KYRGYZSTAN FACES INTERETHNIC CONFLICT AND HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE

By Joldosh Osmonov (06/24/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)

At midnight on June 10, what started as a conflict between young people in one of the casinos in Osh, the largest city in southern Kyrgyzstan, led to bloody, inter-ethnic clashes between the Kyrgyz and Uzbek communities. A few days later, mass unrest rapidly spread to the neighboring region of Jalalabad, leading to chaos in the entire southern part of the country. It took more than a week for the authorities to take control of the situation.

According to the most recent official estimates, 208 people died and more than 2,000 were injured. However, independent sources claim that the death toll is significantly higher. Roza Otunbaeva, the head of the Kyrgyz Interim Government, confessed that the number of deaths may be as much as ten times those stated in the official data.

These events resulted in mass flight from the conflict zones to other regions of the country and neighboring Uzbekistan. At least 400,000 internally displaced persons and refugees have left their homes due to the violent conflict, stated Elisabeth Byrs, spokesperson for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. She reported that around 100,000 fled to southern Uzbekistan seeking refuge, where they were housed in 75 refugee camps near Andijan city, whereas others were internally displaced within Kyrgyzstan. Meanwhile, as the deputy head of the Kyrgyz Border Service Cholponbek Turusbekov reported, refugees have started returning to their homes from Uzbekistan. “More than 7,000 refugees have already come back to their homes in the regions of Osh and Jalalabad,” he stated in his interview with local “Azzatyk” news agency on June 19.

In response to the turmoil, the Kyrgyz authorities declared a state of emergency in Osh city and two “conflict-infected” rayons, Aravan and Kara Suu, on June 11. Later, the armed tensions spread to other rayons and the neighboring Jalalabad region, and the Interim government was forced to bring army units into the conflict zones. On June 13, the Interim leader signed a decree on partial mobilization throughout the country. Approximately 1,200 men eligible for military service were called up, Otunbaeva stated in an interview with a local news agency. However, as the clashes de-escalated, new conscripts were sent home on the condition that they join the armed forces if conditions necessitate their service.

The day after the conflict erupted, Otunbaeva appealed to Russia to send peacekeeping forces to help settle the conflict. However, Russian authorities refused, saying that the unrest is an “internal issue of the country”. Simultaneously, Russian President Medvedev called for “urgent consultations” with the Security Council Secretaries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) member-states.  As a result of the meeting, the CSTO will provide Kyrgyz troops with logistical equipment, including nine military helicopters, Kyrgyz Security Council Secretary Alik Orozov stated. The CSTO is also contemplating sending a group of professionals specializing in conflict prevention and the detection and elimination of armed instigators.

Members of the interim government were quick to announce that the conflict was provoked and planned by former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s family and his allies. “There is no doubt that Bakiyev’s family has orchestrated these violent events and we have enough evidence to prove it”, Otunbaeva claimed at her recent press conference. The Interim leader claimed the main goal of fanning the inter-ethnic clashes was to undermine the upcoming Constitutional Referendum, which is scheduled for June 27.

Kubatbek Baibolov, deputy head of the National Security Service and the Jalalabad region commandant, blamed the younger brother of the ousted President, Janysh Bakiyev, who is reportedly hiding in Tajikistan, for igniting the armed tensions using foreign armed militants and local criminals. “Well-trained and equipped mobile groups of 100 to 120 militants are driving around in cars in the conflict zones and shooting at representatives of both ethnic groups”, Baibolov stated. “Some of them are detained and currently are giving testimonies.”

It is interesting to note that Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s younger son Maksim, who is assumed to be sponsoring the bloody events, was detained in an airport in London on June 13. The reason for his detention, as British authorities claim, was that Maksim Bakiev lacked the necessary documents to enter the country. A few days after the incident, he asked the British government for political asylum. In the meantime, the Kyrgyz Prosecutor General’s office sent an extradition request to their London colleagues.

The ousted Kyrgyz President has denied all allegations, claiming that the Interim government has no evidence to prove its statements. “In light of their incapability to control the situation in the country, it is easy for them to lay the blame at my door”, he stated at a press conference in Minsk, Belarus, on June 14.

Many local political experts agree that the conflict was artificially ignited by Bakiyev’s supporters. However, others claim the scenario was expected to occur sooner or later without “external interference”. Toktogul Kakchekeev, a local security expert, claims these bloody events were the results of the “ill-conceived and half-baked long-term policy of the authorities … The government could have reduced the conflict potential if it would have constantly monitored the mood of the population in the south,” he concluded.

While the heated debates on the topic of “who is guilty” continue, international organizations such as the International Committee of the Red Cross and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, as well as local NGOs have warned that a severe humanitarian crisis is brewing in southern Kyrgyzstan.