KYRGYZSTAN POSTPONES DECISION ON OSCE MISSION TO AFTER ELECTIONS
Rosa Otunbaeva’s initiative to invite the OSCE Police Advisory Group to take part in post-conflict rehabilitation in Kyrgyzstan has led to wide discussions. Supporters of bringing in the Advisory Group believe that it will help stabilize the situation and ease public distrust in the national police. The opponents insist that the Advisory Group will interfere with Kyrgyzstan’s domestic affairs, which could in turn escalate the conflict and reinforce separatist movements in Kyrgyzstan’s South. Under pressure from both sides, Otunbaeva openly declared that she will consider inviting the mission only after the parliamentary elections on October 10.
BACKGROUND: In mid-July, representatives of the foreign ministries of the 56 OSCE member states met in Almaty for an informal meeting to discuss the introduction of the OSCE Police Advisory Group in order to help stabilize the situation in southern Kyrgyzstan. The mission would deploy 52 police officers from the OSCE member states to the Osh and Jalalabad provinces for a period of four months. The group will not have executive rights and will not be armed. Its key aims include assisting in confidence building between the national police and social groups, monitoring the situation, and defining measures to improve the work of local police.
However, there is no consensus on this issue among Kyrgyz politicians. President Otunbaeva insists on the need for international support in investigating the causes of the conflict and implementing post-conflict rehabilitation. From the first alarming hours, she has called for international support in resolving the conflict, outlining the need for Russian help. After Russia refused Otunbaeva’s proposal, the role of the OSCE in post-conflict rehabilitation has been actively discussed.
For Otunbaeva, the decision to bring in the Advisory Group would help the new authorities gain increased international support and recognition in the context of growing international pressure to conduct an objective investigation of the conflict.
Appointed shortly after the Osh events, Interior Minister Kubatbek Baibolov has repeatedly called for deploying the Advisory Group. Former Interior Minister Ismail Isakov has an opposing view, along with former member of the Provisional Government Temir Sariyev. The movement “Kyrgyzstan is against the introduction of foreign forces” has declared that it is ready to block traffic at Osh city airport, while a union of the twelve youth organizations in Osh has announced that they will conduct unlimited protests. Local authorities in Osh have also actively protested the Advisory Group deployment.
The legislative authorities of the Osh City Council have rejected consultative support from the Advisory Group. A major role in the opposition to international assistance is played by Melis Murzakmatov, the head of Osh city, who openly questions the policies of both the president and the provisional government, underlining that their decisions will not be implemented in Osh. An attempt by the president to remove him from his office failed as locals organized protests in his support, and Otunbaeva had to step back in fear of renewed destabilization. Murzakmatov is not alone in his position, but relies on Bakiev’s supporters who have in turn organized the political party “Ata Jurt” and will likely play a serious role in the parliamentary elections. The opponents of Otunbaeva’s decision voice two main arguments. First, that the situation in the South is stabilizing and the need for foreign engagement is becoming less urgent. Second, they argue that foreign involvement in post-conflict rehabilitation may provoke new conflicts in the South, which overshadows the potential positive effects of introducing the Advisory Group.
IMPLICATIONS: The upcoming parliamentary election is currently a decisive factor in Kyrgyzstan’s political processes. Debates over the Advisory Group can be considered maneuvering for political mobilization in the coming election. Simultaneous with these debates, Otunbaeva has signed several decrees changing the judiciary corpus at the rayon level. All election disputes will now be solved at this level. The existing combination of two factors – a high number of parties and a weak judiciary system to handle disputes over election results – will no doubt further upset political stability. Despite many statements by the current government on its will to provide free and fair elections, it is becoming clear that administrative resources are already being used by the parties whose leaders are represented in the government.
The Osh events led to radical changes in electorate preferences. Before these events, the most supported parties were the Social-Democratic Party, Ata-Meken and Ak-Shumkar. It is now questionable whether these parties will be able to obtain 50 percent of the votes. The leading parties are losing their weight and have acquired a negative image due to their inability and unwillingness to resolve the conflict. This implies a chance for new parties to quickly become popular if they are able to propose different policies and oppose the current government’s decisions on urgent issues.
New political parties as Butun Kyrgyzstan, Ata Jurt and Respublika are busy gathering support in the South by criticizing the current government’s policies. If these parties win, the introduction of the Advisory Group will be out of the question. It should be noted that several pro-Russian parties, such as Sodrujestvo, the Communist Party and USSR are also against this initiative.
The Advisory Group’s focus on ethnic minority rights also raises doubt and anxiety among nationalistic groups, who consider the OSCE activities as an attempt to initiate increasing autonomy for the South. These fears are fueled by an information vacuum, as the Government refuses to make public the text of the memorandum, and as the consultations are conducted behind closed doors.
In the debate over the Advisory Group’s deployment, it is rarely mentioned that from 2003, the OSCE is already participating in police sector reform in Kyrgyzstan, within which 4,000 police officers have been trained already. Between 2003 and 2010, the OSCE has spent US$ 6.75 million on various projects for police reform, and a large share of this money was spent in Osh.
The negative reactions to deploying the Advisory Group are closely connected to the negative image in Kyrgyzstan of the OSCE as an institution. Before Kazakhstan’s chairmanship, the OSCE was considered a promoter of human rights by European standards. However, that image is now changing. After Kazakhstan’s actions to prevent Kyrgyz citizens of Uzbek nationality from entering Kazakhstan during the Osh events, the OSCE is commonly considered to display double standards.
CONCLUSIONS: In Bishkek, doubts are growing over the deployment of the OSCE Police Advisory Group in the context of the ongoing hot debates over the parliamentary elections. Despite continuing consultations between the Kyrgyz government and the OSCE, new political groups will come to power in October and will decide whether the consultations will continue or the initiative will be rejected. Today, questions regarding the mission’s duration and Kyrgyzstan’s right to request the mission are discussed intensively. The issue of introducing the Advisory Group once again demonstrated the variety of interests in Kyrgyzstan’s politics, in which there is no single decision-making center. For the opposition parties, Otunbaeva’s decision to postpone the decision to after the election period is a symbolic victory in itself. However, it is questionable whether the new parliament will be capable of consolidating political groups. The election results will likely cause many multiple disagreements across the fragmented political landscape, which may in turn lead to renewed political instability. In this context, the OSCE will likely devote its efforts to election monitoring, rather than on deploying the Advisory Group.
AUTHOR’S BIO: Asel Murzakulova is a Senior Lecturer at the Oriental Studies andInternational Relations Department of the Bishkek Humanities University, Kyrgyzstan.
