ARMENIA EXPECTS FEW OUTCOMES OF MINSK GROUP FIELD MISSION
The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs carried out a Field Assessment Mission to the occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh on October 7-13. During this period, Bernard Fassier (France), Robert Bradke (U.S.) and Igor Popov (Russia) traveled all the seven regions around the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. The declared goals of the mission supported by three technical experts, including two from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), was “to study the general situation in the region”. “Two of three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group have been appointed only recently, they have never been in the conflicts zone and do not know the situation in details”, the Armenian Foreign Minister Edvard Nalbandian said on October 4, implying Bradke and Popov. “They will use the opportunity and familiarize themselves with the situation”, the minister said. Nalbandian also informed that the initial agreement to organize this mission was reached as early as in the spring of 2010. Prior to the start of the mission, the co-chairs held separate meetings with the presidents and foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia and the leaders of the unrecognized NKR.
“The Mission provided an important opportunity for the co-chairs to meet with numerous people on the ground and familiarize themselves with the overall current situation in the territories, in all respects, including humanitarian needs. The unprecedented participation of technical experts from the UNHCR allowed the Mission team to understand better the rights, within the framework of international humanitarian law, of all refugees and displaced persons in the region and the conditions now facing those living on these territories”, the co-chairs said in a statement released at the end of the mission. “The co-chairs, with input from the experts, are now compiling the information gathered during their Mission. After completing this work, they will prepare an internal OSCE report, which will be shared with all sides”, the statement read. It is expected that this report will be presented to the conflicting parties during the next visit of the co-chairs to the region in early November.
Armenian experts share the general view that the principal goal of the mission was to ensure that the Armenian governments of Yerevan and Stepanakert are not taking actions to populate these territories with ethnic Armenians. A similar mission was carried out in 2005. In other words, the co-chairs need to check that these governments have no plans to annex the territories around Nagorno-Karabakh, and that these territories are open to the return of their original Azerbaijani population, a precondition which is seen as necessary for the final resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. As such, the mission is seen as a stabilizing action that can consolidate the cease-fire regime, a goal which is seen as principal given an increasing number of sniper attacks of the Azerbaijani army and bellicose statements by Azerbaijani politicians. The future report of the co-chairs and related discussions are seen as preparations for a possible breakthrough on this subject at the OSCE Summit due in Astana in December.
Meanwhile, the Field Mission has little positive political impact. Several politicians and political parties in Armenia and in Nagorno-Karabakh declared that the Minsk group co-chairs should be more neutral and should not to limit themselves by examining the situation in Azerbaijan’s occupied territories. According to them, the co-chairs should also examine the situation in territories claimed by the NKR, which are now controlled by Azerbaijan (namely, part of the Mardakert region of the former Nagorno Karabakh autonomous province and the Shahumian region of Azerbaijan).
In addition, a previously little known movement has become much stronger in light of the field mission. The organization of the Armenians of Azerbaijan – mainly Armenians who lived in Baku and other big cities of Azerbaijan and fled the pogroms following the start of the movement for Karabakh’s independence – has issued a statement claiming the right of Armenians of Azerbaijan to live on the territories around Nagorno-Karabakh under the same conditions as other Azerbaijani citizens.
Finally, Armenia’s president Serzh Sargsyan condemned the official propaganda methods of Azerbaijan in unprecedented tough wording on October 17. He described the Azerbaijani line, which became more intense on the eve of the November 7 general elections in Azerbaijan as “anti-Armenian fascism”. This was in response to top Azerbaijani leaders referring to modern Armenia as “part of the lands of Azerbaijan” – a term which, according to the Armenian leader, did not exist 100 years ago.
In summary, the Field Assessment Mission of the Minsk Group co-chairs seems to have had little influence on the tense situation in the South Caucasus. The most optimistic expectations voiced in Yerevan are that it had some stabilizing effect by restricting the risk of resumed hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh zone of conflict. No serious breakthrough is expected as a result of this Mission.
