Relations between the U.S. and Pakistan remain tense despite Islamabad’s decision to allow vital supplies for coalition troops in Afghanistan after an ISAF helicopter incursion into Pakistan that claimed the lives of four Pakistani soldiers and injured another two. Meanwhile, the usage of Unmanned Arial Vehicles (UAVs) inside Pakistan’s tribal areas continues despite widespread public discontent in Pakistan. Islamabad has yet to condemn drone incursions and unlawful killings resulting from drone attacks. Meanwhile, militants are increasingly attacking targets in Pakistan such as its security forces and NATO supply caravans, traveling from the coastal areas to the Torkham border crossing.
BACKGROUND: Faced with the worst floods in its history since July 28, an estimated 22 million Pakistanis are affected by the disaster, half of them in dire need of food, healthcare and shelter. Under these conditions, exactly when the corruption-tainted People’s Party government belatedly sought international help, the Pentagon decided to intensify UAV attacks, claiming eight lives in each raid on average. A compilation of figures from newspaper reports based on leaked information either by U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan or their Pakistani counterparts shows that drone attacks have killed 158 persons since the flooding started. The average ratio of intrusions over the last three months has been one drone attack a day. Another study suggests that missile strikes from some 158 drones killed over 700 persons until September 30, with only 13 being identified as alleged militants. The remainder was allegedly collateral damage, for which neither side is keen to offer compensation and apologies.
Washington insists that its forces are entitled to hit targets six miles into the Pakistani tribal areas. Officials claim that such an understanding was reached with the then president General Pervez Musharraf. Google Earth images, showing latitude and longitude, suggest that drones are not violating Pakistani airspace as they are being launched from within the country to hit the alleged militants. The U.S. has repeatedly asked Islamabad to go after the al-Qaeda network more aggressively in its wild west along the Afghan border where it has suffered the highest number of peacetime casualties, a death toll that the combined casualties of all multinational troops in Afghanistan cannot equal.
Pakistan has committed 100,000 troops along the western border alongside army gunships and air force bombers. For fighting pitched at a decisive final round of battles in landlocked Afghanistan, uninterrupted supply lines from Pakistan attain vital importance. On any given day, 532 supply vehicles cross into Afghanistan from Pakistan after safely completing a risky journey of 1,800 kilometers across the country, with growing anti-U.S. sentiments along the highway. Half of the necessary supplies reach Afghanistan via Pakistan. In addition, 20 percent is transported by air and 30 percent along the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) through the Caucasus and Central Asia.
IMPLICATIONS: As the NDN is for a variety of reasons a costly transport route, the U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan rely heavily on the route via Pakistan, which remains the shortest and the most viable option for vital supplies. Over the last weeks, NATO tankers and trucks were set alight in at least five major incidents. While the tankers and containers are insured, the increasing availability of bullet-proof jackets, combat boots and other equipment in the Peshawar and Quetta markets supports the notion that containers are generally emptied before being torched. Interestingly, ethnic Pashtuns have a sort of monopoly on the trucking and transportation business in Pakistan. Sympathy for the Pashtuns dying in drone attacks, besides hefty insurance claims, are seen as motivating factors behind clandestine operations. Analysts believe that the Taliban would prefer looting goods and fuel and hijacking the crew instead of torching the vehicles every time.
When NATO supply containers are hard to find, Pakistani troops deployed in tribal areas are frequently subjected to suicide attacks as reactions to the drone strikes. While the seven semi-autonomous tribal agencies have continually faced an economic blockade over the last five years, the U.S. promises to establish Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (ROZs) have not materialized.
In the absence of economic activity and a deteriorating functioning of law and order, migration has become a natural means for survival. Moreover, business activities have faced a fatal blow due to the back-to-back operations of the Pakistani military. The U.S.-led forces have been pressuring Islamabad to launch a fresh offensive in North Waziristan while Islamabad has been seeking more time and resumption of the political process, mainly due to decreasing support for its actions due to unabated drone attacks from across the Durand Line.
More recently, Washington has been echoing with bizarre terms such as “good Taliban” while many known militia leaders have been removed from the United Nations terrorist list. President Karzai has long been inviting the Taliban and other Afghan militants to negotiations.
Islamabad has also expressed a need for dialogue with the Pakistani Taliban along the same lines as have Kabul over the last months. In private, Pakistani officials see a hawkish approach towards the Pakistani Taliban from both sides not just as risky, but as suicidal.
CONCLUSIONS: Each drone attack on Pakistani territory manifests the U.S. distrust of the Pakistani security forces, while ignoring the implications such short-term measures have had for the overall scenario. Though neither Pakistan nor the U.S. officially release the death toll from drone strikes or the names of victims, headlines with vague references to collateral damage never go unregistered amongst the public. The execution of such attacks on the basis of poor intelligence has created the impression that each missile strike claims more innocent tribesmen than alleged Taliban or al-Qaeda operatives. The situation arising out of the helicopter incursions into Pakistan should be utilized to review the rules of the game at this critical juncture of the conflict. Any misadventure on the part of U.S.-led NATO troops can spoil the gains achieved over the nine year campaign. While U.S. taxpayers want an end to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, flood-ravaged Pakistan needs a stable economy and improved rule of law. Not only should the U.S. seek to isolate the Afghan Taliban from their Pakistani comrades by halting drone attacks and initiating talks, Pakistan must also review its strategy and tactics while seeking to initiate a feasible political process. Pakistan’s biggest challenge is to strike a balance in its relationship with the U.S. vis-à-vis growing public discontent following the ongoing spate of almost daily border violations through UAVs.
AUTHOR’S BIO: Naveed Ahmad is an investigative journalist and academic with focus on regional politics, security and energy issues. He reports for ISN Security Watch (www.isn.ch), Gulf News and DW-TV.