few years become increasingly bellicose in its statements on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Three principal factors would seriously increase the risk of resumed violence on Azerbaijan’s part. These are, first, a failure of Azerbaijan’s diplomatic efforts regarding the conflict. Second, a Turkish move to open its land border and/or lifting its trade embargo on Armenia, ending the two-side embargo in favor of Azerbaijan which has been imposed since 1993. In recent months, there have been numerous signs from Turkish high-ranking officials that Turkey migh improve its relations with Armenia. Third, any instability or violence in neighboring Iran can provoke a resumption of violence in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone.
In addition, the political climate in Armenia is becoming less and less favorable to making concessions for conflict resolution due to a growth in extermist movements. Whereas Sargsyan could formerly speak openly about the posibility of withdrawing Armenian forces from the territories around Nagorno-Karabakh in exchange for Azerbaijan’s recognition of the region’s independence, the movements opposing the return of any territory to Azerbaijan have in recent months become increasingly active, terming these territories “liberated” rather than “occupied”. At Astana, Sargsyan even went so far as to threaten diplomatic recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence in case of Azerbaijani-initiated hostilities.
In sum, the chance of finding a final solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem is becoming increasingly distant. The negotiations may become even more difficult now as Sargsyan has reportedly set certain preconditions for further meetings with his Azerbaijani counterpart, in particular demanding guarantees that Aliyev refrains from making controversial political statements immediately following the meetings. In short, the negotiations are likely to move at an even slower pace in the future.
CONCLUSIONS: During the OSCE Summit in Astana, the main actors of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict signed a declaration pledging to renew their efforts to reach a solution to the conflict on the basis of previously adopted documents, primarily on the statements of Presidents Medvedev, Sarkozy, and Obama, at L'Aquila on July 10, 2009, and at Muskoka on June 26, 2010. The document also contains a call to strengthen the ceasefire and carry out confidence-building measures. The outcome of the summit nevertheless indicates that the present difficulties in negotiations over Nagorno-Karabakh will continue. The positions of the conflicting parties remain far apart, and the danger of renewed violence in the future will not be alleviated in the foreseeable future.
AUTHOR’S BIO: Haroutiun Khachatrian is an analyst on political and economic issues based in Yerevan.
