TERRORIST ACTS THREATEN TO DESTABILIZE TAJIKISTAN
On September 3, a heavy explosion occurred in an administrative building of Tajikistan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs in the northern city of Khujand. A suicide bomber drove a car into the building of the Regional Department against Organized Crime in the city of Khujand, which is the administrative centre of Tajikistan’s Sughd province. This was Tajikistan’s first experience of a terrorist act committed by a suicide bomber.
The act of terror was committed early morning on September 3, when two ministerial cars were entering the area of the department. Unexpectedly, another car followed them and stormed into the court of the department, hit the building and exploded. According to official data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, 26 law-enforcement officers, department staff members, and two civilians were injured. At least two officers died. The suicide bomber is also among the dead, and his identity has not yet been established. According to unofficial data, there were two suicide bombers and more than two dead persons among the law-enforcement officers.
Preliminary information on the terrorist act suggests it was prepared and implemented by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), a terrorist group active in the Central Asian region. However, there are several other versions. Representatives of the Ministry of Internal Affairs state that the terrorist act was prepared by an organized crime group either as an attempt to impede investigative actions or as an act of revenge.
Meanwhile, local experts warn about a worsened security situation in Tajikistan due to several destabilizing events in a short period of time. The suicide bomber attack in Khujand occurred just a week after twenty five high-profile convicts escaped from a high-security detention centre in Dushanbe. Up to now, only four fugitives have been captured. The other fugitives are still free and have attacked several security points of the Ministry of Defense in the south of Tajikistan.
Furthermore, another explosion occurred on September 5, in a Dushanbe night club. This time, a small explosive device injured seven civilians. According to the official statement of the law-enforcement authorities, the primary lead suggests it was a terrorist act. Based on preliminary action, two persons suspected of preparing the explosion were detained.
Although there is no proven connection between all these incidents, experts believe that there are some logical connections between the prison break of twenty five high-profile convicts and the terrorist act in Khujand. Independent expert Sulton Hamadov claims that the first incident caused the second one. Hamadov believes that the prison break revealed the weaknesses of the law enforcement apparatus in Tajikistan and, thus, certain groups interested in destabilizing Tajikistan became more active. It should be noted that the majority of analysts agree that last week’s incidents display the inability of Tajikistan’s authorities to manage the critical situation.
Some other experts go even further, claiming a risk of future similar incidents, since a majority of the population is dissatisfied with the current government. One local expert, Parviz Mullojanov, states the reasons for such dissatisfaction are “a high level of corruption, the inefficiency of economic reforms, and a disastrous situation in agricultural sector”. According to him, if the government will not learn its lesson from the recent incidents, all these problems may worsen.
Another widespread opinion among experts is that the current destabilization in Tajikistan is encouraged by external factors. Abdugani Mamadazimov, another expert, claims that some “external forces” use the current internal dissatisfaction among the population, social tension and mistakes made by the government in order to destabilize the situation in Tajikistan. This point is supported, he claims, by the fact that the Khujand attack was committed by a suicide bomber, a method which was not used in Tajikistan even during the civil war in the 1990s, when terror was a common occurrence. Thus, Mamadazimov claims that the “shahid” method “was imported from without”.
In the current situation, the Tajik Government is under serious pressure to bring the situation in Tajikistan back to security and stability. As a response to recent incidents, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon decided to replace representatives at all the leading positions, including the head, of Tajikistan’s State Committee for National Security. However, it is yet unclear whether this is an adequate move in a situation when rapid and timely response of this state body is needed. gust 16, Turkmenistan is also ready to help to rebuild the transportation and communication network by supplying electricity, constructing hospitals and schools in neighboring Afghanistan. Considering Berdimuhammedov’s enthusiasm to expedite the final agreement and the international support for the project, the TAPI appears to be a viable and geopolitically significant project. ies displaying less hostile relations with Russia may lack the motivation to help Georgia on these issues.
