UNWELCOME CRISIS AHEAD OF GEORGIA’S ELECTIONS
A most unwelcome series of events have unfolded in the few weeks remaining until Georgia’s Parliamentary Elections, scheduled for May 21. Russia has during April moved to reinforce its ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, allegedly downed a Georgian unmanned reconnaissance aircraft over Abkhazia, and demonstratively declared its intention to increase the manpower of its peacekeeping contingent in the region. As these developments are understood in Tbilisi as steps toward a Russian de facto annexation of its two breakaway regions, tensions in Georgian-Russian relations have increased commensurately over the last month.
Russia’s aggressive actions against Georgia’s breakaway regions pose a real and troubling threat to Georgia’s national security and territorial integrity. These have likely thwarted most chances for the implementation of the unprecedentedly compromise-oriented peace plans for Abkhazia and South Ossetia presented by Tbilisi during March. Moreover, if Moscow continues to pursue its policy toward the breakaway regions in the manner it has envisioned, Tbilisi may well see itself as forced to respond in a way not precluding military action. Such a development could in a worst case scenario involve direct confrontation between Georgian and Russian forces, as the Russian MFA’s special envoy for relations with CIS states on April 25 officially stated it will consider military action in the regions in order to “protect Russian citizens”, should Georgia seek to resolve the conflicts by force.
These developments obviously cast a dark shadow over the political climate in Georgia ahead of the Parliamentary Elections. Georgian politics remain as polarized as ever, and the fact that Georgia is forced to deal with a serious external threat while simultaneously managing the hitherto most contested Georgian elections ever impedes the prospects for a constructive pre-election climate, and significantly increases the risks also of domestic unrest. However, while the threat posed by Russia is considerable, all political sides are also likely to capitalize on the crisis for election purposes.
For President Saakashvili and the United National Movement, the crisis is not only the most severe challenge to Georgia’s territorial integrity faced during its time in power; it also constitutes an opportunity for the President and the ruling party to retain their image as the country’s responsible leaders. The government has sought to urge the opposition forces to return to the negotiating table, for discussions on other topics than the January Presidential Elections and reforms of the Election Code, which have been hotly contested during the spring. For this purpose, the President on April 23 offered opposition leaders a format for regular meetings on national security matters and Georgia’s relationship with Russia.
The opposition, however, has refused to attend meetings with the President, whom they consider illegitimate due to alleged violations during the January 5 Presidential Election. Representatives of the nine-party opposition coalition have termed the invitation a mere PR stunt, intended to force the opposition into renewed negotiations. Furthermore, in spite of the Georgian government’s apparent restrain in reacting to the crisis, representatives of the opposition coalition have accused the President of consciously fueling the crisis in order to gain public support ahead of the Elections, and that Mr. Saakashvili himself bears the responsibility both for Georgia’s failure to gain a Membership Action Plan with NATO and the increasingly strained relationship with Russia.
Representatives of the small but loud Labor party, which is not part of the opposition coalition, went even further, stating that President Saakashvili and the UNM plan to thwart the Parliamentary Elections through launching a military campaign in the conflict zones and that the only acceptable topic for negotiations was the President’s resignation. The Republican Party has stated it would meet with the Parliamentary Chairperson or the Prime Minister for consultations on the topic; however meetings with the President himself are ruled out.
These reactions are clear manifestations of the polarization and lack of trust between the parties in Georgian politics. Indeed, recent events serve to drive the political factions further apart and further radicalize the political climate. The crisis will most likely be a key focus of Georgian politics ahead of the elections. This will impede the prospects for a constructive campaigning climate, as it further reduces the room for issue-based political debate and instead opens for militaristic rhetoric and mutual allegations of treason. Much of Georgia’s international reputation depends on the conduct of the Parliamentary Elections of May 21, and the fact that these are to take place under severe Russian pressure does not help.
